Fantasy Football Draft Busts (2025)

Thankfully, the 2025 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential. Here are fantasy football draft notes on a few relevant players from the AFC North.

Fantasy Football Draft Advice

ADP via FantasyPros

Fantasy Football Bust Candidates

Mark Andrews (BAL): ADP 86.2 | TE7

Andrews had the best year of his career in 2021, finishing as the TE1, averaging 17.7 PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, the veteran had one of the worst seasons of his career last year. While he finished as the TE6, averaging 11.1 fantasy points per game, Andrews looked washed and wasn’t part of the offensive game plan early in the season. Thankfully, he was the TE5 over the final 13 weeks, averaging 13.9 fantasy points per game.

After totaling 11 receiving touchdowns in 25 games the previous two years, Andrews had 11 last season. More importantly, he bounced back because of touchdown luck and not a significant increase in targets. Andrews averaged 2.8 targets per game over the first five contests. By comparison, the veteran averaged 4.6 targets per game over the final 13 weeks. Unfortunately, Andrews became a touchdown-or-bust tight end, averaging 11.4 fewer fantasy points per game when he failed to find the end zone.

Furthermore, the veteran has declined since his career year in 2021. Andrews’ 4.1 targets per game average from last season was the lowest of his career since his rookie year. Moreover, he has become significantly more touchdown-dependent over the past few years. Unfortunately, Andrews likely won’t have the same scoring luck he did last season with DeAndre Hopkins on the roster and the Ravens wanting Isaiah Likely to have a larger role. Fantasy players should avoid drafting him anywhere near his current ADP.

Year	Tight End FPPG Finish	Receiving TDs Scored	Fantasy Production from TDs	Targets Per Game
2024	TE7 (11.1)	11	35.0%	4.1
2023	TE5 (13.5)	6	26.6%	6.1
2022	TE3 (12.7)	5	15.8%	7.5
2021	TE1 (17.7)	9	17.9%	9.1

Jonnu Smith (PIT): ADP 125.8 | TE13

Smith had a much higher ADP earlier this offseason. He was the TE7 in the ADP and a seventh-round pick a month ago. Thankfully, his draft cost has declined since landing with the Steelers. Yet, Smith is still getting drafted way too early. Last year, he was the TE4, averaging 13.1 PPR fantasy points per game. The veteran set career highs in several categories, including fantasy points per game, receptions (88), targets (111), receiving yards (884), and touchdowns (eight).

Unfortunately, history suggests that Smith wouldn’t have similar production this season, even if he were still a member of the Miami Dolphins. Players rarely have a breakout year this late in their career and maintain that level of success. The veteran will be on the wrong side of 30 when the 2025 season starts. More importantly, he has never been a consistent fantasy factor with Arthur Smith as his play caller, despite the coach pushing Pittsburgh to trade for Smith earlier this month.

Last year, the Dolphins relied on Smith’s yards after the catch ability. According to Fantasy Points Data, he ranked 10th in the NFL in designed targets (22). The veteran also ranked 13th in the league in screen pass routes run (24), with 16.2% of his targets for the season coming on screens. Furthermore, Smith averaged 6.5 targets and 13.1 fantasy points per game in 2024. By comparison, he averaged 3.7 targets and 7.7 fantasy points per game in three years with Arthur Smith as the playcaller.