Welcome to FantasyPros’ weekly pace and efficiency report. Each week of the season, we’ll survey trends in snap count totals while examining pace and efficiency data. Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and teams that run more plays have more opportunities to score fantasy points.
Snap counts are the product of pace and efficiency, so examining each factor provides insight into future game environments, changes in coaching philosophy, and offensive growth or decline throughout the season.
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Fantasy Football Week 11 NFL Pace & Efficiency Preview (2023)
Teams Projected for High Week 11 Snap Counts
The Bills have been disappointing for most of the season, but they have a great spot to right the ship on Sunday. They will take their 94.9 CER into a matchup against a poor New York Jets team. The Bills haven’t been a great team in terms of volume, but I suspect that changes this week against this anemic Jets offense.
Dallas projects for yet another wacky game, where they find themselves as 10.5-point favorites on the road against the Carolina Panthers. The Cowboys are now top-five in both plays per 60 minutes and CER and now get a Carolina team that ranks 30th in CER. I like this game to unfold similar to Dallas’ previous game against the New York Giants, where they routed Big Blue and ran 77 plays.
I thought Cleveland’s absurd volume would slow down weeks ago, but it kept chugging along. The Browns have run an astounding 72 plays per 60 minutes, the highest figure in the NFL by almost four whole plays a game. This week, they host a Pittsburgh Steelers team that ranks 29th in plays per 60 minutes and 26th in CER. Cleveland should control this ball game and run a ton of plays en route to a victory.
Teams Projected for Low Week 11 Snap Counts
Chicago may get quarterback Justin Fields back this week, but that alone cannot keep them competitive with the Detroit Lions. The Lions are excellent on both offense and defense, while Chicago is below average offensively and defensively. The Lions should lock up Chicago and limit their play count in this matchup.
Rookie quarterback Will Levis injected some semblance of life into this team, but it’s still a pretty awful group of players. They are dead last in both plays per 60 minutes and pace and also post a mere 31.3 CER throughout these first 10 weeks. The Jacksonville Jaguars are desperate for a bounce-back game, and I think this is their perfect spot. Tennessee should struggle in this one and run few plays.
For all of the reasons I mentioned above for why I love the Cowboys, I also hate the Panthers this week. In some situations and against some teams, the Panthers could end up backdooring their way into a respectable snap count (hence why they’ve run a solid 65.9 plays per 60 minutes). But as we saw this past week, Dallas is not one to take their foot off the pedal until the game is far, far out of reach. I’m avoiding Panther players this week where it makes sense.
Notes and Trends
- The biggest riser in CER this week is the Lions. They seem to be rebounding well after a disastrous showing against the Baltimore Ravens a few weeks back. They should continue their upward offensively trajectory this week against a poor Bears squad.
- The biggest faller in CER this week is the Titans. As I wrote above, it's so hard to be competent on offense when you play so slow and run so few plays. Tennessee has played like this for awhile, and it used to work when their team was better and they were often playing from ahead, but it's a useless strategy when you continually find yourself as the underdog.
**Composite Efficiency Score is a statistic I created using regression analysis of the efficiency metrics on the table.
*** Matchup score is a weighted metric that accounts for a team's pace, efficiency, and defense, as well as their opponent's, to show which matchup is most conducive for running a high number of plays