Beyond the Waiver Wire: Fantasy Football Moves to Make (Week 2)

Welcome back, everybody! We’ve got NFL Week 1 officially in the books and a lot to recap from ALL the action! My goal with this weekly piece is to provide you with the most critical KEY ACTION items from every game – waiver wire pickups, trade, add, drop, stash, buy, sell, start, sit, etc. – for your fantasy football team based on what happened the previous week. Let me do the work of scouring through the data and film so you can just follow my lead. As my college marketing professor always said, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is at its finest.

Obviously, I’ll cite data and what I observed on film from the past weekend’s matchups, highlighting what matters most and what’s potentially just noise. I will make a strong effort to feature players coming off polarizing performances, as they are sure to be the ones fantasy managers have the most question marks about.

And I’d be more than happy to include certain tables where I see they fit and/or where there is a demand.

Again, the idea behind the Fantasy Forecast (now named BEYOND THE WAIVER WIRE) has always been about identifying which players are running routes, seeing high snap shares, and earning high-value targets, as these tend to be precursors for future fantasy production. And sometimes, they don’t always appear in the normal box score.

So, without further ado…let’s GO beyond the waiver wire for Week 2 to prepare our rosters for future success.

To infinity and beyond (the waiver wire)!

Beyond the Waiver Wire: Fantasy Football Moves to Make

Houston Texans

Buy Nico Collins, Add Jayden Higgins/Jaylin Noel, Add Dalton Schultz

Rushing Game

• Nick Chubb – Led the backfield with a 51% snap share and looked strong despite Houston’s offensive line struggles.
  • 13 carries, 60 yards (4.6 YPC), forcing seven missed tackles per NFL Next Gen stats. Impressive given the matchup against a fierce Rams defensive line.
  • Clear RB1 workhorse role here — cemented before the game and confirmed after.
  • Minimal receiving involvement (1 target), but that’s expected based on how he has been deployed throughout his career.
• Dare Ogunbowale – Secondary RB, mostly 3rd-down work (27% snap share, 100% snaps on third down).
  • Lost a late-game fumble in the red zone, costing the Texans a chance at winning the game.
  • Role remains limited; unlikely to challenge Chubb for early downs.
• Dameon Pierce – Down to just 11% of snaps.
• Woody Marks – Also, 11% snap share and firmly buried on the depth chart. Drop candidate.

Fantasy Take: Nick Chubb is a locked-in early down workhorse as long as Joe Mixon remains out (if and when he returns at all). Marks is droppable, Pierce’s role is just as a handcuff, and Ogunbowale has minimal standalone value.

Passing Game

• C.J. Stroud – Took a lot of pressure behind a patchwork offensive line.
  • Pressured on 41% of dropbacks vs. the Rams’ strong front.
  • His 14th game facing a pressure rate of 40% or higher since he entered the league in 2023 (tied for most such games in the NFL via Next Gen Stats).
  • Still showed poise: 9-of-10 completions under pressure for 102 yards.
  • Also added five carries for 32 yards.
• Dalton Schultz – Led the team with five targets, three receptions, 28 yards.
• Cade Stover – four targets, four receptions, 22 yards.
• Nico Collins – five targets, three catches, 25 yards, led WRs in snap share (84%).
  • Commanded an 18.5% Target share.
  • One red-zone target but failed to convert.
  • Considered as a buy-low trade target candidate.
• Jayden Higgins – Rookie flashed: three targets, two catches, 32 yards, led team in air yards (53, 30%). Played 42% of snaps. 25% target rate per route run. Stash.
• Jaylin Noel – Disappointing showing with two targets, one catch for 7 yards. Played just 28% of snaps but ran routes on 53% of dropbacks (3rd-most) due to filling slot duties with Christian Kirk out. Stash.
• Justin Watson – 2 catches, 27 yards, played 56% of snaps. More involved than expected. 33% target rate.
• Xavier Hutchinson – Played 68% of snaps but was lightly targeted as Texans WR2.

Fantasy Take: Nico Collins remains the WR1 and a buy-low target after a quiet game. Jayden Higgins and Jalen Noel are worth stashing as their roles should expand, especially if Christian Kirk’s hamstring lingers.

