In this episode, Welsh and Joe Orrico break down how modern projection systems are influencing fantasy baseball draft strategy. They review several popular systems (ATC, Steamer, BAT/BAT X, and Oopsy) and highlight 10 players that these systems “love” for the 2025 season. Throughout the discussion, the hosts share insights on how projections—especially for rate stats and playing time—have become a key part of their valuation process, even as they acknowledge the need to balance raw numbers with contextual factors such as injury history, team environment, and player development.

Key Discussion Points

1. The Role of Projections:

   • Data-Driven Decisions:
     Both hosts emphasize that while personal observation still matters, relying on projections for rate stats (ERA, WHIP, batting average, etc.) provides a more reliable, data-driven baseline.
   • System Differences:
     They note that different projection systems (ATC, Steamer, BAT/BAT X, Oopsy) have their own “personality.” For example, ATC tends to be conservative (aiming for a 50th percentile outcome), whereas systems like Oopsy are more aggressive—especially on high-profile players like Mike Trout.

2. Player-by-Player Analysis:

   • Garrett Crochet (SP – ATC):
     ATC projects him with a 3.21 ERA over 152 innings and a high K/9 rate. Both hosts agree that if Crochet can outperform his conservative innings projection, he could rank among the elite fantasy pitchers.
   • ONeil Cruz (Hitter – BAT X):
     BAT X is very optimistic on Cruz, projecting increased power numbers (e.g., 28 HRs and 23 SBs). However, concerns about his launch angle and strikeout rate prompt caution from Joe, even as projections push his value higher.
   • Chris Sale (SP – Steamer):
     Steamer is aggressive on Sale—projecting him as a 14-win pitcher with a 3.07 ERA. Yet, both hosts note that his innings projection might be overly optimistic given his injury history, suggesting a possible adjustment to a lower inning total.
   • Xavier Edwards (Hitter – ATC):
     Edwards is projected at a .281 average with 36 stolen bases and 70 runs. While his speed and contact numbers make him attractive in rate stats, his low power output raises questions about his overall counting stats.
   • Cristopher Sanchez (SP – BAT/BAT X):
     Sanchez comes across as a stabilizer in the rotation—with aggressive win and innings projections—and serves as a counterbalance to riskier, high-strikeout pitchers.
   • Luis Robert (Hitter – Steamer):
     Steamer projects monster counting stats for Robert (29 HR, 27 SB, 84 RBI) but also flags significant volatility. His recent down year, injury concerns, and questionable approach raise red flags despite the impressive numbers.
   • Mike Trout (Hitter – Oopsy):
     Oopsy projects Trout with a .267 average, 32 HR, and 120 games played—a projection that many find overly rosy, especially on the games-played front. Both hosts stress that Trout’s value is extremely “all or nothing” depending on his health and playing time.
   • Dylan Crews (Rookie Hitter – ATC):
     As a prospect, Crews is projected for a 15/30 season (15 HR, 28 SB, 69 runs, 61 RBI). His rising ADP and attractive value make him a potential bargain, though his ceiling depends on his role and consistency.
   • Bo Bichette (Hitter – Steamer):
     Bashet is coming off a down year but is projected to bounce back with a .279 average, 21 HR, and 86 runs. Despite concerns over his speed decline, his overall skill set offers excellent buyback potential.
   • Clay Holmes (SP – Oopsy):
     Oopsy gives Holmes an aggressive projection (around 3.2 ERA over 164 innings with a 23.8% strikeout rate). However, both hosts express caution—highlighting that a significant innings jump or unproven additional pitches could result in overhype.

Analysis & Strategic Takeaways

• Embrace Projections—but with Context:
  The hosts agree that projections are an indispensable tool—especially for rate stats—but they must be balanced with factors like injury history, team context, and recent performance trends. For instance, while systems might love a player like Mike Trout or Chris Sale, knowing their injury risk or historical inconsistency is crucial before overvaluing them in drafts.

• Value of Upside vs. Risk:
  Many of the players highlighted (e.g., Garrett Crochet, O’Neal Cruz, Dylan Cruz) represent high-upside options if they can outperform conservative projections. Conversely, players like Luis Robert and Mike Trout illustrate the “all-or-nothing” risk inherent in relying solely on projections.

• Projection Systems Vary:
  The discussion underscores that no single projection system is perfect. Some (like Oopsy) tend to be overly aggressive, while others (like ATC) are more conservative. Drafters should compare multiple systems to gauge where a player’s value might be over- or under-estimated by the median approach.

• Draft Strategy Implications:

  • Target Players with Favorable Rate Stats: Players like Crochet or Sanchez, who boast excellent strikeout rates or low ERAs, can provide a solid floor—especially if they can secure additional innings.
  • Monitor ADP Movements: For players like Dylan Cruz, rising ADP can signal increased market value. However, if prices jump too high relative to projected production, it may be wise to wait or pivot to alternative options.
  • Risk Management for High-Profile Names: For marquee names like Mike Trout and Chris Sale, consider their health and playing time guarantees. An aggressive projection is enticing, but not if it’s based on unrealistic assumptions (e.g., Trout playing 120 games).

Final Thoughts

Welsh and Joe Orrico’s discussion reinforces the modern fantasy baseball draft paradigm—one that increasingly leans on sophisticated projection systems. Their breakdown of 10 “loved” players illustrates how draft value can shift dramatically based on nuanced factors like innings projections, pace-of-play metrics, and recent trends. Ultimately, while projections provide a critical framework, the best fantasy managers will combine these data points with situational context and sound risk management when constructing their rosters for 2025.