20 Players Experts Target & Avoid (2025 Fantasy Football)

When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into a few notable fantasy football players I’m higher or lower on compared to ECR. And you can check out which experts are higher or lower than our expert consensus rankings using our Fantasy Football Rankings Comparison Tools.

Fantasy Football Draft Advice

Let’s dive into players I like more or less than the expert consensus rankings.

Players to Target

Wide Receivers I Like More Than ECR

Derek Brown’s Rank	Player	ECR	Diff.
4	Brian Thomas Jr. JAC – WR	8	4
11	Davante Adams LAR – WR	17	6
12	Mike Evans TB – WR	18	6
18	George Pickens DAL – WR	34	16
19	DeVonta Smith PHI – WR	25	6

Overall, last year, Brian Thomas Jr. was a stud as the WR11 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in deep targets and 15th in red zone targets. As good as those numbers are, they still underrate his upside in 2025 if he can continue what he did down the stretch last year. In Weeks 13-18 last season, he was the WR2 in fantasy points per game. During that span, among 72 qualifying receivers, he was fourth in target share (31.6%), seventh in yards per route run (2.78), fifth in receiving yards per game (98.8), and 17th in first downs per route run (0.108, per Fantasy Points Data). Thomas Jr. posted those numbers with Mac Jones tossing him passes. What do we think he’ll do in 2025 with Liam Coen at the controls and Trevor Lawrence back? It could be a magical season for Thomas Jr.

Mike Evans has finished no lower than WR13 in fantasy points per game over the last four years, and he didn’t show any signs of slowing down last year. While he has dealt with hamstring issues in each of the last three years, he has never played less than 14 games in any season. Last year, Evans ranked 23rd in target share, fifth in yards per route run, 16th in receiving yards per game, fourth in route win rate, and second in separation (per Fantasy Points Data). Evans is primed to produce as a WR1 again in 2025.

At this point, everyone should know and love what they get from DeVonta Smith yearly. He has finished as a top 20 wide receiver in fantasy points per game in each of the last three seasons (WR15, WR20, WR14). Smith was awesome in nearly every metric last year. He was 11th in target share, 19th in yards per route run, 12th in first downs per route run, 17th in separation, and 11th in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). While he might not be the sexiest pick of your draft with top 5-10 upside at wide receiver, he’s a known commodity and a damn good one as a stalwart WR2.

Running Backs I Like More Than ECR

Derek Brown’s Rank	Player	ECR	Diff.
10	Kenneth Walker III SEA – RB	15	5
12	RJ Harvey DEN – RB	23	11
19	Tony Pollard TEN – RB	27	8
20	Kaleb Johnson PIT – RB	29	9
30	Javonte Williams DAL – RB	35	5

It will fly under the radar that Kenneth Walker III was the RB12 in fantasy points per game last season. Unfortunately, his season was cut short by injuries, but if Walker can stay healthy in 2025, he could finally put it all together with a top-five running back season. Walker proved last year that not only is he still one of the best pure rushing talents in the league, but he is also a true three-down back with passing-catching chops. Among 45 qualifying backs, Walker ranked third in first downs per route run, sixth in target per route run rate, and sixth in receiving yards per game (per Fantasy Points Data). Add all of that on top of leading the NFL in missed tackles forced per attempt and ranking tenth in yards after contact per attempt, and Walker could be a league-winner in 2025.

Tony Pollard had a strong 2024 season as the Titans’ workhorse starter. He ranked ninth in snap share, opportunity, and weighted opportunities. Pollard finished as the RB22 in fantasy points per game while ranking 18th in explosive run rate and sixth in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). The pitiful nature of the Titans’ offense last year outside of Pollard crushed his season. He was only 22nd in red zone touches and was the RB15 in expected fantasy points per game. If Cam Ward can elevate this offensive ecosystem and Pollard can retain this awesome role, he could finish as a high-end RB2 this season.

Last year, it was tough to watch Javonte Williams. The injuries have seemingly robbed him of his special tackle-breaking sauce. The Broncos kept trotting him out there weekly without a better option to take his place. Williams finished as the RB36 in fantasy points per game. He will be in the conversation, if not the favorite, to be the Cowboys’ starting back this season, with only Miles Sanders and Jaydon Blue realistically competing with him for the job. I don’t know if Williams has the juice anymore to hold off those players, but he will be given the opportunity to do so. Last year, Williams ranked outside the top 34 backs in explosive run rate, missed tackles forced per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Williams makes the most sense with Zero RB builds this season, as he could buy time for a fantasy star to emerge from your bench to take his place in your starting lineup.

