Our analysts have put together fantasy football outlooks for all fantasy-relevant players. You can find them on our player pages and via our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). These will be updated throughout the preseason to help you navigate your fantasy football drafts utilizing our bevy of tools, including our FREE draft simulator and cheat sheet creator. We’ll cover players in different groups to help you identify those to target and others to avoid. Let’s take a look at our predictions for third-year players.
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Fantasy Football Third-Year Player Predictions
Here are 2023 fantasy football outlooks for third-year players.
After finishing runner-up in the Offensive Rookie of the Year balloting in 2021, Mac Jones regressed slightly in his second NFL season, with slight dips in yards per attempt, completion percentage and TD rate. Jones averaged 214.1 yards per game, with 14 TD passes and 11 INTs in 14 games. Jones offers little value as a runner, and he might already be near his ceiling as a passer. Consider Jones a fantasy backup whose primary value is that he seems entrenched as New England’s starter for at least one more season, barring a challenge from young backup Bailey Zappe.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
Justin Fields was electric as a runner in 2022. If he can significantly boost his passing numbers in 2023, look out. Fields ran for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns last season, averaging a league-high 7.1 yards per carry. He ran for 178 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins in Week 9, breaking the single-game rushing record for a quarterback — then ran for 147 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions the following week. But Fields averaged 149.5 passing yards per game and topped the 200-yard mark only twice in 2022. In his defense, Fields was saddled by a mediocre offensive line and arguably the worst WR group in the league. The Bears have already traded for WR D.J. Moore and figure to bolster their offensive line in the NFL Draft, giving Fields a chance to make the same sort of quantum leap that Jalen Hurts made in 2022.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
Khalil Herbert was better than David Montgomery in nearly every single rushing metric in 2022. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry to Montgomery’s flat 4.0 yards per carry average. Herbert rushed for just 70 fewer yards on 72 fewer carries. Monty’s rushing EPA of -15.3 ranked 32nd while Herbert’s 1.17 rushing EPA ranked 12th. Had Herbert not gotten hurt in Week 10 versus the Detroit Lions, there was a non-zero chance he would have completely usurped Montgomery as the team’s lead back.
In the two games that Herbert led the backfield due to a Montgomery injury, the Bears second-year rusher averaged 117 rushing yards and 19.5 carries. Herbert also has just had as many career games (4) as Montgomery with at least 90 rushing yards.
With Monty leaving in free agency, the rebuilding Bears let him walk and added D’Onta Foreman to join the backfield. Foreman’s flashes of high-end early-down starting potential for two straight seasons are going to earn him opportunities in Chicago. Even though Herbert has shown out on limited opportunities, it’s hard to envision anything but another usage split between Herbert and Foreman similar to the split between Herbert and Montgomery last season.
Foreman and Herbert earned nearly identical rushing EPA per attempt last year (inside the top 15). Fantasy managers might be best off taking the cheaper of the two in drafts because there may not be a true No. 1 rusher in the Windy City unless there’s an injury. If the Bears are as run-heavy as they were last season, there’s a chance that both can return value, but keep in mind that Justin Fields‘ own rushing will take away volume chances from both backs.
Fantasy managers also have to consider 4th-round rookie draft selection, Roschon Johnson. Johnson’s efficient rushing style, bell-cow size and pass-protection props figure to complicate the Bears backfield into a potential three-headed monster.
-Andrew Erickson
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