Rookies often carry unrealistic expectations into their first seasons in the NFL, but by the time they get to their second year, we have a better understanding of the player and how their team views them. With dynasty being a game where we always have to be mindful of market fluctuations, now is a good time to consider what will be a success or failure for these second-year players.
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2023 Second-Year Players
Chris Olave (WR – NO): ADP WR8
Despite the Saints’ quarterback situation being less than bountiful for fantasy purposes in 2022, Olave had a breakout rookie season with almost a thousand yards and 2.25 yards per team pass attempt. He led all rookie wide receivers in half PPR per game with 10.7. If it wasn’t for missing a couple of games, he would have been the rookie WR1 in total points.
Olave had the 13th most deep targets at the position. With a QB upgrade on the way, he’s only trending north. He is potentially on the cusp of a true jump into the elite WR tier. While it might feel expensive to buy him at the moment, it might cost a whole lot more in another year.
Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA): ADP RB10
The Seahawks could easily have rolled into 2023 with Walker as their lead running back, but they seemingly weren’t content to stand on what they had and drafted Zach Charbonnet with the 52nd pick. This came on the back of Walker being the RB16 in half PPR points per game and scoring more points than any other rookie running back in an impressive debut season.
Between weeks 4 and 10, Walker was the RB6 across a period where he averaged 16.1 points per game, looking like a true league winner. Down the stretch, he got banged up and his numbers suffered with significant dips in missed tackles, big-run percentage and touchdown rate.
Walker averaged the 15th highest opportunity share among running backs in 2022. That was in part due to Rashaad Penny missing all but five games. Now, with Charbonnet set to play a healthy portion of snaps, it’s fair to question if Walker’s value has already peaked in dynasty.
Rachaad White (RB – TB); ADP RB20
Tampa hasn’t brought in any competition of note for White who is now primed to have every opportunity to prove he is a three-down back. White was a good pass-catcher in 2022, with the third-highest catch rate among all running backs who had 50 or more receptions. In the ground game, however, he left much to be desired, ranking 140th in Expected Points Added and 51st in Juke Rate.
White struggled to be efficient. Now, he no longer has Tom Brady throwing him the ball. We could see White’s value drop steeply this year. If you’re not a contender and you can trade him for a first-round pick, it might be time to consider it.
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