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NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 4 (2023 Fantasy Football)

NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 4 (2023 Fantasy Football)

This was my first losing week in DFS on DraftKings, and the culprit was (wouldn’t you know it) the defense! I won about 50% of my head-to-head, a number that would have jumped to over 90% if I had rolled with the Bills D over the Jets. Oh well, can’t win ’em all. What we can do is get a jump on week 4 with a look at the potential mispricings to exploit. Remember to follow me on Twitter @jac3600!

Quarterback

Russell Wilson (QB – DEN) ($5,800) @ CHI

The Denver Broncos are (predictably) taking a lot of heat after their 0-3 start, and Russell Wilson once again has one of the main targets on his back. For fantasy, however, he’s actually been quite good. Wilson has thrown back-t0-back 300-yard games en route to being the overall QB9 through three weeks. The Denver/Chicago game is a gross-fest in the real-life world, but both Swiss-cheese defenses should provide a lot of upside for fantasy. Chicago has allowed the sixth most FPPG to opposing QBs, and Wilson quietly has a solid 6:2 TD:INT ratio as well.

Jimmy Garoppolo/Brian Hoyer (QB – LV) ($5,300/$4,900) @ LAC

Jimmy G is currently in the concussion protocol, so we’ll have to see how his week progresses. Either way, both QBs are too cheap in the ultimate matchup against the Chargers. Through three weeks, the Bolts have allowed by far the most FPPG to QBs, and also opponent finishes of QB1 (Tua), QB15 (Tannehill), and QB4 (Cousins). The cheap price tags on each Raider QB unlock a multitude of upsides, especially when Davante Adams is your WR1.

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Running Back

D’Andre Swift (RB – PHI) ($5,700) vs WAS

This is an easy one. D’Andre Swift played Monday night, so his price was released before that game actually started. As such, he’s priced in a way that suggests he MAY be back to sharing the backfield with Kenneth Gainwell. Monday night was evidence that that is just not true, as Swift brutalized a tough TB interior for 16-130-0 (8.1 YPC). Over the past two games, Swift has amassed 305 rushing yards while running for 7.2 YPC and has even received five targets in the passing game (we know Philly has the lowest rate of this in the NFL since Hurts took over as starting QB). Washington is a middling rush defense so far, but Swift’s price tag and talent render the matchup irrelevant.

Roschon Johnson/Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI) ($4,900/$4,700) vs DEN

Unfortunately, neither of these two RBs can be considered cash plays due to the fact that they’re in basically a 50/50 split of that backfield right now. In GPP, though, it’s wheels up on both. Sub-5k price tags are egregious for anyone who gets the pleasure of facing the Broncos rush D. If you’ve forgotten, I’ll refresh your memory. These Broncos just allowed Dolphins RBs to log 441 yards from scrimmage and a whopping eight TDs last Sunday (yes, you’re reading that correctly). It’s highly possible at least one of these guys goes off for Chicago this Sunday, and you’ll want exposure to both at those prices.

Wide Receiver

Adam Thielen (WR – CAR) ($4,400) vs MIN

Just when I wrote off Thielen after looking like dust in week one, he’s rebounded with 18 receptions on 23 targets and two TDs over the past two weeks. I still wonder when the bottom will fall out as far as his age goes, but he’s more than cheap enough to take the risk again this week. It’s clear Thielen is the number one target in the Panthers passing game no matter who’s under center, and I especially like his chances at double-digit targets again if Andy Dalton goes one more game. Minnesota is a prime matchup for WRs, allowing the third most FPPG and the highest YPA.

Josh Palmer (WR – LAC) ($4,000) vs LV

With poor Mike Williams sidelined for the season with a torn ACL, Josh Palmer is expected to step right back into the number two role. We’ve already seen Palmer succeed when stepping in for the oft-injured Williams, and 4k is simply too cheap for him in this high-octane Chargers offense. Even in a part-time role on Sunday, Palmer still logged seven targets after replacing Williams, and the LV secondary is not a matchup to fear.

Tight End

Mark Andrews (TE – BAL) ($5,400) @ CLE

Normally, in tight-end land, we look for the most exploitable sub-4k player, but as of this writing, nothing’s standing out. This puts my focus on Mark Andrews, who should NEVER be as cheap as $5400. Despite a slow start (for him), Andrews is still fantasy’s TE7 in FPPG. He’s also still second among TEs in team targeted rate and fourth in the league in fantasy points per route run. This is a guy who is routinely priced right in the 7k range, so this is a bargain I’m willing to spend a little more on in week 4.

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