Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets: RB Busts (2025)

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Fantasy Football Draft Cheat Sheet

Fitz’s Running Back Busts

Joe Mixon volume-hogged his way to an RB8 finish last year. Last year, he ranked 14th in snap share, fifth in opportunity share, 17th in weighted opportunity, and sixth in red zone touches. The efficiency aspect hasn’t been there, and I doubt that it will change in 2025 with another year of touches hitting the body odometer. Last year, he ranked 22nd in explosive run rate, 38th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 29th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). The Texans added Nick Chubb and Woody Marks this offseason to help out on early downs and in the passing game. With Mixon continuing to deal with a foot injury that has him sidelined for an extended period of time right now, he’s a tough player to get excited about drafting. Mixon has tumbled into risky RB2/3 territory, and I’m avoiding him in most of my drafts this year.
– DBro

David Montgomery could be hard-pressed to turn a profit on his low-end RB2 ADP. He shares work with Jahmyr Gibbs, one of the most talented RBs in the league. Montgomery has averaged 16.8 and 15.8 touches a game in Gibbs’ first two seasons. I’ll bet the under on 15.8 touches a game for Montgomery in 2025, as I expect an uptick in Gibbs’ usage. We could also see a dip in Montgomery’s TD total. He’s scored 13 and 12 touchdowns the last two years, as the Lions ranked first and fifth in scoring those two seasons. If the Lions scale back Montgomery’s usage to give Gibbs more snaps, or if the Detroit offense has hiccups after losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Bears, Monty’s TD total could slip. He’s a quality running back, but I see Montgomery as more of an RB3 than an RB2.
– Fitz

I have some concerns about James Cook heading into the 2025 season. His touchdown totals for the last three seasons: 3, 6, 18. Which number looks like the outlier to you? Cook is being selected as a high-end RB2 in early drafts, which doesn’t seem terribly unreasonable. But TD regression is inevitable, Cook probably isn’t going to get a huge rushing load because he weighs less than 200 pounds, and while he’s a good pass catcher, Cook might not be a huge needle-mover in that area simply because Josh Allen doesn’t check down to his RBs very often. It’s also possible the Bills give more work to second-year RB Ray Davis, who had 152 yards from scrimmage against the Jets in the one game Cook missed last season. But the Bills gave Cook a new deal in mid-August, and he should remain the leader of the Buffalo backfield.
– Fitz

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