Welcome to Sleeper Picks. Sleeper’s newest offering promised plenty of entertainment and action, and they delivered. We will break down our top three picks for tonight’s NBA action. Sleeper is quickly becoming one of the most popular season-long fantasy platforms, and they are expanding into other areas based on demand. Each week in this space, we’ll talk about some strategy for the new platform while providing our favorite NBA more/less picks.
NBA Sleeper Picks Player Predictions (5/7)
Jayson Tatum (F – BOS): 19.5 (alt line)
It’s another tough slate as far as More’s are concerned, so we will be digging back into the alt line well. Tatum has scored 20 or more points in four of his five playoff games but managed just 16 in Game 5. Tatum can be an electric scorer, but his inconsistency in the playoffs is noted. He should be back well over 20 tonight, but the 26.5 this total is actually listed at is another matter. Tatum has scored more than 26 points just once so far in the postseason and scored 25, 27, and 26 points against the Cavs in the regular season. Since I know most are averse to Less plays, we will sacrifice a significant portion of the multiplier and go for the More on 19.5. Tap the More on Tatum for Game 1.
Pick: More
Evan Mobley (F/C – CLE): 9.5 points (alt line)
Evan Mobley, even at this alt line, is still lower probability than one would like given Mobley’s frustrating passiveness at times, but matched up against a Celtics team without Kristaps Porzingis, the young big should be fed early to get him going. If Jarrett Allen misses the game, then establishing Mobley will become even more crucial as it will help free up the hobbled Donovan Mitchell to do his work. Mobley scored 10 or more points in five of his six playoff games thus far but has scored 11 or fewer in two straight and in three of six overall. The multiplier here is solid enough (1.26x) that you will still get some pairing value, so punch this into your ticket where needed.
Pick: More
Jarrett Allen (C – CLE): 9.5 points (alt line)
Allen should be a force in this one if he is active for Game 1. Porzingis will be out tonight, which means the Cavs can feast on the Celtics undersized frontcourt. Allen has scored 15 or more in each of his playoff games, and since Sleeper Picks kept this number under 15, we still get a solid multiplier at 9.5 points. This is not a total without risk as the Cavaliers could look to ease him back and limit Allen’s minutes, but it is painfully obvious that Donovan Mitchell needs his help, so if he is active, expect him to get his volume even if the minutes are truncated. Jab the More on Jarrett for Game 1 against the Celtics.
Pick: More
Writers note: The lines are constantly changing on Sleeper (and sometimes expiring), so there is a high probability that one or all of the numbers may no longer be the same when you open your app. There are excellent values when they are first posted, with the only catch being that they are not all released at the same time. Vigilance could provide a solid return on investment this season, literally.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.