Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: RB Busts (2025)

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Fantasy Football Draft Cheat Sheet

Erickson’s Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet

Running Back Busts

Saquon Barkley will be popular after arguably the greatest season we have ever seen from the position. Over 2,000 rushing yards as the only skill player to average more than 20 points per game in half-PPR. He led the NFL in touches with nearly 500…running effectively behind the league’s best OL. But as was the case with Christian McCaffrey last season…leading the NFL in touches by such a vast margin is essentially the kiss of death for running backs the following year. Only two RBs finished as RB1s the following year after leading the NFL in touches since 2013. Ezekiel Elliott is the only one over that period to finish inside the top 5.

It feels like Groundhog Day all over again – another offseason, another round of analysts fading Kyren Williams. But this year, the concerns are more justified. Despite a monster workload in 2024 (nearly 400 touches, 87% snap share, both second to only Saquon Barkley), Williams was wildly inefficient – ranking near the bottom in explosive run rate, missed tackles, and YAC per attempt (akin to Najee Harris’ numbers in 2024) with fumbles to boot. The Rams spent legit draft capital on Blake Corum in 2023 (who Sean McVay thinks is a stud) and Jarquez Hunter in 2024 (who the Rams traded up for) while publicly embracing the NFL trends of a more committee-driven backfield approach this offseason. Williams could still deliver RB1 numbers on sheer volume alone after signing a new contract, but if that volume even slightly dips to ensure his longevity, it will be tough for him to live up to his ADP.

D’Andre Swift fits the classic “dead zone RB” mold – a projected volume play with an RB2 ceiling. He finished as the RB23 in points per game last year (RB19 overall), but it was an empty workload propped up by opportunity, not efficiency. From Week 9 on, he was the RB32 in points per game. Swift ranked dead last in rushing yards over expectation per attempt on the season (-0.7). He rushed for 60-plus yards just three times in his last 10 games played. He now reunites with Bears HC Ben Johnson – the same coach who phased him out in Detroit back in 2022. Despite no clear threat to his touches, Swift’s inefficiency last season (career low in yards per carry and PFF’s 6th-lowest graded RB) makes him a low-ceiling RB2 fantasy managers should be cautious of over-drafting in 2025.

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