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10 Top Super Bowl Player Prop Bet Picks: Chiefs vs. 49ers (2024)

10 Top Super Bowl Player Prop Bet Picks: Chiefs vs. 49ers (2024)

Super Bowl LVIII is here, with the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers meeting in Las Vegas this Sunday. Our own Pat Fitzmaurice, Derek Brown, and Andrew Erickson have been researching the lines at various books and comparing them to their own projections to identify their favorite bets. Here are our their favorite prop bet picks for Chiefs vs. 49ers.

The first step to building to profiting this week, whether you’re straight betting any of these lines or constructing some juicy parlays, is to pull up our Prop Bet Analyzer at Bettingpros.com and then follow our experts and turn on notifications to be notified when they are making picks:

NFL Super Bowl Player Prop Bet Picks

Christian McCaffrey Team First TD Scorer

The superstar running back was a touchdown machine this year. McCaffrey led the NFL in offensive touchdowns during the regular season (21), finding the end zone in 86.7% of the games he finished. More importantly, the superstar has been the heart and soul of the offense for the 49ers during the playoffs. He scored four of their seven touchdowns, including the first score in the win over the Detroit Lions. McCaffrey also scored the first San Francisco touchdown in 43.8% of his regular season games.

Kadarius Toney Anytime TD Scorer

Many will rightfully call this pick laughable. Toney has been a massive bust since entering the NFL. He has three receiving touchdowns in 20 regular-season games with the Chiefs, including one this year. The former Florida star also hasn’t played since Week 15, but he could suit up for the Super Bowl. Last year, Toney had a five-yard receiving touchdown in the Super Bowl win over the Eagles. After claiming he’s a No. 1 wide receiver this week, I’ll take a chance on him finding the end zone at 12-1.

Mike Fanelli

Brock Purdy UNDER 248.5 passing yards

I am leaning heavily toward the under on Purdy‘s passing yardage set at 248.5 passing yards. The Chiefs’ pass defense has held Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to sub-200 yard passing yards in two of the last 3 weeks. Only one QB their first team defense has faced in the last five weeks has gone for over 200 yards through the air. 7 of the last 10 QBs they have faced have gone UNDER their projected passing yards. Since Week 14 they have allowed two QB to go over 200 passing yards. Purdy has only tossed 250 yards thrice away from home this season.

Brock Purdy OVER 10.5 rushing yards

Purdy added a new dimension to the running game in the NFC Championship Game notching 48 yards on just five carries, highlighting his mobility and ability to escape pressure. The 49ers QB has 14 or more rushing yards in both of his postseason starts, so I lean toward the OVER on his 11.5 rushing yards prop. The projections have Purdy slated for a whopping 14.8 rushing yards for the Super Bowl in the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.

The Chiefs have faced the most rushing attempts and red-zone touches from QBs this season. They have also allowed 3 of the last 4 QB they have faced to go OVER their rushing yardage props, including 25 rushing yards at least to each opposing QB.

Andrew Erickson

Patrick Mahomes UNDER 261.5 passing yards

If you’re with me here, you might want to place this bet later in the week because this number could climb higher. The casuals are going to start plunking down their Super Bowl bets this week, and that crowd wants to bet on Mahomes, not against him. But Mahomes has fallen short of this number in four of his last five games, and the one time he cleared it during that stretch, he cleared it by only a half-yard, throwing for 262 yards against the Dolphins in the wild-card round. The 49ers have given up 231.7 passing yards per game this season, playoffs included. The Chiefs have good reason to strive for offensive balance in the big game rather than a pass-heavy approach. Mahomes has been dealing with a shortage of wide receiver firepower all season, and San Francisco is easier to run on than to throw on, ranking fourth in the league in DVOA vs. the pass and 15th in DVOA vs. the run. I think the under is a good bet at this number, and I’ll like it even more if Mahomes’ yardage total climbs even higher, as is likely to be the case.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 67.5 rushing yards (-125)

Ever since an embarrassing Christmas Day loss to the Raiders in Kansas City, the Chiefs have been hell-bent on making Pacheco a focal point of their offense. In the four games he’s played since the loss to Las Vegas, Pacheco has averaged 20.3 carries and 96.0 rushing yards. As noted above, it’s easier to run on the 49ers than to throw on them. In San Francisco’s two playoff games, they gave up 108 rushing yards to Green Bay’s Aaron Jones and 138 rushing yards to the Detroit tandem of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. I think Pacheco will clear this low bar, and I don’t hate the idea of betting the over on an alternate rushing total for Pacheco. I’ve already bet him to go over 84.5 rushing yards at +210 on DraftKings.

Pat Fitzmaurice

Brandon Aiyuk UNDER 63.5 Receiving Yards

Brandon Aiyuk will likely take a backseat to Samuel in the Super Bowl. As noted, Kansas City has deployed two-high on 77.2% of their defensive snaps in the playoffs. Since Week 10, against two-high, Aiyuk has had a 16.3% target share, a 29.9% air-yard share, 1.65 YPRR and a 24.7% first-read share. Aiyuk has hit the under for this line in five of his last nine games.

Rashee Rice OVER 6.5 Receptions

Rice and Kelce have been the pillars of the Kansas City aerial attack since Week 12. Rice should again fight Kelce for the team lead in targets in the Super Bowl. As noted, the 49ers have utilized two-high on 60.3% of their coverage snaps in the playoffs. Since Week 12, against two-high, Rice has led the team with a 22.2% target share and 2.99 YPRR while ranking only second to Kelce with a 28% first-read share. Rice has had at least seven receptions in six of his last nine games. 

Derek Brown

Travis Kelce Over 71.5 Receiving Yards

Call it chalky, call it what you want, but Kelce always shows up in the postseason. He has recorded 71+ receiving yards in 12 consecutive playoff games. Need I really say more? In what was supposed to be a difficult matchup in the AFC title game, all Catching Kelce did was secure all 11 of his targets for 116 yards and a touchdown. This isn’t necessarily an easy matchup on paper, either, as the 49ers have allowed some big games against elite tight ends. We just saw Lions tight end Sam LaPorta finish with a 9/97 line in the NFC championship, and in Week 15, Trey McBride had 10 grabs for 102 yards. Given the Chiefs lack of trustworthy pass-catching options, Mahomes will be turning to Kelce more often than not when he drops back to pass.

Deebo Samuel Over 4.5 Receptions

Alright, yes, it is a bit of a paradox to be taking an Over on another San Francisco receiver after preaching about how good the Chiefs secondary is, but Samuel is a unique case. He lines up all over the formation and Kyle Shanahan always finds a way to manufacture touches for him. Whether that is a touch-pass, or on the ground, Samuel will have plenty of looks coming his way and they are typically closer to the line of scrimmage.

His average depth of target in the regular season was just 6.6 yards. Against Detroit, when he caught eight balls for 89 yards, his aDOT was a paltry 4.4 yards. That’s perfect for this sort of prop, though. We don’t care about the yards; just give us the grabs, Deebo.

Tyler Gentile

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