Players Who Will Make or Break Your Draft (Fantasy Football)

When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average.

You can also see which players create the most debate among experts by checking out the standard deviation in their rankings. The higher the standard deviation, the more disagreement there is among experts as to where a player should be ranked. These players can be the ones who make or break your fantasy football drafts. Getting these picks right can lay the foundation for a fantasy football championship. Let’s dive into a few notable fantasy football players who could make or break your draft.

Fantasy Football Advice: Make or Break Draft Picks

Here are players in our ECR top 60 fantasy football draft rankings that are causing the most disagreement among experts based on where they are going in drafts.

RK	TIERS	PLAYER NAME	TEAM	POS	BEST	WORST	AVG.	STD.DEV	ECR VS. ADP
4	1	Saquon Barkley	PHI	RB3	1	12	4.6	2.3	-1
9	2	Christian McCaffrey	SF	RB4	3	21	10.7	4.4	-2
15	2	Drake London	ATL	WR9	7	31	15.4	4.7	2
16	3	De’Von Achane	MIA	RB7	7	33	17.2	4.9	-2
19	3	Jonathan Taylor	IND	RB8	10	47	19.6	6.3	-1
31	4	Tyreek Hill	MIA	WR14	20	59	33.8	7.3	-2
35	4	James Cook	BUF	RB13	20	64	35.3	6.8	-5
36	4	Davante Adams	LAR	WR17	17	58	36.4	6.9	9
38	4	Omarion Hampton	LAC	RB14	24	95	39	11.5	-5
43	5	Breece Hall	NYJ	RB17	17	67	45	9	-9
45	5	Joe Burrow	CIN	QB5	22	69	46.7	10.1	-8
46	5	DK Metcalf	PIT	WR21	31	93	47.8	10.2	1
49	5	TreVeyon Henderson	NE	RB19	27	71	49.3	9.1	0
52	5	Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	WR24	30	91	52.9	13.7	11
53	5	Jameson Williams	DET	WR25	38	93	55.8	11.9	12
54	5	Xavier Worthy	KC	WR26	33	103	56.3	12.8	2
55	5	Calvin Ridley	TEN	WR27	32	95	57	11.5	13
56	5	George Pickens	DAL	WR28	33	89	58.8	13	5
57	5	Zay Flowers	BAL	WR29	41	101	59.4	11.7	7

Last year, Joe Burrow was the QB3 in fantasy points per game, finishing with career bests in nearly every statistical category. He led the NFL in passing attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. Burrow also excelled on a per-dropback basis, ranking 12th in yards per attempt, first in CPOE, and fifth in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). The crazy thing is he is primed to do it again in 2025, possibly. Last year, Cincy ranked first in neutral passing rate and pass rate over expectation, and there’s nothing to stop them from doing so again. The Bengals’ defense might be even worse this season, so there should be plenty of games where Burrow is playing catch-up, chucking the rock around the yard. His skill player cupboard is intact, so we should see Burrow hovering around the top-five fantasy quarterbacks this season.
– Derek Brown

It’s worrisome that Saquon Barkley had 482 touches last season, playoffs included. Maybe he’s at greater risk of injury this year after handling such a massive workload, but it’s hard to quantify the risk. What we can judge with a greater degree of certainty is that Barkley is a phenomenal running back and has a near-perfect ecosystem, playing with a great offensive line in a run-heavy offense. Barkley might not be able to top a 2024 regular season in which he had 2,283 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns, but if he stays healthy, he’s a good bet to finish as a top-five fantasy RB.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Christian McCaffrey’s 2024 season was derailed by bilateral Achilles tendonitis. Yes, I know it crushed many fantasy teams. Yes, I know that if you drafted him last year, you’re probably saying, “hell no…I won’t be walking down that road again.” I’ll get this out of the way quickly. I’m back in. George Kittle had similar issues with his Achilles, but after he received stem cell infusions, it hasn’t remained a problem. McCaffrey had a similar treatment last year and enters this season fully healthy from all reports. In the small sample we got from McCaffrey last year, his numbers remained strong. In the three full games he played, he averaged 18.6 touches and 93.7 total yards, all while playing 81-94% of the snaps. McCaffrey’s 22% missed tackle forced rate and his 1.80 yards per route run were strong (per Fantasy Points Data). Among those two statistical categories, McCaffrey ranked eighth-best (70 qualifying backs) and sixth-best (53 qualifying backs). McCaffrey has at least one more big season left. I’ll be investing heavily in him for 2025.
– Derek Brown

