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2024 NFL Draft: Live Grades & Fantasy Football Analysis (Round 1)

2024 NFL Draft: Live Grades & Fantasy Football Analysis (Round 1)

We’ve finally made it. The 2024 NFL Draft is here. With decisions made and trades accepted, teams are ready to make their selections (or more trades!). We’ll have you covered throughout the draft with real NFL and fantasy football reactions. This season, we have a live stream for Round 1 AND the entirety of Day 2 of the 2024 NFL Draft. We’ll also be active on social media and via our Discord channel where you can join fellow football fans as we all enjoy the 2024 NFL Draft. Let’s dive into each pick of Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft along with draft grades, player comps, and scouting reports.

2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Guide

2024 NFL Draft Round 1 Coverage

We’re going to share our draft grades for each pick of Round 1 below. Our analysts will each provide their grades, and we’ll share the consensus for each first-round selection in the table below. You’ll also get to see Thor Nystrom’s player comp for each rookie drafted tonight.

2024 NFL Draft Grades: Round 1

2024 NFL Draft Round 1 Picks & Scouting Reports

Andrew Erickson provides his NFL Draft scouting report for each player, while Thor Nystrom shares his Top 500, including player comps, overall prospect rankings, and positional prospect rankings.

No. 1 - Chicago Bears - Caleb Williams (QB - USC)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 1 Overall | QB1
  • Thor's Player Comp: Aaron Rodgers

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

The projected No. 1 overall pick, USC's Caleb Williams looks like the next coming of Patrick Mahomes. The off-script playmaking ability is so apparent with Williams, and that makes him deadly when paired with his elite production from a clean pocket. This past season, Williams posted PFF's highest grade without pressure. He also added 44 rushing yards per game, further highlighting his dual-threat skillset. At times in his final year at USC, Williams would often try to play too much hero ball. Case in point, Williams held the ball a ton (highest in the draft class) in 2023. That was something Justin Fields also struggled with at the NFL level.

No. 2 - Washington Commanders - Jayden Daniels (QB - LSU)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 2 Overall | QB2
  • Thor's Player Comp: Randall Cunningham

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Injuries withstanding, Jayden Daniels offers more as an under-the-radar game manager with strong fundamentals, accuracy and decision-making.
The other thing that is overlooked about Daniels - is his experience. 5 seasons of college ball. 55 games. And he capped it off with the 2023 Heisman Trophy as PFF's No. 1-graded passer.
With his ability to add value as a rusher and experience with five years under his belt, he can thrive even in a less-than-stellar landing spot. During his college tenure, Daniels rushed for over 3,300 yards - 60 rushing yards per game. Last year's third quarterback selected, Anthony Richardson, also averaged 60 rushing yards per game in the college ranks.

No. 3 - New England Patriots - Drake Maye (QB - UNC)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 4 Overall | QB2
  • Thor's Player Comp: Carson Pentz (Combination of Carson Palmer and Carson Wentz)

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

The former Tar Heel tied a bow on his collegiate career with 62 passing TDs and 16 interceptions. Even after taking a slight step backward in 2023 compared to his elite sophomore campaign, Maye shouldn't wait very long to hear his name called with scouts comparing his outlook to franchise QBs like Justin Herbert and Josh Allen.
In Maye's first year as a starter at UNC (2022) at 20 years of age, he finished with a top-5 PFF passing grade in the nation while leading his team in rushing yards. He averaged nearly 56 yards per game on the ground through his 2 years as a starter. He has a top-tier ceiling as an NFL quarterback.

No. 4 - Arizona Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR - Ohio State)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 4 Overall | QB2
  • Thor's Player Comp: A.J. Green

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Marvin Harrison's junior year further solidified his status as a premier talent, earning him a Heisman Trophy finalist nod; a rare feat for a wide receiver. He concluded the season with 67 receptions for 1,211 yards and 14 touchdowns, also contributing a rushing touchdown, underscoring his versatility and playmaking ability. That awarded him not only a 44% dominator rating (second-best mark in the class) but the 2023 Fred Biletnikoff Award bestowed to the best WR in college football.

No. 5 - Los Angeles Chargers - Joe Alt (OT - Notre Dame)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 6 Overall | OT1
  • Thor's Player Comp: Nate Solder

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Joe Alt was PFF's second-highest graded pass blocker in 2023 (91.2). Per Sports Info Solutions, Alt also posted the second-lowest blown block percentage (1%) among his classmates in 2023.

No. 6 - New York Giants - Malik Nabers (WR - LSU)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 5 Overall | WR2
  • Thor's Player Comp: Odell Beckham Jr.

