This is what we’ve been waiting for, fantasy football enthusiasts. The NFL Draft is under way, and we finally get to see where the rookie prospects are going to launch their professional careers. And NFL Draft landing spots allow us to start to zero in on fantasy football and dynasty rookie draft pick values. Here, we break down QB Bo Nix and his fit with the Denver Broncos.
Throughout the draft, we’ll take a closer look at fantasy-relevant prospects, giving you an overview of their strengths and weaknesses, and assessing their fantasy value in both redraft and dynasty formats.
Let’s dig in.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
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- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Outlook
Fitz’s Fantasy Football Outlook
The Denver Broncos have selected Bo Nix with the 12th pick of the NFL Draft and hope the University of Oregon product can help solve their QB woes.
No quarterback in this draft has taken more college snaps than Bo Nix, and perhaps all that playing time will help Nix make a quick transition from the collegiate ranks to the NFL.
Nix started 61 games over five college seasons — three at Auburn, where his dad had played quarterback in the ’90s, and two at Oregon. For a recent example of a battle-tested QB who overachieved early in his NFL career, consider the case of Brock Purdy, who made 46 starts at Iowa State and has become a successful starter for the 49ers despite being the last pick of the 2021 draft.
After failing to live up to expectations at Auburn, Nix thrived after transferring to Oregon, aided by a QB-friendly offense and a strong supporting cast. At Auburn, Nix completed 59.4% of his passes, averaged 6.9 yards per attempt and had a 39-16 touchdown-to-interception ratio. At Oregon, Nix completed 74.9% of his passes, averaged 9.2 yards per attempt and had a 74-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The 24-year-old Nix isn’t especially big (6-2, 214 pounds) and doesn’t have a bazooka arm, but he has adequate arm strength and good mobility, and he gets high marks for turnover avoidance. Nix seems to know his limitations and might be sneaky-good is he lands in the right system — much like Purdy. Nix should add some fantasy value with his legs. He had 38 touchdown runs during his college career, with 14 of them coming in his first season at Oregon.
The big question is whether Nix can adapt to a pro-style offense where he won’t be able to pad his production with screen passes and other quick, easy throws. (Nix threw 418 screen passes over his college career.)
Denver isn’t a bad landing spot for Nix. He’ll be coached by Sean Payton, who had a great run with Drew Brees in New Orleans. Brees didn’t have a cannon for an arm, and neither does Nix. Perhaps Payton can craft the same sort of effective ball-control passing attack for Nix that he designed for Brees in the Big Easy.
The Broncos graded out fifth in the league in pass blocking last year, per PFF, so Nix should be well-protected. Courtland Sutton is an established wide receiver, and second-year WR Marvin Mims has promise.
For dynasty, I have Nix ranked QB5 among rookies, behind Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. I prefer Penix as a QB prospect, but I had to move Penix behind Nix after Penix landed in Atlanta, where he’s likely to be a backup for a year or two. I have Nix ranked 23rd overall in dynasty. He’s likely to go at the tail end of the first round in superflex rookie drafts, and in the late second round or early third round in 1QB rookie drafts.
For redraft, Nix is a high-end QB3 who probably won’t be selected this year in most 1QB redraft leagues.
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Thor’s NFL Draft Profile & Player Comp
Bo Nix (Oregon)
6021/214 | RAS: N/A
Player comparison: Matt Corral
Bo Nix is a former five-star dual-threat quarterback with five years of starting experience. He enters the NFL off a statistically dominant season (45/3 TD/INT). Nix’s accuracy numbers surged from around 60% in his first three seasons at Auburn to around 75% in his last two years at Oregon.
Nix has improved as a passer, but he was also flattered by the gimmicky offense he played in and the fleet of playmakers that surrounded him. Last year, only three FBS quarterbacks had an average release time quicker than Nix. Oftentimes, Nix was throwing to his first read immediately after the snap. His aDOT, by extension, ranked No. 93 in the FBS.
Oregon’s offense spread the field and asked Nix to identify his target pre-snap based on the defensive alignment. After the snap, Nix would often immediately shuttle the ball to that first read.
Go back to Nix’s true freshman year at Auburn. In an attempt to protect the inexperienced Nix that season, Auburn called 103 screen passes. Incredibly, as a fifth-year senior, Nix attempted even more – 106 screen passes.
Oregon’s scheme not only juiced his accuracy numbers but also kept the ball out of harm’s way while inoculating Nix from pressure. All three of these things were issues at Auburn, and all were addressed not necessarily through Nix’s game taking leaps forward, but by the offensive scheme.
Nix attempted more screen passes in four of his five individual collegiate seasons than McCarthy did in his entire career combined! In sum, Nix attempted 418 career screen passes to McCarthy’s 74.
Nix has average arm strength. While his repeatable upper-body throwing motion allows him to generate decent intermediate velocity with spin, his downfield attempts have always lacked consistent touch and placement. That’s because he needs to throw the kitchen sink to get the ball down there.
When not stretched beyond his limits, his upper-body mechanics are good. However, his legs and feet can get a mind of their own. When he’s errant, it’s often because his lower body isn’t married to his upper half.
Nix is a decent athlete who will steal yards outside the pocket when you let him. At the NFL level, Nix’s legs will chip in a little value alongside his short-and-intermediate accuracy. Unfortunately, you can’t construct an NFL offense out of YAC yardage on the perimeter like Oregon did, which means Nix is going to have to learn to stand in the pocket, survey his options longer and pick and choose his spots to attack downfield.
Already 24, I’m dubious of his odds of becoming something in the NFL that we’ve never seen him be. I believe he will become one of those players who is either a high-level backup or a very low-level starter, depending on the year. His days of being a standout quarterback are likely over.
Check out more NFL Draft profiles and player comps from Thor in our 2024 NFL Draft Guide
Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings
Our analysts provide their latest rookie draft rankings below. And also check out our expert consensus dynasty rookie draft rankings!
More Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- DBro’s Top 50 Rankings & Player Notes
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