20 Players Who Will Make or Break Your Draft (Fantasy Football)

When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average.

You can also see which players create the most debate among experts by checking out the standard deviation in their rankings. The higher the standard deviation, the more disagreement there is among experts as to where a player should be ranked. These players can be the ones who make or break your fantasy football drafts. Getting these picks right can lay the foundation for a fantasy football championship. Let’s dive into a few notable fantasy football players who could make or break your draft.

Fantasy Football Advice: Make or Break Draft Picks

Here are players in our ECR top 60 fantasy football draft rankings that are causing the most disagreement among experts based on where they are going in drafts.

RK	TIERS	PLAYER NAME	TEAM	POS	BEST	WORST	AVG.	STD.DEV	ECR VS. ADP
3	1	Saquon Barkley	PHI	RB2	1	13	4.2	2.4	-1
12	2	Christian McCaffrey	SF	RB5	2	30	12.4	6.2	-1
17	3	Brock Bowers	LV	TE1	10	34	18.2	4.2	0
19	3	Jonathan Taylor	IND	RB8	12	37	19.9	4.7	0
21	3	Bucky Irving	TB	RB10	10	45	22.4	6.2	-3
27	4	Kyren Williams	LAR	RB12	15	53	27.4	7.1	-2
28	4	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	WR12	18	48	30.4	6.6	3
30	4	Tyreek Hill	MIA	WR14	17	48	30.9	7.5	-1
32	4	George Kittle	SF	TE3	16	53	33.3	7.1	3
40	4	Kenneth Walker III	SEA	RB15	23	57	39	7.8	5
41	4	Alvin Kamara	NO	RB16	24	69	41.6	7.8	0
42	4	Marvin Harrison Jr.	ARI	WR19	28	68	42	6.9	-3
46	5	Omarion Hampton	LAC	RB18	24	99	48.2	11.7	-2
47	5	DK Metcalf	PIT	WR21	32	81	48.3	9.1	3
51	5	Rashee Rice	KC	WR24	27	101	52.8	18.2	-5
53	5	Joe Mixon	HOU	RB20	36	98	56.1	12.3	-6
54	5	Jameson Williams	DET	WR26	38	114	58.2	13.4	4
57	5	Xavier Worthy	KC	WR27	37	103	60.8	14.5	9
59	5	Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	WR28	34	119	62.9	17.3	5
60	5	Jaylen Waddle	MIA	WR29	41	106	63.7	13.3	15

Fantasy Football Outlook & Advice

Our analysts weigh in on how they are approaching some of these make-or-break fantasy football draft picks.

Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI)

Last year, Barkley finished the season as the RB1 in fantasy points per game, finishing with 378 touches, 2,283 total yards, and 15 total touchdowns. This season, we have to have the volume conversation and the worries about that for Barkley’s outlook for 2025. It’s a similar conversation that we had with Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs before him. Is it a concern? Yep. Is it so damning that it should Barkley outside the top 3-5 running backs in preseason rankings? No. My bigger worry is Barkley’s quietly meh tackle-breaking metrics last year. Among 46 qualifying backs, he had the fourth-best explosive run rate, but he was also only 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 35th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). The big thing that helped Barkley was Philly’s awesome offensive line. Among those 46 backs, Barkley had the highest yards before contact per attempt (3.55). Barkley was chewing up almost four yards per carry before he faced the opposition. That helped him a ton, but it will likely help him again in 2025, as Philly will once again have one of the league’s best offensive lines. Barkley remains a top 5 back in 2025 despite some of my concerns.
– Derek Brown

Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)

It’s obviously risky to draft Christian McCaffrey. He played only four games last year due to bilateral Achilles tendinitis and a PCL injury. Over his 10-year career, there have been four seasons in which McCaffrey played seven or fewer games. And now he’s 29 years old. But the potential rewards are vast. McCaffrey is two years removed from having more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns. He’s in a Kyle Shanahan offense. If McCaffrey stays healthy, he’s going to smash, which is why he still warrants consideration as a late first-round or early second-round pick.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)

Taylor posted another RB1 season (RB7 in fantasy points per game) while dealing with a high ankle sprain. He racked up 321 touches and 1,567 total yards with 12 scores. While I think Taylor should post another top 12 season in 2025, I do have some concerns. The quarterback play for Indy is a worry with how often they could be in the red zone this year, as well as his lack of pass-game involvement. Last year, Taylor ranked sixth in red zone touches. I don’t know if he comes close to that number this season, but I could easily be wrong. I don’t see more check-down opportunities for Taylor this season with Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson under center. It’s not like he’s demanding those looks either, with his per-route performance in 2024, anyway. Last year, among 45 qualifying backs, Taylor ranked 37th in target share (7.4%) and 43rd in yards per route run and first downs per route run. Taylor is a solid pick again this year, but I struggle to see a ceiling outcome for him in 2025.
– Derek Brown

Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)

It feels like Groundhog Day all over again – another offseason, another round of analysts fading Kyren Williams. But this year, the concerns are more justified, in the last year of William’s rookie contract. Despite a monster workload in 2024 (nearly 400 touches, 87% snap share, both second to only Saquon Barkley), Williams was wildly inefficient – ranking near the bottom in explosive run rate, missed tackles, and YAC per attempt (akin to Najee Harris’ numbers in 2024) with fumbles to boot. The Rams spent legit draft capital on Blake Corum in 2023 (who Sean McVay thinks is a stud) and Jarquez Hunter in 2024 (who the Rams traded up for) while publicly embracing the NFL trends of a more committee-driven backfield approach this offseason. Williams could still deliver RB1 numbers on sheer volume alone, but if that volume even slightly dips, it will be tough for him to live up to his ADP.
– Andrew Erickson

Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)

We’ll probably get some sort of rebound from Tyreek Hill after he went from a magnificent 119-1,799-13 season in 2023 to a disappointing 81-959-6 campaign in 2024. The brightest ray of hope for Tyreek is that Tua Tagovailoa averaged a career-low 5.7 intended air yards per attempt last season. In 2023 he was at 7.7 intended air yards per attempt, and in 2022 he was at 9.5 intended air yards per attempt. The departure of TE Jonnu Smith in a late-June trade could also mean some extra targets for Tyreek. But the Cheetah is 31 now, and we certainly can’t count on a full season of good health for Tua.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA)

It will fly under the radar that Walker was the RB12 in fantasy points per game last season. Unfortunately, his season was cut short by injuries, but if Walker can stay healthy in 2025, he could finally put it all together with a top-five running back season. Walker proved last year that not only is he still one of the best pure rushing talents in the league, but he is also a true three-down back with passing-catching chops. Among 45 qualifying backs, Walker ranked third in first downs per route run, sixth in target per route run rate, and sixth in receiving yards per game (per Fantasy Points Data). Add all of that on top of leading the NFL in missed tackles forced per attempt and ranking tenth in yards after contact per attempt, and Walker could be a league-winner in 2025.
– Derek Brown