Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways: Alvin Kamara, Odell Beckham, Dalton Kincaid (Week 15)

Hello and welcome to the Week 15 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. You’ll notice that I’ve added a second chart to each section. This is the same chart that you’re used to seeing for each section, but looking purely at the last four weeks. As we move through the season, the more recent weeks should hold more weight so this will give you a snapshot of more recent usage and trends! Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.

Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its pace over expected, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster than expected) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares player weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his yards per route run (YPRR), with the size of the player’s point as his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity, while yards per route run is a measure of one’s efficiency with the routes (and targets) he’s given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.

Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways

Team Pace and Plays

On Saturday night (yes, you read that right), we have two teams heading in opposite directions as the Detroit Lions (losers of two of their last three games) host the Denver Broncos (winners of six of their last seven). This game total is currently sitting at around 46.5 or 47 (depending on where you look) and that is entirely too high for me. First, these teams both like to take their time. This season the Broncos have yet to play a game in which their pace is faster than expected. While they’ve used no-huddle at a league-high 15.9% rate over the last four weeks, Denver still snaps the ball with less than 10 seconds on the play clock at a 75.6% rate. Detroit, meanwhile, has actually played pretty fast, but that’s because they’ve been expected to with their negative game scripts. Their pace, however, shifts dramatically slower when they are leading games. But, even if Detroit plays quickly, Denver’s defense has fared well lately and could hold down an offense that has been in a funk. Finally, as you’ll see below, the Lions have been one of the most run-heavy teams of late, which (as I’ve mentioned before) will lead to the clock winding down more during the game. Denver has been similarly run-driven with a -8% PROE or lower in three of their last five games and a season-high PROE of just 0.6%.
- Action: bet under 47 total points (down to 46.5)

Team Pass Rates

The Lions have been doing whatever they can to hide Jared Goff the past couple of weeks. Despite trailing game scripts in three of their last four games, they’ve returned PROE values of -10.1%, -7.8%, -11.9%, and -12.0%. This gives them a -10.2% PROE over the last four weeks that would make only Arthur Smith proud. Though the fantasy production hasn’t been there for Amon-Ra St. Brown, he’s still earning targets at a hefty rate with an average of 9.25 targets per game over that four-week span. Both he and Sam LaPorta have combined for nearly 50% of Detroit’s targets, leaving very little opportunities for pass catchers outside of those to with how infrequent Detroit passes. While Jameson Williams has shown some flashes with a couple of explosive plays, he has more than three targets in a game just once and has yet to eclipse a 70% routes run rate. The volume just isn’t there for the Lions, nor do I think it will be there, for any ancillary players to make you confident in starting them.
- Action: fade any pass catchers not named Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta

Running Back Usage

Christian McCaffrey is the most valuable running back — perhaps player — in fantasy football. There’s no need to hash out his usage, but as we enter the fantasy playoffs picking up the right handcuffs is paramount, so let’s dive into which of Elijah Mitchell or Jordan Mason are worth a potential add. Mitchell entered the season as the backup but has missed a handful of games due to repeated knee injuries. If he’s healthy, though, I prefer him over Mason despite Mason getting five touches in Sunday’s win. The work that Mitchell has gotten has come when the 49ers are in their games as 38.6% of his carries and 42% of his snaps this year have been in the first half. That’s compared to a 25.9% snap rate and 20.4% carry rate for Mason. In all likelihood, this would become a split backfield should McCaffrey suffer an injury (knock on wood), but Mitchell also has more experience with the team overall and could give a slight edge to him.
- Action: prioritize adding Elijah Mitchell and then add Jordan Mason
Week 14 was the first week since Week 1 in which all of D’Onta Foreman, Roschon Johnson, and Khalil Herbert were active and, well, it was about as messy as expected. After a one-week injury absence, Foreman stepped back into the lead role with an uninspiring 13 touches for 72 scoreless yards on a 56% snap rate in a game that Chicago led from the jump. Behind him, Johnson out-snapped Herbert 27% to 18%, but got only one touch compared to Herbert’s three. So far this year, there have been just three instances of a Bears running back topping a 60% snap share (Herbert in Weeks 4 and 5 and Johnson in Week 12). While the Bears continue to be more of a run-forward team, Justin Fields’ rushing work has increased in recent weeks. Foreman still probably has the highest ceiling (relatively speaking) as he’s had four games this season with at least 15 opportunities (there are only two other instances of that happening among the remaining backs). But, I would prefer to hold one of the aforementioned 49ers backs than any of the Bears’ “backup” running backs given their ceiling is much higher with a similarly low floor.
- Action: hold (don’t start) D’Onta Foreman, fade Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert
The Saints continue to make mind-boggling decisions that I just don’t understand, one of which is taking Alvin Kamara off the field more and more lately. Kamara’s snap share has fallen in each of the last four games, starting at 74% in Week 10 down to his second-lowest snap share at 54% in Week 14. Conversely, Jamaal Williams’ snap share has risen in each of the last four games, topping out at a season-high 44% in games that Kamara was active along with a season-high 12 opportunities. Kamara’s total opportunities have dropped about six per game to 19.3 per game over the last four games compared to the previous six games. Now, that level of workload is still among the best in the league, don’t get me wrong, but his lower usage this week also came in a game in which Taysom Hill (noted touchdown vulture) did not play. Kamara still has a lock on the backfield’s HVTs as Williams has just eight since Kamara’s return, but he could siphon some of those if the Saints want to ease Kamara’s workload further. You’re still going to start Kamara, but Williams has become a higher-priority add.
- Action: add Jamaal Williams

