20 Players Experts Target & Avoid (2025 Fantasy Football)

When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into a few notable fantasy football players below. And you can check out which experts are higher or lower than our expert consensus rankings using our Fantasy Football Rankings Comparison Tools.

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Let’s dive into players Derek Brown likes more or less than the expert consensus rankings.

Players to Target

Wide Receivers DBro Likes More Than ECR

Last year, Drake London finally had the TRUE breakout season that I’ve been forecasting for him, as he finally got to experience at least average starting quarterback play for much of the season. London finished as the WR13 in fantasy points per game while ranking third in targets (157) and securing 100 receptions. Last year, he ranked fifth in target share, 11th in receiving yards per game, and 12th in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). With Michael Penix under center in 2025, London could ascend even further up the fantasy wideout ladder. His splits with Kirk Cousins and Penix were eye-popping. Yes, I know it was only a three-game sample with Penix, but it would still be impressive if London could venture even into the general neighborhood of these numbers across a full season. With Cousins, London had a 24.6% target share with 65.6 receiving yards per game and 2.24 yards per route run. Those are solid numbers, but they aren’t top-three wideout numbers like he posted with Penix. With Penix chucking him the rock, London saw his target share soar to 39% with 117.3 receiving yards per game and 3.74 yards per route run. If London can continue even a watered-down version of those numbers for the entirety of 2025, he could be contending for WR1 overall when it’s all said and done. London is a high floor and ceiling pick for 2025.

Mike Evans has finished no lower than WR13 in fantasy points per game over the last four years, and he didn’t show any signs of slowing down last year. While he has dealt with hamstring issues in each of the last three years, he has never played less than 14 games in any season. Last year, Evans ranked 23rd in target share, fifth in yards per route run, 16th in receiving yards per game, fourth in route win rate, and second in separation (per Fantasy Points Data). Evans is primed to produce as a WR1 again in 2025.

George Pickens has been freed from the horrid quarterback play that he has been saddled with since entering the NFL. There’s no doubt that Dak Prescott will be the best quarterback that Pickens has played with during his NFL career. Last year, Pickens finished as the WR35 in fantasy points per game. He proved that he could operate as a number one option, ranking 16th in target share (23.9%), 25th in yards per route run (2.18), ninth in first-read share (32%), and 24th in receiving yards per game (64.3, per Fantasy Points Data). His numbers were even better in Weeks 1-13, before his hamstring injury, when he ranked 18th in separation, eighth in yards per route run (2.53), and 25th in route win rate. Pickens should enjoy the bump in passing volume as CeeDee Lamb’s running mate. Last year, Pittsburgh had the fourth-lowest passing attempts, while Dallas had the third-highest. Pickens should settle in as a strong WR2 this season, who could easily post a career-best season.

The Panthers finally gave Bryce Young a true WR1 this season with their selection of Tetairoa McMillan. The Carolina Panthers selected McMillan inside the top ten in the NFL Draft. McMillan could be a wonderful volume hog this year in what looks to be an ascending passing offense. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, when Young was hitting his stride, the Panthers ranked 13th in neutral passing rate. We could see that number increase this year with a true number one option leading the way. Last year, during that same stretch, Young ranked eighth in CPOE, fifth in deep throw rate, 12th in highly accurate throw rate, and second in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). McMillan is an incredibly talented receiver who can step up quickly. During his final two collegiate seasons, he ranked 17th and 21st in yards per route run. He’s a battle-tested man coverage beater as well. In 2023-2024, McMillan had the third-most and the tenth-most man coverage targets (among FBS wide receivers) while also ranking eighth and tenth in yards per route run against man coverage (per PFF). Don’t be surprised if McMillan is a WR1/2 in his rookie season.

Running Backs DBro Likes More Than ECR

It will fly under the radar that Kenneth Walker was the RB12 in fantasy points per game last season. Unfortunately, his season was cut short by injuries, but if Walker can stay healthy in 2025, he could finally put it all together with a top-five running back season. Walker proved last year that not only is he still one of the best pure rushing talents in the league, but he is also a true three-down back with passing-catching chops. Among 45 qualifying backs, Walker ranked third in first downs per route run, sixth in target per route run rate, and sixth in receiving yards per game (per Fantasy Points Data). Add all of that on top of leading the NFL in missed tackles forced per attempt and ranking tenth in yards after contact per attempt, and Walker could be a league-winner in 2025.

