Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice: Johnny Wilson (2024 Fantasy Football)

This is what we’ve been waiting for, fantasy football enthusiasts. The NFL Draft is under way, and we finally get to see where the rookie prospects are going to launch their professional careers. And NFL Draft landing spots allow us to start to zero in on fantasy football and dynasty rookie draft pick values.

Throughout the draft, we’ll take a closer look at fantasy-relevant prospects, giving you an overview of their strengths and weaknesses, and assessing their fantasy value in both redraft and dynasty formats.

Let’s dig in.

Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Outlook

Fitz’s Fantasy Football Outlook

The Philadelphia Eagles have selected Johnny Wilson of Florida State with the 185th overall pick of the NFL Draft.

Wilson is the biggest wide receiver in this draft class, measuring 6-6, 231 pounds. He’s a massive target with a huge catch radius. Wilson isn’t slow either. He clocked a 4.52 at the combine, which at his weight gives him a 98th percentile speed score.

The 23-year-old Wilson was an effective downfield target at Florida State, with an average depth of target of 14.4 yards during his college career. He averaged 2.52 yards per route run during his time with the Seminoles, so he was an efficient performer. Wilson is also a strong blocker, which should help keep him on the field.

Wilson has had issues with drops, and he hasn’t always been as effective in contested-catch situations as his size would suggest. And while Wilson has good timed speed, he’s not going to blow past NFL defensive backs very often.

Philadelphia doesn’t appear to be a great landing spot for Wilson. The Eagles have a terrific pair of wide receivers with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and the team recently gave huge contract extensions to both. Philadelphia also added DeVante Parker and Parris Campbell in the offseason for depth.

But Wilson is a fascinating developmental prospect, and he might have one potential shortcut to fantasy-relevance.

The possibility that Wilson could be moved to tight end at some point in his career is intriguing. It’s not a move Wilson is eager to make, as he told media members at the combine. But if he eventually consented to a position change, his fantasy value could soar because of the lower pass-catching standards at the position. A 700-yard wide receiver isn’t particularly valuable, but a 700-yard tight end has considerable value.

In dynasty, I have Wilson ranked WR19 among rookies and WR75 overall. He’s likely to come off the board in the early-to-mid third round of 1QB rookie drafts, and in the late third round or early fourth round of superflex rookie drafts.

Wilson’s predraft FantasyPros Expert Consensus ranking was WR125 in half-point PPR formats, and he had a predraft Underdog best-ball ADP of WR98. I have Wilson ranked WR104 for redraft.

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Thor’s NFL Draft Profile & Player Comp

Johnny Wilson | Florida State
6063/231 | RAS: 9.88
Comp: Hakeem Butler

Absolutely enormous target. Wilson is taller and heavier than Mike Evans, Allen Lazard and Equanimeous St. Brown. Wilson is one of the class’ best blockers – on reach and width alone, he’s exceedingly difficult to breach. Over the last two years, Wilson played nearly 90% of his snaps on the boundary. This is clearly Wilson’s plan for the NFL – despite reported interest from NFL teams to use him as a big-slot WR/TE hybrid, Wilson only took snaps as a boundary WR at the Senior Bowl. I believe this was a mistake.

Wilson’s intimidating size can be used against him on the boundary when, for instance, press corners get under his pads and jar him toward the boundary, siphoning his available options. It also very much plays against him along the route path when he’s trying to create space, as those long legs labor to quickly change directions.

However, and it must be said — Wilson has skills you don’t typically see in players this big. Wilson has strong north-south athleticism for a big man – you don’t have to squint to envision him being a nightmare down the seam if he ever does consent to slot work. And when you play him off, you leave yourself susceptible to Wilson screeching on the breaks and coming back to the ball, something he’s surprisingly good at for a tall oak.

Wilson was a productive collegiate receiver (2.52 YPRR) with obvious utility down the field, something his elevated yearly aDOT figures spoke to (14.4 career). But he continues to have issues with drops – his 12.8% career drop rate is a huge red flag. I’m a bit spooked by the profile, especially with how similar it is to one of my biggest misses ever in my time doing NFL Draft work. At Iowa State, Hakeem Butler had a career 12.7% drop rate on 14.5 aDOT and 2.59 YPRR. I believe Wilson will have to move inside to have a chance to become an NFL difference-maker. The sooner, the better.

Check out more NFL Draft profiles and player comps from Thor in our 2024 NFL Draft Guide