Players to Avoid

Wide Receivers I Like Less Than ECR

Expert Consensus’s Rank	Player	Derek Brown’s Rank	Diff.
5	Malik Nabers NYG – WR	10	5
13	Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA – WR	20	7
14	Tyreek Hill MIA – WR	22	8
20	Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI – WR	31	11
21	DJ Moore CHI – WR	27	6

Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out in a big way in his sophomore season. He was the WR17 in fantasy points per game and really exploded down the stretch. In Weeks 9-18, he was the WR8 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in target share (25.4%), tenth in receiving yards per game (82.4), and ninth in yards per route run and first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). I was very bullish about Smith-Njigba last year, but I find myself worried about his 2025 outlook. The Seattle Seahawks are going to lean on their ground game more this season after ranking sixth in pass rate over expectation and fourth in neutral passing rate in 2024. Even if Smith-Njigba proves that he can pick up right where he left off, his raw target volume could dip this season. I’m also worried about him playing more on the perimeter this season. Last year, during that insane stretch, he ran out of the slot on 81.3% of his snaps. Last year, his separation (0.035 vs. 0.068) and route win rate (9.4% vs. 10.4%) were notably worse as a perimeter wide receiver, while also noting that his overall numbers in these metrics were surprisingly poor. Overall, among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 62nd in separation score and 88th in route win rate. Smith-Njigba could return low-end WR2 value this season, but he’s a tough player to click as a high-end WR2/ borderline WR1.

Father Time remains undefeated. Tyreek Hill could see his efficiency dip again this season another year older. Last year, with Tua Tagovailoa under center (Weeks 8-16), Hill was the WR24 in fantasy points per game while ranking 36th in yards per route run, 34th in target share, and 33rd in receiving yards per game. Overall, last year, he was 28th in separation and 48th in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). None of this screams, “Hill is a top 15-20 wide receiver this season & a must-draft player.” Hill could return WR2 value in 2025 if he can hold off Father Time and rebound from the wrist injury that plagued him last season. If Hill dips in drafts, I’ll get exposure to him, but he’s not a player I’m prioritizing in drafts.

D.J. Moore had a rough 2024 season despite still drawing a high-end target share in the Chicago passing attack and finishing 98 receptions as the WR26 in fantasy points per game. Among 85 qualifying receivers, Moore still drew a ton of volume, ranking 13th in target share (24.4%) and tenth in first-read share (31.8%), but his per-route numbers were rough. Yes, Caleb Williams was partially to blame as Moore ranked 55th in catchable target rate, which could partially explain his 1.53 yards per route run (60th), 56.8 receiving yards per game (35th), and 0.068 first downs per route run (67th). It doesn’t, however, wipe away his 76th ranking in separation and 59th standing in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Williams’ performance and the hype around Ben Johnson paying off will factor into a possible Moore bounce back, but Moore’s play must also return to previous levels for it to happen in 2025. Moore still likely serves as the team’s leading target earner this season as a steady WR3 with WR2 upside.

Running Backs I Like Less Than ECR

Expert Consensus’s Rank	Player	Derek Brown’s Rank	Diff.
9	Jonathan Taylor IND – RB	13	4
11	Kyren Williams LAR – RB	21	10
17	Chuba Hubbard CAR – RB	24	7
20	Omarion Hampton LAC – RB	25	5
22	D’Andre Swift CHI – RB	29	7

Jonathan Taylor posted another RB1 season (RB7 in fantasy points per game) while dealing with a high ankle sprain. He racked up 321 touches and 1,567 total yards with 12 scores. While I think Taylor should post another top 12 season in 2025, I do have some concerns. The quarterback play for Indy is a worry with how often they could be in the red zone this year, as well as his lack of pass-game involvement. Last year, Taylor ranked sixth in red zone touches. I don’t know if he comes close to that number this season, but I could easily be wrong. I don’t see more check-down opportunities for Taylor this season with Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson under center. It’s not like he’s demanding those looks either, with his per-route performance in 2024, anyway. Last year, among 45 qualifying backs, Taylor ranked 37th in target share (7.4%) and 43rd in yards per route run and first downs per route run. Taylor is a solid pick again this year, but I struggle to see a ceiling outcome for him in 2025.

Last year, Kyren Williams pulled off his best yesteryear Rachaad White or Leonard Fournette impression. A volume gobbling inefficient back who turned in an RB1 season (RB10). Williams ranked first in snap share, second in opportunity share, and first in red zone touches. Williams had 350 touches and 1,481 total yards. With all that said, Williams was one of the most inefficient per touch backs in the NFL. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 44th in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Williams could retain his stranglehold on the volume again in a contract year, but it’s also possible that Blake Corum or Jarquez Hunter could eat into his workload. Williams is a top 15-20 running back who could easily be an RB1 again or see his stock come crashing down.

Well, the Bears didn’t add any threat to D’Andre Swift’s workload before they selected Kyle Monangai in the seventh round of the NFL Draft. Monangai is more of a worry for Roschon Johnson and his standing as RB2 on the depth chart than Swift’s. Last year, Swift was the RB21 in fantasy points per game as he soaked up volume. He ranked tenth in snap share, seventh in opportunity share, tenth in carries, and 15th in targets among backs. Swift was inefficient every step of the way, ranking outside the top 32 running backs in explosive run rate, yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced per attempt, and yards per touch. Swift looks primed for another volume RB2 season in 2025 behind a reworked offensive line and with Ben Johnson at the helm.