Tight Ends

• Cade Stover – Played slightly more snaps (58%) than Dalton Schultz (52%), but Schultz ran more routes (62% vs. 50%).
• Schultz still projects as the preferred fantasy option given usage patterns, but it’s better to avoid with the guys splitting so much.
• Stover was the better long-term bet. He’s a former teammate of Stroud’s from their time spent at Ohio State. Also targeted on 27% of his routes run. However, we got news on Monday that Stover broke his foot and that will likely sideline him for a substantial amount of time.

Advanced Metrics

• Routes Run:
  • Nico Collins – Led the team
  • Xavier Hutchinson – Second (67%)
  • Dalton Schultz – 62% route participation
  • Jaylin Noel – 53% routes run despite low snaps: positive usage sign.
• Target Share:
  • Nico Collins – 18.5%
  • Dalton Schultz – 15.6%
  • Others were spread evenly. No receiver for the Texans got more than 35 receiving yards.
• Air Yards:
  • Jayden Higgins led with 53 air yards (30%) and two deep targets.
• End Zone Usage:
  • No Texans receiver had an end-zone target, with the offense consistently stalling near the red zone.
  • Nick Chubb profiles as the likely red-zone back moving forward, even though Pierce had the lone red-zone attempt in Week 1.

Offensive Line Injuries

• Already down multiple starters and lost Jake Andrews (foot injury, carted off).
• Constantly shifting guys throughout the game
• Despite that, run blocking looked better than expected.

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: vs. Buccaneers (home)
• Week 3: at Jaguars
• Week 4: vs. Titans
• Week 5: at Ravens
• Week 6: BYE

Fantasy Take: Schedule gets softer, making Texans buy-low candidates — especially Nico Collins. I still view him as a potential top 5 fantasy wide receiver, especially considering the other receivers on the Texans are largely unproven, and Kirk is dealing with a hamstring injury.

Schultz might be a low-key add for those in desperate need of a tight end.

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Los Angeles Rams

Hold Davante Adams

Running Backs

• Kyren Williams – Clear RB1 workhorse: 18 carries, 66 yards, 1 TD, played 82% of snaps.
  • Minimal passing-game involvement (2 targets, one catch, 3 yards).
  • Owned all first-half carries and dominated red-zone work (4 carries inside the 20, scored once).
  • Sean McVay loves him in this grinder role.
• Blake Corum – Only one carry for 2 yards, 17% snap share.
  • Zero passing-game usage.
  • No RB committee here — Kyren owns this backfield.

Wide Receivers

• Puka Nacua – The star yet again: 11 targets, 10 receptions, 130 yards despite playing just 63% of snaps due to concussion checks and head injury bandages.
  • Ran 76% of snaps from the slot — huge usage shift, creating mismatches.
  • Insane 52% target per route run rate.
  • Led team in air yards (92, 39% share).
• Davante Adams – Rams debut: 8 targets, 4 catches, 51 yards.
  • Played 90% of snaps and faced heavy coverage from Derek Stingley Jr.
  • Strong underlying usage; buy-low candidate.
• Tutu Atwell – Played 42% snaps, ran more routes than Jordan Whittington, but had limited looks.
  • Clear WR3 when everyone’s healthy.
• Jordan Whittington – Played 50% snaps, filling in while Puka was banged up.
  • Made explosive plays (many negated by penalties).
  • Potential next man up if Puka or Adams misses time.

Tight Ends

• Tyler Higbee – Played 58% snaps, ran the most routes, but had zero targets.
  • Pure cardio game, but still leads TE room in snaps.
• Colby Parkinson – Played 48% snaps, had one red-zone target but didn’t score. Also suffered a sprained AC joint. He did re-enter the game.
• Davis Allen – Played 37% snaps, two targets, one catch, 13 yards, 1 TD.
  • Red-zone threat, but usage too volatile to trust.