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Malik Nabers, a junior wide receiver from LSU, made significant waves in the college football scene with his impressive 3-year career. Standing at 6 feet and weighing 200 pounds, Nabers led all college wide receivers during the regular season with 86 receptions for 1,546 yards and 14 touchdowns (34% dominator rating). Over his collegiate career, he accumulated 186 receptions for 2,983 yards and 21 touchdowns, showcasing his consistent development and explosive playmaking ability. His 28% career college dominator rating ranks 3rd among all WRs in the 2024 draft class. But what's more impressive is Nabers' age-adjusted production. Broke out at 18 years old in 2021 as a freshman. A great sign of things to come for him at the next level.

No. 7 - Tennessee Titans - JC Latham (OT - Alabama)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 10 Overall | OT2
  • Thor's Player Comp: Jawaan Taylor

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Alabama tackle JC Latham, can slide seamlessly into a NFL starting RT spot. Latham took a slight step back in 2023, as he was PFF's second-highest graded pass-blocker in 2022. But that Crimson Tide pedigree suggests he comes with a high floor.

No. 8 - Atlanta Falcons - Michael Penix Jr. (QB - Washington)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 40 Overall | QB5
  • Thor's Player Comp: Lefty Geno Smith

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

The 2023 Heisman Trophy runner-up led the NCAA in passing yards with 4,903 yards. He is viewed as one of the most accurate passers in the draft class - boasting the fourth-highest completion percentage on intermediate throws (10-19 yards) in the draft class last season. He also had the third-lowest pressure-to-sack rate (7%) which further highlights his playmaking abilities and his propensity to not eat drive-killing sacks. The soon-to-be 24-year-old didn't post high rushing totals, but that may have been more related to the offensive systems he played in college. His pro day featured a 4.58 40-yard dash, which is impressive for QB who has torn his ACL twice.

No. 9 - Chicago Bears - Rome Odunze (WR - Washington)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 7 Overall | WR3
  • Thor's Player Comp: Davante Adams

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Washington's Rome Odunze's four-year career with the Huskies has been marked by consistent improvement, with his junior year in 2022 marking his status as one of college football's best WRs: accumulating 75 catches for 1,145 yards, averaging 15.3 yards per reception, with 7 TDs.
The 2023 season saw further improvement, with the 6-foot-3 and 215-pound WR amassing 81 catches for 1,428 yards and 13 TDs, leading to a spot on the AP first team among other awards en route to a career-high 33% dominator rating. And that was accomplished with him battling through a reported broken rib and punctured lung in late September.
Overall, he finished with the 4th-highest dominator rating in the class at 26%. Also broke out at the early age of 19 years old, during his sophomore campaign.

No. 10 - Minnesota Vikings - J.J. McCarthy (QB - Michigan)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 3 Overall | QB3
  • Thor's Player Comp: Rich Gannon

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

J.J. McCarthy posted the third-highest adjusted completion percentage in the nation (80%) in 2023. McCarthy's throw air time below an expectation also ranked first in the class (-0.13). This is determined by throw distance and the quarterback's footwork when throwing. Per Sports Info Solutions a lower number is better, because in that case throws of the same distance are taking less time to get to the target.

Given the analytics background of Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, I am not surprised that Minnesota has been connected to quarterbacks Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy, both of whom are 21 years old. Age-adjusted production stands out in an analytical analysis.

No. 11 - New York Jets - Olumuyiwa Fashanu (OT - Penn State)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 21 Overall | OT5
  • Thor's Player Comp: Paris Johnson Jr.

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Penn State LT Olu Fashanu earned the 4th-highest PFF pass-blocking grade in the class in 2023.

No. 12 - Denver Broncos - Bo Nix (QB - Oregon)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 82 Overall | QB7
  • Thor's Player Comp: Kenny Pickett

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

The 24-year-old QB went through a full metamorphosis the last two years at Oregon after starting his long college career (NCAA record of 61 starts) at Auburn in 2019.

This past season Bo Nix set the record for the highest completion rate at 77.5%, breaking Mac Jones' record. However, a lot of this is based on the offense he played, given his average depth of target ranked 5th-lowest in the nation (6.8). A quick release - under 2.5 second to throw - helped Nix tie Michael Penix for one of the lowest pressure-to-sack rates in the 2024 QB class (7.6%).

The obvious concerns with Nix are his age, and how much more his game can improve when the competition level increases. Again, it's easy to be good when you have years of experience over all defenses you are facing.

