Every NFL Draft cycle, the hype and hope build for players. While a large contingent will pay off for Fantasy GMs in dynasty fantasy football, there’s also a yearly swath of players that will come crashing back to earth. Those players that bust and leave Dynasty GMs regretting their rookie draft decisions. Here are my candidates from this year’s rookie class that could massively disappoint in fantasy football.
Every NFL Draft cycle, the hype and hope build for players. While a large contingent will pay off for Fantasy GMs in dynasty fantasy football, there’s also a yearly swath of players that will come crashing back to earth. Those players that bust and leave Dynasty GMs regretting their rookie draft decisions. Here are my candidates from this year’s rookie class that could massively disappoint in fantasy football.
Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice
Jalen Milroe (QB – Alabama)
Milroe has plenty of arm strength to make every necessary throw. The problem isn’t velocity for Milroe; it’s ball placement. His accuracy is erratic at every level. He has some nice throws on film while on the move, but there are also plenty of head-scratchers. Milroe also throws a flat ball to the second level. It’s rare to see him lace a layered throw to the second level of a defense. Most throws are delivered on a line. He’ll have to develop this part of his game to consistently have success against zone defenses in the NFL. Milroe is a “see it, throw it” quarterback. He isn’t an anticipatory thrower of the football. I anticipate him having issues with receivers being “NFL open” at the next level unless he operates in a scheme with plenty of designed looks and easy reads. His internal clock is a second slow. He doesn’t get through his progressions quickly and often gets hung up on his first read. Milroe’s field vision is subpar. He misses too many receivers breaking open, especially across the middle of the field. This is also true in a scramble drill, though, as Milroe hyper-focuses on one receiving option or drops his eyes immediately. Milroe will exhibit quiet feet in the pocket at times and deliver some accurate passes in the face of pressure, but those reps are dwarfed by the times that he bails clean pockets. Milroe needs to keep his eyes downfield more. Many times, at the first sniff of pressure, he immediately flips the switch to runner and forgoes his receiving options. He attempts to answer too many problems that defenses present for him with his legs. Milroe has 4.5 speed as a straight line/linear runner. He can make subtle changes of direction, but he can get himself into trouble when attempting to string together multiple moves. He’s at his best when getting downhill and turning on the jets, as he isn’t a quick twitch rusher. He’s also not the most physical ball carrier. Last year, among 80 qualifying quarterbacks, Milroe ranked 33rd in yards after contact per attempt and 23rd in elusive rating (per PFF).
Luther Burden (WR – Missouri)
Burden is a quick-twitch underneath slot weapon for offenses. Over the last two seasons, he ran 81.7-85.3% of his routes from the slot. Burden is a dynamic and fun player to watch with the ball in his hands. He can create YAC and yards for himself without needing perfectly blocked screenplays. Burden’s usage at Missouri was somewhat gimmicky. He was utilized in bunch formations, in motion, with handoffs, and with rub routes a ton to create easy releases for him. Yes, the aim for Missouri was to get the ball in his hands in every way possible, but that doesn’t explain away the usage profile. As a true route runner, Burden is more of a projection than a finished product. With a ton of his usage coming via schemed touches, the reps where Burden was asked to go out there, and route guys up were more limited. During his more traditional slot snaps, he was fed a bevy of ins, outs, and slot fades. You’ll occasionally see a seam shot in there for good measure. While Burden might turn out to be a strong route runner because of his electric movement skills, that is only a projection. Stating that he is a strong route runner versus the hope that he can become a good route runner is a very different conversation. Entering the NFL, most coordinators should expect to integrate him into the offense with some gadgetry. Maybe he hits the ground running as a route technician, but there’s an equally strong chance that he doesn’t, and he has to mature in this area with on-the-job training in the NFL. Burden plays larger than his size would suggest at the catch point. He has that “my ball mentality” and that dawg in him. Burden has a 55.8% contested catch rate over the last two seasons. This skill should help him in the red zone and if he experiences more muddy catch points in the NFL as he matures as a route runner. Burden is an accomplished punt returner who can offer an NFL team value on special teams. In 2022, he was fifth in the SEC (32nd nationally) in punt return yards and ranked eighth in punt return average (among 66 players with at least 12 punt returns).