Advanced Receiving Metrics

• Route Participation:
  • Puka Nacua – 63% snaps but elite target dominance (52% TPRR).
  • Davante Adams – Strong 31% TPRR.
  • Tutu Atwell – More routes than Whittington but fewer targets.
• Air Yards:
  • Puka Nacua – 92 air yards (39% share).
  • Davante Adams – 70 air yards (30% share).
• Red Zone Usage:
  • Kyren Williams – 4 red-zone carries, scored once.
  • Davis Allen – Red-zone TD.
  • Colby Parkinson – 1 red-zone target.
  • Jordan Whittington – 1 red-zone carry.

Injuries & Offensive Line Notes

• Steve Avila – Guard, sprained ankle, week-to-week.
• Kevin Dotson – Guard, also sprained ankle, week-to-week.
  • Losing two interior starters is a concern, especially with an older Matthew Stafford.
• Monitor pass protection moving forward — run blocking was solid, but OL depth is shaky.

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: at Titans
• Week 3: at Eagles
• Week 4: vs. Colts
• Week 5: vs. 49ers
• Week 6: at Baltimore

Fantasy Take: Adams more than held his own against one of the NFL’s best CBs. If Nacua were to miss anytime, he would absolutely feast in this offense. Obviously, Adams comes with concerns related to his QB behind a banged-up OL, but the upside case for Adams is very apparent.

Baltimore Ravens

Sell Zay Flowers, Sell Mark Andrews

Running Backs

• Derrick Henry – Absolute monster performance: 18 carries, 169 yards, two rushing TDs, but lost a costly fumble late.
  • Played 57% of snaps, dominating early downs.
  • Added one catch for 13 yards.
  • Locked-in RB1 despite workload split.
• Justice Hill – Clear passing-down back with 45% snap share.
  • Handles 3rd downs and obvious passing situations.
  • Limited rushing work, not fantasy-relevant outside deep PPR leagues

Wide Receivers

• Zay Flowers – Star of the show: 9 targets, seven receptions, 143 yards, 1 TD.
  • Commanded an elite 47% Target share and 45% target-per-route-run rate.
  • Ran routes on 91% of dropbacks, showing WR1-level usage.
  • Scored on his lone end-zone target and looked electric after the catch.
  • Unfortunately, I think Flowers is probably a sell-high given the optics of the situation. Stellar prime-time performance, where the other WRs/TEs were barely involved.
  • It was an ideal spot for Flowers to post a career game against a depleted Bills secondary.
• DeAndre Hopkins – Made an insane one-handed TD grab: 2 targets, two catches, 35 yards, 1 TD.
  • Limited usage (35% snaps, 50% routes run) but extremely efficient.
  • Role could grow in softer matchups; still a volatile weekly WR4.
• Rashod Bateman – Quiet day: 4 targets, two catches, 10 yards, played 73% snaps, ran routes on 82%.
  • Usage was fine, but production was lacking; deep-league stash only.

Tight Ends

• Mark Andrews – Major red flags: 1 target, 1 catch, 5 yards despite playing 75% of snaps.
  • Ran routes on only 59% of dropbacks, far below elite TE1 levels.
  • Concern amplified by Isaiah Likely’s absence — Andrews underperformed even without competition.
  • Trending toward a sell candidate (even though he always struggles versus the Bills).
• Charlie Kolar – Played 61% snaps, limited usage, not fantasy-relevant unless Andrews misses time.

Advanced Metrics

• Route Participation:
  • Zay Flowers – 91%
  • Rashod Bateman – 82%
  • DeAndre Hopkins – 50%
  • Mark Andrews – 59%
• Target Share:
  • Zay Flowers – 47%
  • Everyone else under 15%.
• End-Zone Targets:
  • Zay Flowers – 1 (converted for TD)
  • DeAndre Hopkins – 1 deep TD grab
• Air Yards:
  • Flowers dominated, Hopkins contributed with one deep connection.

Injuries & Notes

• Isaiah Likely – Out Week 1 (knee), return TBD.
  • If back soon, further limits Andrews’ ceiling.
• Patrick Ricard – DNP Week 1.