He offers only a little bit of rushing - 33 rushing yards per game in college - which aligns with some past QBs such as Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence and Baker Mayfield. It likely won't be a staple of his fantasy profile in the NFL. It's possible Nix can have moments in the NFL in the right situation, but relying on him to deliver for an entire NFL season is a pipe dream.

No. 13 - Las Vegas Raiders - Brock Bowers (TE - Georgia)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 9 Overall | TE1
  • Thor's Player Comp: George Kittle

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

There's no better tight end prospect than Brock Bowers in this class. Or perhaps ever as Bowers is regarded as the greatest college football tight end of all time.

The former Bulldog tight end broke out immediately in 2021, posting a 28% dominator rating in his first season as a true freshman with 13 TDs and 882 receiving yards.

No. 14 - New Orleans Saints - Taliese Fuaga (OT - Oregon State)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 17 Overall | OT4
  • Thor's Player Comp: Darnell Wright

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Taliese Fuaga was PFF's second-highest graded tackle in 2023 lining up as the team's starting right tackle the past two seasons. And given that he can also play guard, teams will value him highly in this year's draft.

No. 15 - Indianapolis Colts - Laiatu Latu (EDGE - UCLA)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 12 Overall | EDGE1
  • Thor's Player Comp: Jaelan Phillips

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Laiatu Latu has size at 6-foot-5 and 265 pounds and pass-rushing production to fill the Cardinals' pass-rush devoid. Latu led the nation in pass rush win rate (40%) on true pass sets in 2023 as PFF's highest-graded pass-rusher. He comes with some scary injury red flags stemming from a neck injury in 2020 that almost ended his football career. Per Sports Info Solutions, Latu finished first in the class in pressure rate over expectation (17.2%), true pressure rate (30%) and tackles for loss per game (2.2).

No. 16 - Seattle Seahawks - Byron Murphy II (DL - Texas)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 13 Overall | DL1
  • Thor's Player Comp: Ed Oliver

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

The former Texas DT finished with the second-highest pass rush win rate (30%) on true pass sets in 2023 as an interior defender. Per PFF, he was the only interior defender to finish inside the top-10 in PFF pass-rush grade on true pass sets.

No. 17 - Minnesota Vikings - Dallas Turner (EDGE - Alabama)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 18 Overall | EDGE3
  • Thor's Player Comp: Nolan Smith

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Alabama's Dallas Turner comes NFL-ready from Nick Saban's defense, which will help him create an instant impact for an NFL's defensive line. Per Sports Info Solutions, the Alabama product totaled a 24% true pressure rate - second best among his edge rusher classmates in 2023. Turner tested off-the-charts at the NFL Combine posting 92nd percentile or better marks in the broad jump, vertical jump, and 40-yard dash with an 88th percentile wingspan at 247 pounds.

No. 18 - Cincinnati Bengals - Amarius Mims (OT - Georgia)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 23 Overall | OT6
  • Thor's Player Comp: Phil Loadholt

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Amarius Mims was Georgia's starting RT the last two seasons, although he missed time with injuries in 2023. But in the 7 games he did play - he allowed just one pressure. The guy is an absolute mammoth, measuring 6-foot-8 at 340 pounds with 36 1/8-inch arms (97th percentile). I've been too low on Mims in past mock drafts, with the Steelers, Bengals and Raiders all "IN" on the former Bulldog tackle prospect. Note that he does come with inexperience, so he might be the best fit for a team that already has two starting tackles in place, with Mims their plan for the future.

No. 19 - Los Angeles Rams - Jared Verse (EDGE - Florida State)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 14 Overall | EDGE2
  • Thor's Player Comp: Kayvon Thibodeaux

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Jared Verse posted the 4th-most pressures in the nation on true pass sets in 2023, with 11 sacks. Per Sports Info Solutions, the FSU edge rusher also posted the third-highest pressure rate over expectation (+11.4%). Came up huge versus Louisville with 10 total pressures and two sacks in his last game as a Seminole.

No. 20 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Troy Fautanu (OT - Washington)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 15 Overall | OT3
  • Thor's Player Comp: Rashawn Slater

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Troy Fautanu played LT at Washington but could likely kick inside to guard with his size at 6-foot-4 and 317 pounds. Finished the 2023 season as PFF's 5th-highest graded pass-blocker while logging over 1,200 pass-blocking snaps the past two seasons. Over that span, just two sacks were allowed from his blocking. His stock is steadily on the rise after the NFL Scouting Combine, given that Fautanu posted an impressive 5.01 40-yard dash (90th percentile), 1.71 10-yard split (86th percentile), 32.5" vertical (91st percentile) and 113" broad jump (92nd percentile).