Wide Receiver Usage

I’m not going to lie, the Odell Beckham revitalization project has been fun! Beckham has now recorded double-digit Half-PPR fantasy points in four of his last five games. What’s been most impressive is that he’s doing this on limited routes — he’s run a route on just 49% of the team’s dropbacks across those five games. But, he’s still earning a ton of targets with a 30% targets per route run rate. The only other Ravens receiver that I’m considering starting is Zay Flowers, who has run a route on every dropback over the last two weeks. He’s had some unfortunate drops that could have led to some bigger games, but Lamar Jackson still trusts him as evidenced by his team-leading 34.1% first-read target share (via Fantasy Points Data) over their last two games. The Ravens face a tougher schedule of opponents for the fantasy playoffs, but they are also teams that should force Baltimore to pass the ball more so I’m confident in starting Flowers and Beckham as a flex in somewhat deeper leagues.
- Action: buy and add Odell Beckham, start Zay Flowers
You’re starting Mike Evans, there’s no question about that. What I want to focus on here is whether you can trust Chris Godwin in your lineups for the fantasy playoffs. All season Godwin has been consistently running routes at an 87% rate, the issue of late has been his lack of targets. Last week, Bucs head coach Todd Bowles talked about needing to get Godwin the ball more and they did just that to the tune of a team-high 11 targets (his second-most in a game this season) and a season-high 38% target share. Unfortunately, he recorded just five catches for 53 scoreless yards. That said, I think this usage could continue because Tampa Bay is among the most concentrated passing attacks right now with few players outside of Godwin and Evans consistently getting targets. Godwin is more of a flex option at this point with a more stable PPR floor.
- Action: buy Chris Godwin
Right now, Will Levis only has eyes for DeAndre Hopkins. Since Levis’ first start in Week 8, Hopkins has a team-high 28% target share and there are only two other players above a 10% target share (Chigoziem Okonkwo and Tyjae Spears are both at 16%). Levis and his aggressive 9.8-yard aDOT are going to make production slightly less consistent, but it also raises Hopkins’ ceiling to the level of a mid-tier WR1 — in the games that Levis has started, Hopkins’ fantasy point production has ranged from 4.2 Half-PPR points to 32.8 points. Still, a 0.70 WOPR with Levis is an elite number and with two matchups against the Texans (26th in DVOA against WR1s and his former team) in the fantasy playoffs, Hopkins could be a league-winner.
- Action: buy DeAndre Hopkins and sell all other Titans pass catchers

Tight End Usage

The most notable thing to happen in the Chiefs vs. Bills game is that Dawson Knox made his return after a five-game stint on injured reserve. With his return, the Bills used 12 personnel at the highest rate they’ve used it at since Week 3. The Bills eased Knox back into things with just a 35% routes run rate (his lowest of the season), but he was targeted three times. Still, that didn’t seem to impact Dalton Kincaid’s routes as he was still at a staggering 88% routes rate and earned a 19% target share, his highest in a game with Knox this season. Perhaps this is an indication that he’s built some chemistry with Josh Allen and has officially supplanted Knox as a firm TE1. Kincaid did injure his shoulder in Sunday’s game and is considered day-to-day, but I’m still bullish on Kincaid as a TE1 through the playoffs with as high of a weekly ceiling as any.
- Action: buy Dalton Kincaid

Quick Hops

Chuba Hubbard has back-to-back games with 25 total opportunities while Miles Sanders has just 10 opportunities in each of those games. The Panthers’ offense is still the worst in the league, but you’d be hard-pressed to find volume like that anywhere else. Because of the types of touches he’s getting Hubbard profiles more like a low-end RB2.
Josh Downs has just eight total targets in the past two weeks combined despite running a route on 80% of the team’s dropbacks. Right now, Michael Pittman is a massive target hog with at least 11 targets in each of the last four games. With Gardner Minshew also spreading the ball around a bit more to the likes of Indy’s tight ends and running backs, I’m keeping Downs on my bench or using him sparingly as a flex in deeper leagues.
Rashee Rice has 10, 9, and 10 targets in the last three games and hit a season-high 82% routes-run rate. He’s officially earned the WR1 role in Kansas City and, even in a year when the Chiefs offense is struggling, that’s super valuable.
David Njoku has been awesome lately, averaging nearly eight targets per game over the last three games. But, the thing that’s most encouraging is that he’s getting more downfield targets. Prior to week 12, Njoku didn’t have an aDOT above six yards in a single game and now he’s been above that in three straight games and I expect that downfield usage to continue.