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: vs. Browns (home)
• Week 3: vs. Lions (home)
• Week 4: at Chiefs
• Week 5: vs. Texans (home)
• Week 6: vs. Rams (home)
• Week 7: BYE

Fantasy Take: No better time than now to sell high on Zay Flowers.

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Buffalo Bills

Buy/Hold Keon Coleman

Quarterback

• Josh Allen – Busy as both a passer and runner:
  • 14 carries, 30 rushing yards, two rushing TDs
  • Spread the ball well through the air, supporting three WRs with 9+ targets each.

Running Backs

• James Cook – 13 carries, 44 yards, 1 rushing TD, plus five receptions, 58 yards on five targets.
  • Played 56% of snaps — steady lead-back role similar to last season.
  • Also handled all four red-zone rushing attempts, securing RB1 usage.
• Ty Johnson – Just two carries, 24 yards, 33% snap share.
• Ray Davis – Minimal involvement: 1 carry, 10 snaps (12%).

Wide Receivers

• Keon Coleman – Massive breakout: 11 targets, eight receptions, 112 yards, 1 TD.
  • Played 88% snaps, ran routes on 83% of dropbacks.
  • Led team in air yards (144, 33% share) and red-zone targets (2).
  • Also featured on multiple two-point attempts.
  • Emerging as the potential alpha WR1.
  • However, be warned that he will get a tough CB matchup in Week 2 versus the New York Jets (Sauce Gardner).
• Khalil Shakir – 9 targets, six receptions, 64 yards, 71% snaps, 83% route participation.
  • Two red-zone targets, but didn’t score.
  • Reliable WR3 in PPR formats.
  • Looked fine coming off the high ankle sprain injury.
• Josh Palmer – 9 targets, five receptions, 61 yards, 62% snaps, 69% routes run.
  • Two red-zone looks, solid WR3/flex usage moving forward. Should produce versus the Jets, given he will get the more favorable CB matchups.
• Usage Note: Bills’ WR trio (Coleman, Shakir, Palmer) commanded 29 of 42 team targets (69%) — concentrated passing game.

Tight Ends

• Dalton Kincaid – Efficient but overall concerning usage: 4 targets, four receptions, 48 yards, 1 TD.
  • Played 51% snaps, ran routes on just 55% of dropbacks.
  • Heavy first-half involvement (3 catches, 37 yards, TD) but only one second-half target, inconsistent role.
  • Still a low-end fantasy TE1
• Dawson Knox – Out-snapped Kincaid but lightly targeted; remains touchdown-dependent TE2.

Advanced Receiving Metrics

• Route Participation:
  • Keon Coleman: 83%
  • Khalil Shakir: 83%
  • Josh Palmer: 69%
  • Dalton Kincaid: 55%
• Target Share:
  • Keon Coleman: 24%
  • Josh Palmer: 21%
  • Khalil Shakir: 19%
• Air Yards:
  • Coleman: 144 (33%)
  • Palmer: 120 (28%)
  • Shakir: 90
• Red-Zone Usage:
  • Keon Coleman: 2 targets
  • Khalil Shakir: 2 targets
  • Josh Palmer: 2 targets
  • James Cook: 4 red-zone carries

Injuries & Notes

• Bills’ secondary remains banged up; expect high-scoring environments in the coming weeks.

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: at Jets
• Week 3: vs. Dolphins
• Week 4: vs. Saints
• Week 5: vs. Patriots
• Week 6: at Falcons
• Week 7: BYE

Fantasy Take: Just brace yourself for a Keon Coleman Week 2 letdown.

Green Bay Packers

Sell Jayden Reed, Add Romeo Doubs, Buy Tucker Kraft

Quarterback

• Jordan Love – Efficient game management:
  • 12-of-16 passing in the first half, finished with 22 total attempts.
  • The Packers leaned heavily on the run after halftime due to the game script.
  • Expect passing volume to rise in more competitive matchups.

Running Backs

• Josh Jacobs – Dominant workhorse: 19 carries, 66 yards, 1 TD, plus one target.
  • Played 88% of snaps and handled five red-zone carries.
  • Locked-in RB1 with elite usage and game-script-proof role.
• Chris Brooks – 1 carry, 1 yard, 19% snap share, one red-zone target, but minimal role.
• Emanuel Wilson – 1 carry, 4 yards, 7% snaps. Drop candidate.