No. 21 - Miami Dolphins - Chop Robinson (EDGE - Penn State)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 27 Overall | EDGE5
  • Thor's Player Comp: Boye Mafe

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Chop Robinson finished as PFF's second-highest graded pass rusher in 2023 (92.3). The 6-foot 254-pounder edge rusher's got all the intangibles from twitch to explosiveness that will have NFL draft rooms salivating, especially after he blew the doors off the testing at the NFL Scouting Combine.

He ran a 4.48-second 40 (98th percentile), leaped a 34.5-inch vertical (66th percentile) and jumped 128" broad jump (95th percentile). But he was not done. His 10-yard split at 1.54 seconds (98th percentile) was the fastest for any edge rusher over 250 pounds per the 33rd Team.

No. 22 - Philadelphia Eagles - Quinyon Mitchell (CB - Toledo)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 11 Overall | CB1
  • Thor's Player Comp: Johnathan Joseph

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Quinyon Mitchell from Toledo ran a 4.33 40-yard dash (second-fastest among all CBs) with a 38" vertical (75th percentile) and 122" broad jump (49th percentile) at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine. He has finished as PFF's highest-graded cornerback in back-to-back seasons.

No. 23 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Brian Thomas Jr. (WR - LSU)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 26 Overall | WR5
  • Thor's Player Comp: Christian Watson

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Brian Thomas Jr. posted modest numbers in his first two seasons until he exploded onto the scene this past year with a 33% dominator rating at 21 years old.

Standing tall at 6'4" and weighing 205 lbs, Thomas Jr. combines size and speed, evident in his 4.47-second 40-yard dash, to be a formidable boundary X-receiver. Over 38 games in college, he showcased his ability to be a game-changer, culminating in a junior year where he exploded onto the scene with 68 receptions for 1,177 yards and FBS leading 17 touchdowns, averaging an impressive 17.3 yards per catch. The obvious concern are that he's never been the focal point of his team's passing game, which won't get easier at the next level. That's despite a high production he has earned as he boasts the 6th-highest college dominator rating in the class at 24%. And he's competed for targets with another elite WR, Malik Nabers while playing at LSU.

No. 24 - Detroit Lions - Terrion Arnold (CB - Alabama)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 16 Overall | CB2
  • Thor's Player Comp: Jaylon Johnson

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Terrion Arnold was named All-American in 2023, alongside teammate Kool-Aid McKinstry. Arnold finished the 2023 season as PFF's 4th-highest graded CB in the class, with the No. 1 grade as a run defender (90.6). Arnold also finished 3rd in the nation in pass breakups (13) and interceptions (5).

No. 25 - Green Bay Packers - Jordan Morgan (OG - Arizona)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 29 Overall | OG1
  • Thor's Player Comp: La'el Collins

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Jordan Morgan was a 3-year starter at Arizona State with 2,400 snaps under his belt as a left tackle.

No. 26 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Graham Barton (OC - Duke)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 20 Overall | OC1
  • Thor's Player Comp: Cody Whitehair

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Duke's Graham Barton has spent the last three seasons at left tackle for the Blue Devils, but he could also kick inside for the 49ers if he is needed on the offensive interior. Per SIS, Barton finished the 2023 season with the highest positive run-behind block percentage among the OG class.

No. 27 - Arizona Cardinals - Darius Robinson (EDGE - Missouri)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 25 Overall | EDGE4
  • Thor's Player Comp: Arik Armstead

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

DT/DE Darius Robinson went off at Missouri's Pro Day. Mel Kiper Jr. cited that NFL teams were "wowed" by Robinson in the positional drills. He's got a freaky build for a defensive disruptor that projects more an as interior defender than a pure edge rusher. Robinson first turned heads at the Senior Bowl in Mobile Alabama, so his draft stock was already high. He's built like a strongman at 6-foot-5 and 285 pounds with chops as both as a pass-rusher and run defender. He totaled 9 sacks and 42 pressures in just 12 games played in his final year at Missouri. He also posted a top-10 PFF run defense grade and the No. 1 true pressure rate (15%) among the 2024 DT class.

