Put on your plumber’s pants because it’s about to get messy in our Do Not Draft List! Join Ryan Wormeli, Pat Fitzmaurice and Jake Ciely for their top eight overvalued 2025 fantasy football busts to avoid!
Is Baltimore Ravens WR Zay Flowers’ ceiling capped? Will negative touchdown regression flush away Buffalo Bills RB James Cook’s value? Plus, has recent rookie tight end success pushed Chicago Bears TE Colston Loveland up too far in ADP to target?
The Pros take dumps on their least favorite values!
8 Fantasy Football Busts
Whether it’s due to inflated ADPs, questionable usage, or looming regression, these are the fantasy football busts that could sink your team if you reach too early.
Baker Mayfield (QB, Buccaneers)
Baker Mayfield is coming off a career year—but it screams regression. He’s being drafted as the QB7, often in the 6th or 7th round, which Fitzmaurice calls a major reach.
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Red Flags: Career-high 41 TDs and 378 rushing yards (never topped 30 TDs or 200 rush yards before 2024)
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Coaching Change: Lost OC Liam Coen after already losing Dave Canales
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Better Alternatives: Wait and grab Justin Fields or Brock Purdy later
Unless Mayfield falls a few rounds, he’s not worth the premium price.
Audric Estime (RB, Broncos)
Jake Ciely called Audric Estime a player he’d “never draft,” even before Denver signed J.K. Dobbins.
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No Upside: Limited speed and burst; needs multiple injuries to climb depth chart
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Crowded Backfield: Competing with RJ Harvey and Dobbins in a Sean Payton offense
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Track Record: Underwhelming with opportunities in 2024
Estime is a touchdown-dependent grinder without breakout potential.
James Cook (RB, Bills)
James Cook’s 18-touchdown explosion last year feels unsustainable, and experts warn against chasing the outlier.
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TD Regression: Had just 3 and 6 TDs the two previous seasons
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Limited Receiving Role: Josh Allen doesn’t target RBs often; Cook’s career-high is just 38 receptions
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Backfield Competition: Ray Davis flashed in Cook’s absence and could earn more work
Add in a potential contract dispute, and Cook’s fantasy football floor looks shaky.
Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens)
Zay Flowers has talent, but fantasy football isn’t just about talent—it’s about opportunity and role.
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2024 Production: WR34 in points per game despite Lamar Jackson’s 41 passing TDs
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Crowded Offense: Now shares targets with DeAndre Hopkins, Mark Andrews, and Rashod Bateman
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Historical Trend: Ravens WRs rarely finish as consistent fantasy starters
Drafting Flowers as a top-25 WR is betting against a decade of Baltimore passing trends.
Jauan Jennings (WR, 49ers)
Jennings surprised last season, but experts are fading a 27-year-old “breakout” built on opportunity, not dominance.
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Injury-Fueled Surge: Breakout came during absences of Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk
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Regression Coming: Never averaged more than 1.38 YPRR before last season’s 2.26
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Crowded Target Tree: Competing with McCaffrey, Kittle, Aiyuk, and Pearsall
With an ADP in the 6th round, Jennings is too expensive for a likely WR3 ceiling.
Demario Douglas (WR, Patriots)
Douglas is a volume-based slot option on a low-octane offense—Ciely compared him to Wan’Dale Robinson in the worst way.
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Low Ceiling: Would need 100 catches just to flirt with 1,000 yards
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TD Concerns: Not a red-zone factor, even as WR1
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System Fit: Short-area target in a sluggish passing game
He’s draftable in deep full-PPR formats, but as a WR4 at best.
Josh Downs (WR, Colts)
Downs is popular in the fantasy community—but Fitzmaurice is steering clear.
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QB Uncertainty: Daniel Jones could win the job, which would hurt everyone
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Crowded Short Game: Rookie TE Tyler Warren may eat into slot targets
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Injury Impact: Michael Pittman should bounce back after playing through a broken back
Downs has scored just 7 TDs in 31 games and lacks elite upside at WR38 ADP.
Colston Loveland (TE, Bears)
Loveland has dynasty appeal but isn’t a reliable redraft asset in 2025.
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Depth Chart Hurdles: Still behind Cole Kmet (unless traded) and likely 4th in team targets
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Offensive Fit: Ben Johnson-style scheme rarely favors rookie TEs
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Crowded Pass Game: Competing with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze
He’s a stash for 2026, not a starter for 2025.
Fantasy Football Busts Timestamps
- Introduction – 0:00:00
- Baker Mayfield (QB – TB) – 0:00:29
- Audric Estime (RB – DEN) – 0:01:38
- James Cook (RB – BUF) – 0:02:41
- Zay Flowers (WR – BAL) – 0:03:44
- Jauan Jennings (WR – SF) – 0:05:10
- DeMario Douglas (WR – NE) – 0:06:08
- Josh Downs (WR – IND) – 0:07:08
- Colston Loveland (TE – CHI) – 0:08:17
- Potential Busts We’re Avoiding or Drafting – 0:09:19
- Outro – 0:12:15
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