Wide Receivers

• Romeo Doubs – Led team in receiving yards: 4 targets, two catches, 68 yards.
  • Played 71% of snaps, ran routes on 65% of dropbacks.
  • Saw two red-zone targets and remains Jordan Love’s preferred end-zone weapon.
• Jayden Reed – Team leader in targets: 5 targets, three receptions, 45 yards, 1 TD.
  • Played 38% snaps (foot injury, slot-only deployment), but commanded elite usage:
    • 42% target per route rate
    • 23% overall Target share
  • Efficiency makes him enticing, but he’s a ticking time bomb while he plays through this foot injury. Use him while you have him, but I’d try to get out sooner rather than later.
• Dontayvion Wicks – 2 targets, two catches, 30 yards, 46% snaps, ran routes on 48% of dropbacks.
• Matthew Golden – 2 catches, 16 yards, two targets, 48% snaps, but 4th in routes run (43%). Popped up on the injury report with an ankle, which might have contributed to the lack of total snaps. Hold for now.
• Savion Williams – Rookie played three snaps (6%), one red-zone target, no production.

Tight Ends

• Tucker Kraft – Emerging as an every-down TE1:
  • Played 92% snaps, ran the most routes on the team.
  • 4 targets, 2 catches, 16 yards, 1 TD.
  • Locked-in breakout candidate; priority buy among TEs.

Advanced Receiving Metrics

• Route Participation:
  • Romeo Doubs: 65%
  • Jayden Reed: 52%
  • Dontayvion Wicks: 48%
  • Matthew Golden: 43%
  • Tucker Kraft: Led team
• Target Share:
  • Jayden Reed: 23%
  • Romeo Doubs:18%
  • Others <15%
• Air Yards:
  • Romeo Doubs: 85 (37% share)
• Red-Zone Usage:
  • Josh Jacobs: 5 carries, 1 TD
  • Romeo Doubs: 2 targets
  • Jayden Reed: 1 TD in red zone
  • Tucker Kraft:1 TD
  • Savion Williams: 1 target

Injuries & Notes

• Jayden Reed – Limited by a foot injury, deployed slot-only; usage likely to rise if and/when he recovers.
• OL concerns: Guard Aaron Banks and OT Zach Tom banged up; monitor for Thursday night.
• Expect ongoing WR rotation; Packers leaning into “everyone eats” philosophy early.

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: vs. Commanders (TNF)
• Week 3: at Browns
• Week 4: at Cowboys
• Week 5: BYE

Fantasy Take: Buy Tucker Kraft

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Detroit Lions

Sell David Montgomery, Buy Other Lions

Offensive Overview

• Lions struggled heavily under new OC John Morton against Green Bay.
• Offensive line downgrade was very noticeable — no run-game push, limited explosive plays.
• Passing game leaned heavily on checkdowns to RBs, particularly Jahmyr Gibbs.

Running Backs

• David Montgomery – 11 carries, 25 yards (2.3 YPC), four targets, 4 receptions, 18 yards.
  • Played 37% of snaps; usage hurt by game script and OL struggles.
  • Lacks upside if Lions continue leaning short-pass heavy under Morton.
  • Sell.
• Jahmyr Gibbs – 9 carries, 19 yards (2.1 YPC), 10 targets, 10 receptions, 31 yards.
  • Played 66% snaps and handled two red-zone carries, catching both red-zone targets.
  • Commanded elite receiving volume (38% target per route run rate, 10 targets total).
  • Locked-in PPR RB1 profile.
  • Gibbs’s 66% snap rate in his debut was the second-highest snap rate he has played since 2024, alongside a healthy David Montgomery.

Wide Receivers

• Amon-Ra St. Brown – 6 targets, four receptions, 45 yards, played a typical full-time role.
  • Saw two red-zone targets but didn’t score.
• Jameson Williams – 5 targets, four receptions, 23 yards, played 97% of snaps.
  • Buy low on the talent.
• Isaac TeSlaa – Rookie highlight: 1 target, one catch, 13 yards, 1 TD (red-zone).
  • Not yet a consistent option.

