3 Busts to Avoid: Wide Receivers (2025 Fantasy Football)

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Fantasy Football Draft Cheat Sheet: Busts to Avoid

Wide Receiver Busts

Zay Flowers has settled in as a consistent WR3 for fantasy purposes, and I don’t see that changing in 2025, especially with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. Over the last two seasons, Flowers has been the WR31 and WR32 in fantasy points per game. He’s outplayed expectations as he was the WR38 and WR33 in expected fantasy points per game in each season. Last year, among 85 qualifying receivers, he ranked 14th in target share (24.1%), 27th in receiving yards per game (62.3), 17th in yards per route run (2.35), 18th in first-read share (30%), and 20th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). With the addition of Hopkins and an impending bounceback season for Mark Andrews, Flowers likely won’t be leaping into WR2 territory this year and could regress into low-end WR3 territory.

Father Time remains undefeated. Tyreek Hill could see his efficiency dip again this season another year older. Last year, with Tua Tagovailoa under center (Weeks 8-16), Hill was the WR24 in fantasy points per game while ranking 36th in yards per route run, 34th in target share, and 33rd in receiving yards per game. Overall, last year, he was 28th in separation and 48th in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). None of this screams, “Hill is a top 15-20 wide receiver this season & a must-draft player.” Hill could return WR2 value in 2025 if he can hold off Father Time and rebound from the wrist injury that plagued him last season. If Hill dips in drafts, I’ll get exposure to him, but he’s not a player I’m prioritizing in drafts.

Marvin Harrison Jr. didn’t come close to living up to the hype in his rookie season. Harrison Jr. finished as the WR39 in fantasy points per game and the WR27 in expected fantasy points per game. After such a disappointing first year, we’re left wondering, entering year two, “Can Harrison live up to last year’s hype and breakout in 2025?” I’ll start by saying I’m doubtful, and I’ll likely remain below consensus on him entering the year, but there’s a pathway for it to happen. Ok, let’s get back to 2024. In Weeks 1-9, Arizona deployed Harrison Jr. primarily as a downfield receiver, with only 29.9% of his routes being horizontal breaking routes and 49.6% of them being vertical breaking routes. In that sample, he drew a 21.4% target share (32nd) with 49.4 receiving yards per game (43rd), a 28.2% first-read share (29th), 0.093 first downs per route run (36th), and 1.97 yards per route run (38th, per Fantasy Points Data). This was a horrible game plan by Arizona’s coaching staff. Last year, Harrison Jr. ranked 84th and 51st in vertical route-breaking separation and route win rate as opposed to 16th and 19th in those categories when it came to horizontal-breaking routes. The good thing for Harrison Jr. is in Weeks 10-18, his horizontal route % climbed to 41.4%, while vertical breaking routes made up 38.5% of his usage. The problem is that in Weeks 10-18, his numbers didn’t improve; instead, they actually worsened with the usage change. He had a 20.6% target share (33rd), 55 receiving yards per game (37th), a 27.1% first-read share, 0.078 first downs per route run, and 1.56 yards per route run. His late-season usage and per-route numbers with horizontal routes offer hope, but his declining efficiency with the usage change muddies the 2025 waters. Harrison is a tough player to get excited about, given his usage and efficiency are in question, and there are no concrete answers to suggest we should expect better results moving forward.

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