Every year, fantasy football experts and managers alike devote countless hours to dissecting ambiguous backfields. These unclear situations are risky, but they are also one of the best places to find cheap upside in your fantasy drafts.
Although they’re not as frequently discussed, the same applies to ambiguous receiver situations. When teams have multiple talented receivers but no clear alpha, their average draft positions (ADPs) are driven down, as fantasy managers want to avoid the risk of backing the wrong horse.
Sometimes, this is the right call, as receivers can cannibalize one another’s value. But more often, one player eventually establishes themselves as the team’s top receiver, and that player ends up being a huge fantasy hit as a result. Meanwhile, other receivers on that team play smaller roles and underperform their ADPs.
That’s what today’s article is about: Attempting to determine which players to target and which to avoid in crowded receiver rooms. I went through this same exercise last year, with mixed results. I correctly identified Nico Collins as an alpha receiver and smash pick, while flagging Jayden Reed and Tank Dell as overvalued. I was also in on Dontayvion Wicks and the Bears’ offense as a whole. Hopefully, this year we can wade through these murky situations to find the values while avoiding pitfalls.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Ambiguous Wide Receiver Situations (Fantasy Football)
Chicago Bears: DJ Moore vs. Rome Odunze vs. Luther Burden III
The Bears featured in last year’s edition of this article, with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze making up a three-headed monster. Allen is now out of the picture, but he has been replaced by an exciting young rookie in second-rounder Luther Burden.
Before we dive into the players, we do have to consider whether this is even a situation worth chasing. Last year, the Bears’ Caleb Williams-led offense was a massive disappointment. All three receivers underperformed their ADPs in terms of points per game. The arrival of Ben Johnson brings new hope, but there’s a chance we are simply setting ourselves up for disappointment yet again.
With that said, it’s easy to see the upside with all three of these players. Moore is an established NFL No. 1 WR with a ton of quality production on his resume at 28 years old. Odunze was the ninth-overall pick in last year’s draft, which still carries weight despite his underwhelming rookie year. Burden didn’t quite get first-round draft capital, but his college production profile screams upside.
If you don’t believe in Williams and the Bears’ offense as a whole, feel free to skip the rest of this article and avoid all three wideouts. That may very well end up being the right decision. But if you still have some hope, read on.
Worst Pick: Rome Odunze
As someone who traded Nabers for Odunze and change in a dynasty league at this time last year, I want to believe in the 23-year-old. We have grown increasingly impatient with top rookies; third-year wide receivers used to be considered breakout candidates, let alone sophomores. But Odunze’s WR35 ADP is just a bit rich for my blood.
At the end of the day, Odunze’s rookie year just wasn’t very good. He ranked 73rd out of qualified wide receivers in PFF receiving grade, right between the corpse of Tyler Lockett and Cardinals slot demon Greg Dortch. He performed even worse on a per-route basis, ranking 81st with just 1.81 yards per route run.
Odunze certainly still could break out. He was an excellent prospect and received elite draft capital. But that capital is much less relevant with a new coach in town who wasn’t around when it was spent.
That the Bears spent not just their second-round pick on Burden but also the 10th-overall pick on another pass-catching weapon in tight end Colston Loveland is not a good sign, either. (By the way, I probably should have mentioned Loveland as a risk factor in the “what if they all disappoint again” section above.) Putting it all together, I just can’t get behind taking Odunze over players like Jordan Addison, Stefon Diggs and even the aforementioned Jauan Jennings.
Best Pick: Luther Burden III
To a certain extent, this is the cop-out answer. With an ADP of WR52, Burden is the cheapest of these three receivers by a good margin. That inherently makes him less risky. If the Bears’ offense implodes again, you’ll be a lot happier having wasted a 12th-round pick on Burden than a fourth-round pick on Moore.
But there’s also a lot to like about Burden regardless of his price. As I mentioned earlier, his analytical prospect profile was excellent. His 2024 season wasn’t quite as impressive, but his 2023 as a 19-year-old true sophomore was elite.
I also don’t think we can discount the fact that Burden is the only one of these three receivers who arrived after Ben Johnson, presumably with Johnson’s input. The former Lions offensive coordinator should be able to cook up some fun plays for Burden’s 4.41 speed.
Burden could easily be nothing as a rookie, whether the Bears’ offense as a whole disappoints or he doesn’t earn a meaningful role. But it’s also not out of the realm of possibility that we reach the fantasy playoffs and he is tearing things up as the No. 1 WR for a reinvigorated Williams. I’m chasing that upside at his relatively low cost.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
