Welcome to FantasyPros’ weekly pace and efficiency report. Each week of the season, we’ll survey trends in snap count totals while examining pace and efficiency data. Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and teams that run more plays have more opportunities to score fantasy points.
Snap counts are the product of pace and efficiency, so examining each factor provides insight into future game environments, changes in coaching philosophy, and offensive growth or decline throughout the season.
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Fantasy Football Week 7 NFL Pace & Efficiency Preview (2023)
Teams Projected for High Week 7 Snap Counts
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams may have found themselves a permanent home in this article subset. They’re among the league’s top teams in pace and efficiency, making them a weekly favorite to run a ton of plays. This week, they get the Steelers, albeit off a bye. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in plays/60 minutes and dead last in CER. I like the Rams, who are concentrated on where their opportunities go to dominate this game.
The output in terms of plays/60 minutes has been somewhat disappointing for the Bills, but this is a team we want to continue to target, especially this week. They will travel to Foxborough, Mass., to take on the Patriots, a team with an inept offense. Ironically, they run one of the fastest paces in the league. I’m projecting all this will do is get them off of the field faster. I expect a bounce-back game for Buffalo in what should be a good spot.
I could have easily made this a double feature with the Dolphins, as well, but I actually think this sets up better for Philadelphia. While both teams possess an elite CER, the Eagles have run a significantly higher number of plays/60 minutes and have a significantly better defense. While Miami’s offense has looked borderline unstoppable, in their lone game where they were tested, they were blown out by the Bills. There’s certainly always the concern that Miami backdoors into a high play count, but in their loss to Buffalo, they still ran just 58 plays.
Teams Projected for Low Week 7 Snap Counts
There’s not really anything on paper that gets you excited about Washington’s offense. They’re not fast or efficient. The Giants aren’t efficient either, but they actually have run a solid amount of plays. The only way Washington could run a good amount of plays would be a blowout, backdoor situation. Though, I think that’s unlikely, as the Giants haven’t even sniffed the positive end of a blowout this season.
The Titans and the Jets are both on bye this week, so it’s a little tougher to identify teams who might run a low snap count. For all the reasons I laid out in my bull case for the Rams, I think Pittsburgh is an avoid this week.
Justin Fields has already been announced as out for Sunday, so the Bears will turn to Division II rookie UDFA Tyson Bagent. I have a hard time believing they get anything going on offense with Bagent under center on a team that already has been among the slowest teams in the NFL.
Notes & Trends
- The biggest riser in CER this week is the New Orleans Saints. They’ve had a very soft schedule to start. What’s more interesting is this week’s second-bigger riser, the Los Angeles Rams. I’ve been pleasantly surprised by the Rams. LA’s roster is the second-youngest in the NFL, which usually means rebuilding teams that won’t be competitive. However, the Rams are now 3-3 and have been competitive in every game they’ve lost. Cooper Kupp is back and looking as good as new. This is a team to watch out for as the season progresses.
- The biggest faller in CER this week is the Arizona Cardinals. It appears as though their early-season magic has been lost. Joshua Dobbs has averaged 5.5 yards per attempt over his last two games and now gets the Seattle Seahawks, who rank as the No. 1 run defense in DVOA, meaning Dobbs will be funneled into having to throw the ball even more. Things could get rough in Arizona sooner rather than later.
**Composite Efficiency Score is a statistic I created using regression analysis of the efficiency metrics on the table.
*** Matchup score is a weighted metric that accounts for a team's pace, efficiency and defense, as well as their opponent's, to show which matchup is most conducive for running a high number of plays