NBA Playoffs DFS Lineup Picks & Advice: Thursday (Thunder vs. Nuggets)

Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. We have a single game for the showdown slate between Oklahoma City and Denver tonight. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money.

That may not be as applicable in the playoffs, with information a bit more available and fewer games each day. Still, it’s an important reminder. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer

NBA DFS Captain/MVP Plays

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG – OKC)

DraftKings: $18,600
FanDuel: $21,300

With Denver’s back against the wall in an elimination game, I have to start with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as my most rostered option across my DFS portfolio this evening. His lowest point total during the playoffs is 44, and he started this series with 65 DraftKings points.

Expect the Kentucky product to be the go-to guy with his 30% usage rate and 40 or so minutes. Gilgeous-Alexander has been a ride or die all year, not exactly a bold take, and I’m not backing off now. He’ll be highly rostered, but if you’re doing double-ups or 50-50s, he’s an easy option you can’t miss out on.

Nikola Jokic (C – DEN)

DraftKings: $20,700
FanDuel: $25,800

It would be truly shocking if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic aren’t the two highest rostered Captains/MVP plays on tonight’s slate. There’s a good chance Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander combine to make up over 40% of the slate’s rostership. You can’t argue against it much with Jokic’s ability to score over 70 points, as he did last time out, or even 80 points, as he did to open the series. That is always a likely risk.

I rank him behind Gilgeous-Alexander because he’s going to be so highly rostered that there is zero leverage. He’s a cash lock and a near-lock in deep GPP tournaments, as no one else is going to get near his pure points. If you want to go crazy and fade him, I support that because I love anarchy, but I would rather play it safe and accept Jokic in your lineups and find creativity elsewhere.

NBA DFS Core Game Targets

Cason Wallace (PG, SG – OKC)

DraftKings: $3,000
FanDuel: $1,800

If you go with the heavy hitters on tonight’s slate, you’ll have to find value and punt plays elsewhere. Cason Wallace is a top option. He should play around 20 minutes and can score over 20 points. The ancillary pieces for the Thunder are capable of making noise in any given game.

I’ll throw out Isaiah Joe in this grouping as well as a pure punt play, but these feel more like GPP darts because they are more likely to bust even if they put up mild stats, which could make them optimal.

Russell Westbrook (PG – DEN)

DraftKings: $5,400
FanDuel: $4,400

Watching a trying Russell Westbrook is fun, and his production usually follows. He’s had two of his worst games recently. When his shots fall, though, he’s capable of getting over 30 fantasy points. Westbrook will see around a 22% usage rate on the court. Even against an elite Thunder defense, he’s capable of having things go his way.

Jalen Williams (SF, PF – OKC)

DraftKings: $9,200
FanDuel: $9,600

If Oklahoma City is going to win tonight, as I expect they will, then it won’t be only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who puts up points. My bet is on Jalen. He’s the only other player tonight I project for over 40 fantasy points. If that’s the case, you’ll have to have him in your lineups.

Williams will also likely be highly rostered — around 35% — but with only so many options to go around, I expected it to be higher. Taking a stand on any Gilgeous-Alexander/Jokic options can be your path to victory over the field. I don’t mind backing Williams.

Aaron Gordon (PF, C – DEN)

DraftKings: $8,000
FanDuel: $7,400

Having Nikola Jokic as Captain/MVP and a bunch of Thunder pieces will likely be the most common type of lineup build tonight. The Thunder are favored and they are the better team. Plus Denver’s magic seems to be fading. But a way to get different is to lean more so on the Denver side for a potential Nuggets victory. If that’s the case, go with Aaron Gordon.

Gordon is a riskier play, and Jamal Murray is perfectly fine, too, but I wanted to go a bit cheaper if Jokic is leading the charge in your Captain/MVP spot. The Nuggets forward continues to defy his seasonal averages with 40 minutes a night and a significantly better player value as he’s been cashing 18 points a game throughout the playoffs. Gordon has cleared 40 fantasy points in two of his last three games, and that’s the ceiling I’m buying tonight with rostering him.