Drake London posted career-best numbers across the board in his third NFL season, finishing with 100 catches for 1,271 yards and nine touchdowns on 158 targets. Michael Penix is taking over as Atlanta’s starting QB this season, and London really clicked with the young QB when he got a late-season audition last year. In the three starts Penix made at the end of the regular season, London had 22 catches for 352 and two touchdowns on 39 targets. The 6-foot-4 London has a huge wingspan and reliable hands. He has become a blue-chip wide receiver and now warrants a top-15 selection in fantasy drafts.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

I have some concerns about James Cook heading into the 2025 season. His touchdown totals for the last three seasons: 3, 6, 18. Which number looks like the outlier to you? Cook is being selected as a high-end RB2 in early drafts, which doesn’t seem terribly unreasonable. But TD regression is inevitable, Cook probably isn’t going to get a huge rushing load because he weighs less than 200 pounds, and while he’s a good pass catcher, Cook might not be a huge needle-mover in that area simply because Josh Allen doesn’t check down to his RBs very often. It’s also possible the Bills give more work to second-year RB Ray Davis, who had 152 yards from scrimmage against the Jets in the one game Cook missed last season. But the Bills gave Cook a new deal in mid-August, and he should remain the leader of the Buffalo backfield.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Tetairoa McMillan lands in an ideal situation to emerge as the alpha wideout in Carolina. Drafted with top-10 capital (8th overall) the former Arizona star joins a Panthers offense in need of a true WR1. McMillan brings size, production and opportunity to a WR room featuring an underwhelming Xavier Legette and a promising but undrafted Jalen Coker. T-Mac was just one of 3 WRs in the FBS in 2023 to hit 1,396 yards, 10 TDs, and 89 receptions. The others being fellow top-10 WR draft selections: Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze. If Bryce Young takes even a modest step forward and continues to fuel fantasy success for his No. 1 target, McMillan could be this year’s breakout rookie receiver.
– Andrew Erickson

Omarion Hampton piled up 3,164 rushing yards and 30 TD runs over his last two seasons at North Carolina and had 67 receptions over that span. The 220-pound Hampton is a powerful downhill runner who’s a nightmare to bring down when he has a full head of steam. He’s terrific between the tackles, squeezing through tight spaces and powering through contact. The Chargers grabbed Hampton at No. 22 in the draft. With Najee Harris not yet recovered from the eye injury he sustained in a Fourth of July fireworks mishap, it’s possible Hampton could handle an enormous workload for the Chargers right away.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Zay Flowers has settled in as a consistent WR3 for fantasy purposes, and I don’t see that changing in 2025, especially with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. Over the last two seasons, Flowers has been the WR31 and WR32 in fantasy points per game. He’s outplayed expectations as he was the WR38 and WR33 in expected fantasy points per game in each season. Last year, among 85 qualifying receivers, he ranked 14th in target share (24.1%), 27th in receiving yards per game (62.3), 17th in yards per route run (2.35), 18th in first-read share (30%), and 20th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). With the addition of Hopkins and an impending bounceback season for Mark Andrews, Flowers likely won’t be leaping into WR2 territory this year and could regress into low-end WR3 territory.
– Derek Brown

Tyreek Hill was a mega bust in 2024, but so much of his poor performance can be placed on the injury to Tua Tagovailoa. Now, admittedly, even when Tua was healthy, Hill still underperformed vs. draft expectations. In those 11 games with his southpaw starting QB, Hill went over 100 yards twice, averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game (WR18). He had a wrist injury that he dealt with from Week 1 and his yards per route run cratered to a 1.75 mark – less than half of his 2023 yards per route run. Not to mention, the Cheetah just turned 31 years old, suggesting the age cliff might be near. And let’s not forget Hill’s outburst at the end of the 2024 season, which could lead to Miami moving on from the veteran WR.
– Andrew Erickson

Since missing the 2022 season due to a gambling suspension, Calvin Ridley has produced two straight 1,000-yard seasons and hasn’t missed a game over that span. He endured gruesome quarterbacking in Tennessee last year, and now Ridley gets to play with top overall draft pick Cam Ward, an aggressive downfield thrower. Ridley is the Titans’ undisputed No. 1 receiver, and I think he’s likely to see more than the 120 targets he had last season. There’s a good chance Ridley will provide WR2 numbers at a low-end WR3 price.
– Pat Fitzmaurice