No. 28 - Kansas City Chiefs - Xavier Worthy (WR - Texas)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 33 Overall | WR7
  • Thor's Player Comp: DeSean Jackson

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Xavier Worthy, from the University of Texas, has swiftly become a notable figure in college football due to his remarkable speed and playmaking ability. Standing at an underwhelming 6 feet 1 inch and weighing 172 pounds, Worthy has utilized his athleticism to establish himself as a versatile threat on the field. His notable achievements include a freshman year with 62 receptions for 981 yards and 12 touchdowns, emphasizing his ability to be a game-changer from the get-go. He tied a bow on his Longhorns career with over 1,000 yards and 5 TDs his junior, to capture the second-highest career dominator rating (30%) in the class with the youngest breakout age at 18 years old.

No. 29 - Dallas Cowboys - Tyler Guyton (OT - Oklahoma)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 35 Overall | OT7
  • Thor's Player Comp: Kwame Harris

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

The Oklahoma product posted the second-lowest blown block percentage in the OT class in 2023 while operating at RT.

No. 30 - Baltimore Ravens - Nate Wiggins (CB - Clemson)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 28 Overall | CB4
  • Thor's Player Comp: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

The 6-foot-2 and 173-pound CB (2nd percentile) allowed a 44.4 passer rating in coverage in 2023. He came in slightly underweight at the combine but delivered in the 40-yard dash with a 4.28 (98th percentile) before exiting with an injury. He's much better as a zone corner than in man-to-man given his size. Per Sports Info Solutions, Wiggins ranked second in fewest yards allowed per snap in zone coverage (0.1). That mark was 1.2 (29th) against man coverage.

No. 31 - San Francisco 49ers - Ricky Pearsall (WR - Florida)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 32 Overall | WR6
  • Thor's Player Comp: Adam Thielen

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Ricky Pearsall broke out at Arizona State in his third season with a 28% dominator rating in 2021, tallying 580 yards and 4 TDs. Jayden Daniels was his starting QB after a 2020 season that was limited to four games due to the pandemic.

After transferring to the SEC, the 6-foot-1 and 189-pound WR continued to succeed over the next two years at Florida, with dominator ratings of 25% from 2022-2023, finishing with 963 receiving yards and 4 TDs in his final season as a Gator.

In 2022, he was Anthony Richardson's No. 1 WR and out-produced future NFL draft pick, Justin Shorter. He averaged nearly 20 yards per catch as the team's slot WR. On the FantasyPros Football Podcast, our very own Thor Nystrom sat down with Pearsall to talk further about his route-running prowess and "ludicrous" hands. He's an older prospect, considering he will be 24 years old this season. And the other concern is how he can separate himself from his future NFL teammates when it comes to his target competition. His target share over expectation (0.9%) ranked 36th in the class.

But he turned heads at the NFL Scouting Combine with string metrics across the board. 4.41 40-yard dash, 42″ vertical jump, 129″ broad jump, 4.05 20-yard shuttle (89th percentile) and 6.64 3-cone drill (93rd percentile).

To me, Pearsall's experience as a fifth-year senior and refined game makes him a high-floor player that can get hit the get-go from Day 1, but he may not have any more ceiling to unlock unless he lands with a truly elite NFL passer.

No. 32 - Carolina Panthers - Xavier Legette (WR - South Carolina)

  • Thor's Rankings (Overall/Position): No. 48 Overall | WR11
  • Thor's Player Comp: David Boston

Erickson's NFL Draft Outlook

Xavier Legette, the impactful wide receiver from South Carolina, emerged as a notable talent in college football with his commendable performances, particularly highlighted in his SUPER senior year. Standing at 6'3″ and weighing 227 lbs, Legette's physical stature is complemented by his athletic prowess, offering the ideal blend of size and speed required for an outside receiver, making him a formidable presence on the field.

One of Legette's most notable qualities is his strong hands - he doesn't use his body to catch the ball - and ability to secure catches in traffic, showcasing his reliability as a target.

He broke out in his final and fifth year with the Gamecocks, hanging a 35% dominator rating. He posted 1,255 yards and seven touchdowns on 71 receptions.

Entering the league at 23 years old as a one-year wonder raises red flags about Legette's appeal at the next level. The size-speed specimen is enticing, but the lack of consistent production cannot be overlooked.

Easy comps for someone with this size and speed are receivers like D.K. Metcalf, who can often be more situationally dependent as a more "raw" prospect with traits that cannot be taught.

Legette's combination of size, catching ability, and consistent playmaking make him an intriguing prospect for the 2024 NFL Draft. He will likely be extremely landing spot dependent as an obvious boom-or-bust WR.

Thor's Top 500 Rookie Rankings & Player Comps

Thor's 2024 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings & Player Notes

Erickson's Full Top-100 Big Board & Draft Notes

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