Tight Ends

• Sam LaPorta – 9 targets, six receptions, 79 yards, ran routes on 88% of dropbacks.
  • Also had two red-zone targets but didn’t score; positive TD regression coming.
  • Locked-in TE1 usage profile

Advanced Metrics

• Route Participation:
  • Jameson Williams: 97%
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown: 95%
  • Sam LaPorta: 88%
• Target Share:
  • Jahmyr Gibbs: 10 targets (RB-leading)
  • Sam LaPorta: 23%
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown: 17%
• Air Yards:
  • Very limited downfield passing; LaPorta led the team (45 air yards).
  • Lions relied heavily on short-area passing.
• Red-Zone Usage:
  • Jahmyr Gibbs: 2 carries, two targets
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown: 2 targets
  • Sam LaPorta: 2 targets
  • Isaac TeSlaa: 1 TD

Injuries & Notes

• CB Terrion Arnold: Left the game with a head injury and is considered short-term.
• Ja’Marco Jones OT, ankle injury, out for season (hurts OL depth).
• OL continues to trend downward, limiting Detroit’s offensive ceiling.

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: vs. Bears (home, dome)
• Week 3: at Ravens
• Week 4: vs. Browns
• Week 5: at Bengals
• Week 6: at Chiefs
• Week 7: vs. Buccaneers
• Week 8: BYE

Fantasy Take: Buy Low on the explosive elements of the Lions offense: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams. Sell David Montgomery.

San Francisco 49ers

Hold Ricky Pearsall

Offensive Overview

• Injuries dominated Week 1 for the 49ers, impacting George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, and Brock Purdy.
• Christian McCaffrey carried the offense as a dual-threat weapon, but the passing game now revolves around Ricky Pearsall moving forward, given all the injuries.
• Expect a slight offensive downgrade if Mac Jones starts Week 2 against the Saints.

Running Backs

• Christian McCaffrey – 22 carries, 69 yards (3.1 YPC), plus nine receptions, 73 yards on 10 targets.
  • Played 76% of snaps (below his typical 90%+), with Brian Robinson mixing in.
  • Three-down workhorse but potential trade-high candidate if you want to cash out before injury risk compounds.
• Brian Robinson – 9 carries, 33 yards, two targets, one reception, 4 yards.
  • Played 24% snaps, functioning as a spell back and occasional short-yardage option.

Wide Receivers

• Ricky Pearsall – Breakout performance: 7 targets, four receptions, 108 yards, 140 air yards (54% share).
  • Led team in routes run (80%) and 23% target rate per route run.
  • Two end-zone targets (just missed scoring) and operated as the only consistent deep threat.
  • Drew defensive flags on two targets.
  • Locked-in 49ers WR1 moving forward, especially with Kittle and Jennings banged up.
• Jauan Jennings – 5 targets, two receptions, 16 yards, 56% route participation, but left with a shoulder injury.
• Russell Gage – 48% route share, primarily slot usage, could see a bigger role if Jennings is out.
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling – Limited role Week 1, but could see more routes (al la cardio) if Jennings misses time.

Tight Ends

• George Kittle – 4 targets, four receptions, 25 yards, 1 TD, but left early with a hamstring injury.
  • Expected to miss three to five weeks and headed to short-term IR.
• Jake Tonges – Stepped in after Kittle’s exit: 3 targets, three receptions, 15 yards, game-winning TD.
  • Likely to handle primary receiving TE duties
  • Target in 2-TE leagues.
• Luke Farrell – Played the most TE snaps, but usage was blocking-heavy, not a fantasy option.

Quarterbacks

• Brock Purdy – Left the game with shoulder and toe injuries, timetable TBD.
  • If inactive, Mac Jones will start Week 2 against the Saints.
  • Stable volume for McCaffrey and Pearsall.