Dylan Sampson (RB – Tennessee)
Sampson is an upright-running speedster who wins with speed, vision, and smooth footwork. He also navigates traffic in the second level well with jump cuts. Sampson’s play strength limitations show up in pass protection and as a runner. Sampson goes down easily with first contact many times, especially if defenders are aiming at his legs or feet. He can break tackles when defenders hit him high. His raw upper body strength makes its way to the field more consistently than his lower half. Sampson can hold his own in pass pro. He engages well but can be blown off his feet or moved as his anchor isn’t great. He’s best utilized as a chip option at this juncture. Sampson is a runway back. His speed is more of the build-up variety, and he’s able to create yards on his own with speed and footwork in the second level. If he’s contacted near or behind the line of scrimmage, he’s most likely going down. He’s a serviceable pass catcher. Sampson had only three drops in his collegiate career. He was utilized as a check-down option. His speed could lend itself to wheel routes and some creative usage in the NFL, but that didn’t come to fruition in college.
Quinshon Judkins (RB – Ohio State)
Judkins has a compact build and can utilize his upper body strength to shed incoming tacklers. It’s not difficult for him to get loose from a lazy wrap. He has a nasty stiff arm that he’ll deploy. Judkins is a one-speed runner. He gets up to top speed quickly, but his raw speed isn’t eye-popping. He will be able to rattle off chunk plays in the NFL, but I doubt he will hit many home runs. Judkins ranked 41st or lower in breakaway rate in his final two seasons in college. With many runs, Judkins gets what is blocked, but not a ton more. He’s a linear runner who needs to rely on his offensive line to clear the way more than some other backs in this class. Judkins does keep his legs moving through contact, which helps him to fall forward and finish runs well at times. Judkins is passable as a pass protector. He has no issues sticking his nose in there and getting dirty with an incoming defender. However, Judkins will drop his eyes occasionally and lunge at incoming rushers, which he’ll have to break himself of in the NFL. Judkins is a dump-off option only in the passing game. Most of his passing game action was as a check-down option or on swing passes.
Savion Williams (WR – TCU)
A physical specimen. Easy, immediate speed from the snap. He isn’t the most twitchy player, but he has a quick first step off the line and smooth footwork when asked to gear down and drop his hips or at the top of his route stem. He has good bend on in-breaking routes. Williams was a manufactured touch king at TCU, with screens, handoffs, and Wildcat quarterback snaps. The TCU coaching staff focused on getting Williams involved in various ways every game. Williams has more than a few concentration drops on film, with at least an 11% drop rate in three of his final collegiate seasons. Overall, I’m not worried about his hands, as many of these are of the concentration variety. A better measuring stick for his mitts is his 75% contested catch rate in college. He has no issues keeping his focus with 50/50 balls in the air or passes outside of his frame. The ball placement from his quarterbacks at TCU didn’t do him any favors. He was forced to adjust to plenty of inaccurate targets. Williams is a nice red zone threat with the size to box out smaller corners. Williams should be eased into a full-time traditional wide receiver role in the NFL. He has the traits to become a needle-moving wide receiver. In the limited snaps where he faced physical coverage at the line, he exhibited good hand fighting and the play strength to fight through it in his routes and earn separation, but it was a small sample.
Mason Taylor (TE – LSU)
Taylor is a solid all-around tight end who can be a league-average every-down starter. Taylor has the functional play strength and technique to be a serviceable blocker in all phases. He gets after every snap trying to drive defenders back. He sustains his blocks well enough and can operate as an edge setter or puller if needed. Taylor isn’t a game-changing talent as a receiver, but he can be a trusted underneath option for a passing attack with some selective seam shots sprinkled in. Taylor has the speed (4.7ish) to get downtown, depending upon the play design, but that’s not something you want to ask of him regularly. He has the necessary footwork/short-area quickness to uncover quickly and offer a passing offense a solid option against zone coverage. Taylor isn’t much of a YAC threat, with only 5.4 yards after the catch per reception in his collegiate career and no more than five missed tackles in any season. However, his 1.8% drop rate in his final season shows that he can operate as a trusted weapon for a quarterback.