RJ Harvey is set to explode in his rookie season. The runway is clear for takeoff. Sean Payton just put second-round capital behind a back that enters a room with Audric Estime, Jaleel McLaughlin, and J.K. Dobbins. No, I’m not worried about Estime or McLaughlin when they couldn’t carve out consistent roles last year with only the ghost of Javonte Williams standing in their way. Dobbins will assist Harvey on early downs so Denver doesn’t run their talented rookie into the ground, but I don’t project him taking away passing down work or high-leverage opportunities. It’s hard not to love a player like Harvey, who has ranked inside the top 20 among FBS running backs in each of the last two seasons in breakaway percentage and elusive rating (per PFF). Add in Payton’s running back usage, and Harvey looks primed to smash. Over the last two years, Payton has ranked fifth and first in running back target share. Harvey is a strong RB2 who could finish as an RB1 this season.

Tony Pollard had a strong 2024 season as the Titans’ workhorse starter. He ranked ninth in snap share, opportunity, and weighted opportunities. Pollard finished as the RB22 in fantasy points per game while ranking 18th in explosive run rate and sixth in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). The pitiful nature of the Titans’ offense last year outside of Pollard crushed his season. He was only 22nd in red zone touches and was the RB15 in expected fantasy points per game. If Cam Ward can elevate this offensive ecosystem and Pollard can retain this awesome role, he could finish as a high-end RB2 this season.

Players to Avoid

Wide Receivers DBro Likes Less Than ECR

The signing of Keenan Allen impacts Ladd McConkey’s 2025 outlook. McConkey was amazing in his rookie season. Last year in Weeks 8-18, he was the WR11 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in receiving yards per game (89), fifth in yards per route run (2.97), and ninth in first downs per route run (0.127). He did all of that while only ranking 26th in target share (22.9%) and 21st in first read share (29.9%, per Fantasy Points Data). During that stretch, McConkey was on pace for 124 targets last year, which would have ranked 16th among wide receivers. Over the full season, he only amassed 112 targets (23rd among wide receivers). Last year in Weeks 7-18, the Bolts ranked eighth in neutral passing rate and sixth-best in pass rate over expectation. In Greg Roman’s history as an offensive coordinator, his offenses have only once ranked higher than 28th in passing attempts. While the Bolts were pass-heavy down the stretch last year, Roman has a long history of being run-centric. With Allen now on the team, there are only so many targets to go around, and that fact could limit McConkey with WR2 production. McConkey has already displayed the talent to make the most of his opportunities, but I don’t know if he can outkick the volume concerns. If he slips into the WR2 range in drafts, I’ll happily snap him up, but I won’t be paying a WR1 price tag for him this year.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out in a big way in his sophomore season. He was the WR17 in fantasy points per game and really exploded down the stretch. In Weeks 9-18, he was the WR8 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in target share (25.4%), tenth in receiving yards per game (82.4), and ninth in yards per route run and first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). I was very bullish about Smith-Njigba last year, but I find myself worried about his 2025 outlook. The Seattle Seahawks are going to lean on their ground game more this season after ranking sixth in pass rate over expectation and fourth in neutral passing rate in 2024. Even if Smith-Njigba proves that he can pick up right where he left off, his raw target volume could dip this season. I’m also worried about him playing more on the perimeter this season. Last year, during that insane stretch, he ran out of the slot on 81.3% of his snaps. Last year, his separation (0.035 vs. 0.068) and route win rate (9.4% vs. 10.4%) were notably worse as a perimeter wide receiver, while also noting that his overall numbers in these metrics were surprisingly poor. Overall, among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 62nd in separation score and 88th in route win rate. Smith-Njigba could return low-end WR2 value this season, but he’s a tough player to click as a high-end WR2/ borderline WR1.

Father Time remains undefeated. Tyreek Hill could see his efficiency dip again this season another year older. Last year, with Tua Tagovailoa under center (Weeks 8-16), Hill was the WR24 in fantasy points per game while ranking 36th in yards per route run, 34th in target share, and 33rd in receiving yards per game. Overall, last year, he was 28th in separation and 48th in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). None of this screams, “Hill is a top 15-20 wide receiver this season & a must-draft player.” Hill could return WR2 value in 2025 if he can hold off Father Time and rebound from the wrist injury that plagued him last season. If Hill dips in drafts, I’ll get exposure to him, but he’s not a player I’m prioritizing in drafts.

