Welcome to FantasyPros’ weekly pace and efficiency report. Each week of the season, we’ll survey trends in snap count totals while examining pace and efficiency data. Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and teams that run more plays have more opportunities to score fantasy points.
Snap counts are the product of pace and efficiency, so examining each factor provides insight into future game environments, changes in coaching philosophy and offensive growth or decline throughout the season.
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Fantasy Football Week 14 NFL Pace & Efficiency Preview (2023)
Teams Projected for High Week 14 Snap Counts
The Texans experienced a stunning turnaround in the course of a year, both in efficiency and pace. Their Composite Efficiency Rating (CER) of 60.6 is miles ahead of the low single digits they possessed earlier in the year. They’ve gone from a mainstay in the low snap count portion of this article to the high snap count portion in less than a year. They just run a ton of plays this week against a struggling Jets team, who is yet to name a starter at QB this week, as of this writing.
Baltimore hasn’t often produced a ton of high snap outings, but they have all the makings of it week in and week out – and this week is no exception. The Los Angeles Rams’ offense, who the Ravens face in Week 14, has been quite capable at times and dreadful at others. I’m betting this is a week they’re dreadful, given how staunch Baltimore’s defense is. This should leave Baltimore with a high snap count.
I’m still not sure how good Indianapolis is, but they have been running a ton of plays largely due to their blazing fast 22.7 second neutral snap pace. Their opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals, looked good on Monday night, meaning they might push Indy keep its foot on the pedal which would create a higher play total.
Teams Projected for Low Week 14 Snap Counts
The Seahawks offense is by no means bad, they just don’t run a ton of plays. Their 59.6 plays/60 minutes ranks 28th in the NFL, and they have a particularly tough outlook against the red-hot San Francisco 49ers and their fourth-ranked defense in DVOA. Expect Seattle to be dominated and not run many plays.
Tennessee finally experienced what it is like to play modern NFL offense, running a stunning 81 plays in an overtime thriller. However, this was entirely game script dependent, and shouldn’t color our projections of their pace going forward. I expect them to get back to their slow, inefficient and snap count-deprived ways this week against Miami’s high-octane offense.
Denver left Sunday again this past week with fewer than 60 offensive snaps in a loss against the Texans. They have an interesting matchup against a puzzling Los Angeles Charger team that we know is capable of running up the scoreboard. This game could play out a myriad of different ways, but I just don’t see Denver running a ton of plays in any of them.
Notes and Trends
- The biggest riser in CER this week is the Bengals. I'm really not sure how sticky this will be, but backup quarterback Jake Browning looked good on Monday. Keep an eye on the Bengals this week as they take on the Colts.
- The biggest faller in CER this week is the Atlanta Falcons. This probably could be avoided if they had a head coach who know how to properly utilize his talent, but we can't always get what we want.
**Composite Efficiency Score is a statistic I created using regression analysis of the efficiency metrics on the table.
*** Matchup score is a weighted metric that accounts for a team's pace, efficiency, and defense, as well as their opponent's, to show which matchup is most conducive for running a high number of plays