Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: 1B Sleepers & Busts (2025)

Joe Pisapia and Chris Welsh highlight the top infielders primed to shine in 2025. We break down the sleepers, busts and must-haves you should target for your lineups. Whether you’re building for dynasty leagues or prepping for your next draft, this is your one-stop shop for prospect intel. Here is our fantasy baseball draft strategy for infielders.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy

???? First Base Overview

• Elite Tier: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Pete Alonso
• Mid-Tier Power Hitters: Josh Naylor, Christian Walker, Cody Bellinger, Spencer Steer, Triston Casas
• Strategy:
  • Prefer hitting first base early rather than waiting too long.
  • Corner Infield Spot: Prefer filling with a first baseman over third base due to depth concerns.
  • The third tier (Naylor, Walker, Casas, etc.) offers great value without paying for the elite tier.

???? First Base Sleepers

1️⃣ Alec Burleson (STL)

• Why Target Him?
  • Versatile & multi-position eligible.
  • 2024 Stats: 21 HR, 70 R, 70 RBI, 9 SB, .267 AVG.
  • Cardinals have not signed any free agents, so he will have a bigger role.
  • Projected to bat No. 2 in the lineup → great for runs scored.

2️⃣ Michael Toglia (COL)

• Why Target Him?
  • Elite Power Upside (40 HR potential).
  • 50% hard-hit rate & 17% barrel rate (monster metrics).
  • Plays in Coors Field, but needs to cut down 32% strikeout rate.
  • If he improves contact, he could hit 35+ homers and become a late-round steal.

???? First Base Busts

1️⃣ Ryan Mountcastle (BAL)

• Why Avoid Him?
  • Declining home runs for 3 straight seasons.
  • Risk of losing playing time due to Baltimore’s stacked prospect pipeline.
  • Might get traded or become part of a rotation at 1B/DH.

2️⃣ Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN)

• Why Avoid Him?
  • Swing issues + high strikeout rate.
  • Reds’ roster is crowded (adding Austin Hays, possibly Luis Robert).
  • Might not have an everyday role if he doesn’t fix plate discipline.

???? First Base Must-Haves

1️⃣ Triston Casas (BOS)

• Why Draft Him?
  • Projected to bat 3rd behind Rafael Devers & Jarren Duran.
  • Elite power projection: 29-30 HR.
  • Great alternative if you miss out on Naylor/Walker.

2️⃣ Christian Walker (HOU)

• Why Draft Him?
  • Moved to Houston (better hitting environment).
  • Already a 100-RBI player in Arizona, now gets short porch boost in Houston.
  • Projected 270+ AVG & 30+ HR with a strong Astros lineup.