Marvin Harrison Jr. didn’t come close to living up to the hype in his rookie season. Harrison Jr. finished as the WR39 in fantasy points per game and the WR27 in expected fantasy points per game. After such a disappointing first year, we’re left wondering, entering year two, “Can Harrison live up to last year’s hype and breakout in 2025?” I’ll start by saying I’m doubtful, and I’ll likely remain below consensus on him entering the year, but there’s a pathway for it to happen. Ok, let’s get back to 2024. In Weeks 1-9, Arizona deployed Harrison Jr. primarily as a downfield receiver, with only 29.9% of his routes being horizontal breaking routes and 49.6% of them being vertical breaking routes. In that sample, he drew a 21.4% target share (32nd) with 49.4 receiving yards per game (43rd), a 28.2% first-read share (29th), 0.093 first downs per route run (36th), and 1.97 yards per route run (38th, per Fantasy Points Data). This was a horrible game plan by Arizona’s coaching staff. Last year, Harrison Jr. ranked 84th and 51st in vertical route-breaking separation and route win rate as opposed to 16th and 19th in those categories when it came to horizontal-breaking routes. The good thing for Harrison Jr. is in Weeks 10-18, his horizontal route % climbed to 41.4%, while vertical breaking routes made up 38.5% of his usage. The problem is that in Weeks 10-18, his numbers didn’t improve; instead, they actually worsened with the usage change. He had a 20.6% target share (33rd), 55 receiving yards per game (37th), a 27.1% first-read share, 0.078 first downs per route run, and 1.56 yards per route run. His late-season usage and per-route numbers with horizontal routes offer hope, but his declining efficiency with the usage change muddies the 2025 waters. Harrison is a tough player to get excited about, given his usage and efficiency are in question, and there are no concrete answers to suggest we should expect better results moving forward.

Running Backs DBro Likes Less Than ECR

Jonathan Taylor posted another RB1 season (RB7 in fantasy points per game) while dealing with a high ankle sprain. He racked up 321 touches and 1,567 total yards with 12 scores. While I think Taylor should post another top 12 season in 2025, I do have some concerns. The quarterback play for Indy is a worry with how often they could be in the red zone this year, as well as his lack of pass-game involvement. Last year, Taylor ranked sixth in red zone touches. I don’t know if he comes close to that number this season, but I could easily be wrong. I don’t see more check-down opportunities for Taylor this season with Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson under center. It’s not like he’s demanding those looks either, with his per-route performance in 2024, anyway. Last year, among 45 qualifying backs, Taylor ranked 37th in target share (7.4%) and 43rd in yards per route run and first downs per route run. Taylor is a solid pick again this year, but I struggle to see a ceiling outcome for him in 2025.

Last year, Kyren Williams pulled off his best yesteryear Rachaad White or Leonard Fournette impression. A volume gobbling inefficient back who turned in an RB1 season (RB10). Williams ranked first in snap share, second in opportunity share, and first in red zone touches. Williams had 350 touches and 1,481 total yards. With all that said, Williams was one of the most inefficient per-touch backs in the NFL. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 44th in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Williams could retain his stranglehold on the volume again with the new contract secured, but it’s also possible that Blake Corum or Jarquez Hunter could eat into his workload. Williams is a top 15-20 running back who could easily be an RB1 again or see his stock come crashing down.

Omarion Hampton lands with the Bolts after hearing his name called in the first round of the NFL Draft. The only uncertainty around Hampton’s 2025 outlook is the division of the workload between him and Najee Harris. Harris has been a steady but uninspiring backfield option over the last few years. This could impede Hampton’s initial take-off, but with the uncertainty of Harris’s availability after the eye injury Hampton could hit the ground running earlier than anticipated. Drafting Hampton is a bet on his talent and draft capital taking over as time rolls on. Across his final two collegiate seasons, Hampton ranked 12th and 11th in yards after contact per attempt and 16th and 26th in elusive rating (per PFF). There should be plenty of rushing volume to go around, even if Harris hangs around in a supporting role. In Greg Roman’s 11 years of coordinating NFL offenses, he’s never finished lower than 11th in rushing attempts (last year). Hampton is best viewed as a borderline RB2 with some risk that could massively outplay his ADP if things break right.