10 Must-Draft Pitchers (2025 Fantasy Baseball)

10 Must-Draft Pitchers (2025 Fantasy Baseball)

Analysis

• Value Beyond the Obvious:
  The host deliberately avoids the “top 10” elite aces in favor of pitchers who could outperform their average draft position (ADP). The idea is to secure high-upside workhorses and breakout candidates who might be undervalued by the broader fantasy community.

• Statistical Emphasis:
  Each recommendation is supported by key metrics from the previous season, including ERA, WHIP, strikeout-to-walk ratios, and innings pitched. For instance, pitchers like Bowen Francis and Justin Steele are noted for their efficient ratios and quality start streaks, suggesting that they could see a boost with better run support or full-season workloads.

• Injury Recovery and Role Confidence:
  Several of the recommendations (such as Sandy Alcantara and Shane McClanahan) are pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery. The podcast highlights that these players are now in clear roles—often as opening-day starters—which bolsters confidence in their ability to bounce back and produce fantasy-relevant innings.

• Team and Context Considerations:
  The analysis goes beyond individual performance. For example, improvements in team offense (like the Toronto Blue Jays’ expected bounce-back or the Dodgers’ overall strength) add extra value to these pitchers. There’s also mention of potential mid-season trades (with players like Sandy Alcantara) that could further enhance their fantasy profiles.

• Risk/Reward Perspective:
  While some choices come with inherent risk (such as Hunter Brown’s rocky start earlier in the season), the expectation is that if these pitchers can replicate or improve upon their latter-season trends, they offer tremendous value. The picks are positioned as must-haves to provide depth and upside in a fantasy rotation without necessarily paying top-dollar in the draft.

Top-10 Pitching Picks for 2025

1. Bowden Francis (Toronto Blue Jays)

   • Key Points: Moved into the rotation with his new splitter; posted a 1.80 ERA and 0.60 WHIP over 65 innings with strong strikeout-to-walk numbers.
   • Fantasy Outlook: Expected to benefit from improved run support as the Blue Jays look to bounce back offensively, making him an attractive back-end starter option.

2. Sean Manaea (New York Mets)

   • Key Points: A change in arm angle helped him become one of the best left-handed starters in the NL last season. He logged 32 starts with 184 strikeouts and a solid strikeout-to-walk ratio, despite a 3.47 ERA.
   • Fantasy Outlook: Although there may be slight regression in ERA numbers, his ability to clock 30+ starts makes him a very appealing volume-based asset.

3. Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins)

   • Key Points: Recently returned from Tommy John surgery and has been named the Marlins’ opening-day starter. Once known as a dominant workhorse, his recovery and role reinforce his value.
   • Fantasy Outlook: Offered at a discount due to his injury history, but with confidence in his recovery, he’s seen as a high-upside pick who could also garner trade value.

4. Seth Lugo (Kansas City Royals)

   • Key Points: A breakout candidate from last season who exceeded expectations by pitching 206 innings over 33 starts with a 3.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.
   • Fantasy Outlook: Even with an anticipated slight uptick in ERA, his consistency and high-innings potential make him a reliable rotation anchor.

5. Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays)

   • Key Points: Now fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, McClanahan is primed to reclaim his form. He has a career ERA of 3.02 and has been trusted with the opening-day nod.
   • Fantasy Outlook: Expected to pitch around 170 innings, his proven track record combined with a healthy status positions him as a potential fantasy ace.

6. Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs)

   • Key Points: Despite a late start to the season, Steele’s 20 quality starts in 134 innings, along with a 3.07 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, underscore his value.
   • Fantasy Outlook: A consistent and reliable pick who has been a value gem for the past couple of seasons, making him a smart mid-round investment.

7. Hunter Brown (Houston Astros)

   • Key Points: Brown’s season started poorly but he corrected course with a 2.28 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his final 12 starts.
   • Fantasy Outlook: If he can replicate his late-season form over a full healthy season, he could emerge as a significant upside play in the Astros’ rotation.

8. Grayson Rodriguez (Baltimore Orioles)

   • Key Points: Even though an injury curtailed his 2024 campaign, over 20 starts he showed tremendous promise with a 1.24 WHIP.
   • Fantasy Outlook: With expectations to assume the role of the Orioles’ ace, Rodriguez has both short-term breakout potential and long-term value at a very appealing draft price.

9. Pablo Lopez (Minnesota Twins)

   • Key Points: Despite a 4.08 ERA last season, deeper metrics indicate his performance should have been better. His underlying numbers suggest a turnaround is imminent.
   • Fantasy Outlook: The Twins’ improved run support and overall contention make Lopez a strong candidate to outperform his past numbers and provide excellent strikeout value.

10. Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers)

    • Key Points: Although he had a slow start with a 6.31 ERA, Snell’s performance improved markedly in his final 12 starts (1.45 ERA).
    • Fantasy Outlook: Playing for an elite Dodgers team with an outstanding bullpen and offense, Snell is viewed as the top must-have pitcher who could even be a late-round steal with ace potential.

Must-Draft Pitchers Timestamps:

• Introduction – 0:00:00
• Bowden Francis – 0:00:35
• Sean Manaea – 0:01:09
• Sandy Alcantara – 0:01:47
• Seth Lugo – 0:02:40
• Shane McClanahan – 0:03:41
• Justin Steele – 0:05:23
• Hunter Brown – 0:06:08
• Grayson Rodriguez – 0:06:55
• Pablo Lopez – 0:07:54
• Blake Snell – 0:08:44
• Closing – 0:00:54

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