October baseball is as good as it gets, although it is a much different game, particularly for starting pitchers. Be wary of the enticing short lines the books are offering for some of these stud starters. The leashes are short and the hooks are quick in this playoff environment.
Here are the best Sleeper Picks plays worth considering for today, Wednesday, October, 4th.
Wednesday’s Best MLB Sleeper Picks Player Predictions
This season: 74-60-9
As stated in the intro, starters are quick to be relieved in the playoffs. Take a look at this article for more details on the regular season and playoff differences. If Sonny Gray gets rocked early on, he could get pulled before allowing five hits. The more likely scenario in my head is Sonny shutting them down for five innings before getting the hook.
Gray has had his way with the Jays roster in the past. They own a paltry .189 batting average and .303 xwOBA in 110 plate appearances against him. He ranked in the 91st percentile in xERA, 90th in xFIP, and 82nd in H/9 among all starters this season. One interesting caveat with Gray was how quick his manager, Rocco Baldelli, has been to pull him from the game at times. There were countless outings where Sonny was pulled after five innings albeit with a low pitch count. Baldelli has been known to give the quick hook in the past, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him removed from the game after just five innings.
Miami has their backs against the wall following yesterday’s 4-1 loss to Philadelphia. They will once again send out a Southpaw to take on the Phillies tonight with Braxton Garrett. Unlike Jesus Luzardo, Garrett has miserable numbers facing this Phillies squad. Their roster owns a .444 xwOBA and a 17.8% K% in 73 combined plate appearances.
In a win-or-go-home scenario, the leash will undoubtedly be extremely short for Garrett. He typically isn’t one to have a large pitch count as it is, and on the season averaged just 81 pitches per start. Garrett’s out prop is currently listed at 13.5 outs and he will probably get two turns through the order before the bullpen takes over. Garrett stayed under this mark in six of his final nine regular season starts.
Alright, I’ll bite at this number. Admittedly, Nathan Eovaldi has not looked great since returning from the injured list. With that being said, he found some strikeouts in his final two outings with a 27.5% K%. He struck out six and five in those respective outings and we’re only asking for four punchouts here. Eovaldi has the playoff pedigree and success facing this Rays roster as well. They have a 26.3% K% and .251 xwOBA in 80 combined plate appearances against him. Asking for four strikeouts is not a huge ask and he should be able to get it done even if he leaves the game after three or four innings.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
- Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football: Lions vs. Packers (Week 4)
- NFL Thursday Night Football Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks: Packers vs. Lions (Week 4)
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- College Football Week 5 Picks & Predictions: Bogman’s Best Bets
Tyler Gentile is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tyler, follow him @808Paperboi