Advanced Receiving Metrics

• Route Participation:
  • Ricky Pearsall: ~80%
  • Jauan Jennings : 56%
  • Russell Gage: 48%
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Limited, cardio role (shocker)
• Target Share:
  • McCaffrey: 10 targets
  • Pearsall: 20%
  • Others ≤15%
• Air Yards:
  • Ricky Pearsall: 140 air yards (54% share)
• Red-Zone Usage:
  • Ricky Pearsall: 2 end-zone targets
  • George Kittle: 1 TD
  • Jake Tonges: 1 TD

Injuries & Notes

• George Kittle: Hamstring, likely out 3–5 weeks
• Jauan Jennings: Shoulder injury, but avoided serious injury.
• Brock Purdy: Shoulder & toe, may miss Week 2

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: at Saints
• Week 3: vs. Cardinals
• Week 4: vs. Jaguars
• Week 5: at Rams
• Week 6: at Buccaneers

Fantasy Take: SLICK RICK. The 49ers’ second-year WR picked up right where he left off in 2024. He emerged as SF’s No.1 WR in Week 1, hauling in 4 catches for 108 yards on seven targets (20% Target share and 140 air yards on four deep targets). He also fell short of scoring on two end-zone targets. With Kittle and Jennings dealing with injuries, Pearsall’s second-year breakout looks like it is cemented in stone.

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Seattle Seahawks

Hold Kenneth Walker/Zach Charbonnet, Add AJ Barner

Offensive Overview

• Seattle’s Week 1 loss showcased a potential split backfield and a massive breakout from Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN).
• Facing the 49ers’ elite defensive line limited both RBs’ efficiency, but Week 1 roles were apparent:
  • Zach Charbonnet dominated rushing and red-zone work.
  • Ken Walker was involved more in the passing game.

Running Backs

• Zach Charbonnet – 12 carries, 47 yards, 1 TD (3.9 YPC), zero targets.
  • Played 58% of snaps, handled four red-zone carries (scored).
  • Led all NFL RBs in Week 1 rushing success rate (66.7%)
  • Looks better than Walker on film, but still stuck in a committee, even if he is the 1A.
• Ken Walker III – 10 carries, 20 yards (2.0 YPC), three targets, three receptions, 4 yards.
  • Played 40% snaps, more involved as a receiver.
  • Still earned two red-zone carries, so the role isn’t dead.
  • Coming off an offseason injury, usage could ramp up.
  • Don’t want to say that this is unequivocally Charbs’ backfield now, but it sure looks that way after Week 1.
  • I would be looking to hold both guys for now to see if the usage carries over into Week 2, or if this was a case of them easing Walker back in after his long layoff.
  • After all, if Charbonnet was RB1, why not just start him then?

Wide Receivers

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) – Monster performance: 13 targets, nine receptions, 124 yards.
  • Played a full-time role, commanded absurd usage:
    • 56% Target share
    • 62% target per route run rate
    • 91% air-yard share (170 air yards)
    • Lined up both inside and outside, proving true WR1 ability.
    • Locked-in alpha in Seattle’s passing game.

• Cooper Kupp – Quiet: 3 targets, two receptions, 15 yards.
  • Played full-time but continues to fade from fantasy relevance.
• Other WRs: Minimal usage; JSN dominated passing volume.

Tight Ends

• AJ Barner – Primary TE: 2 targets, one catch, 0 yards, 72% route participation.
  • Role is solid but has a low ceiling unless TDs come his way
  • Deep-League Stash
• Elijah Arroyo – Limited: 5 routes, 20% route participation, not fantasy-relevant. Can be dropped.

Advanced Metrics

• Snap Share:
  • Zach Charbonnet: 58%
  • Ken Walker: 40%
• Route Participation:
  • JSN: 84%
  • Cooper Kupp: Full-time
  • AJ Barner: 72%
• Target Share:
  • JSN: 56%
  • Everyone else is ≤10%.
• Air Yards:
  • JSN: 170 air yards (91% share).
  • Seattle’s entire passing game was entirely around JSN.
• Red-Zone Usage:
  • Zach Charbonnet: 4 carries (TD)
  • Ken Walker: 2 carries
  • Seahawks WRs/TEs: 0 red-zone targets

First-Half vs. Second-Half Splits

• First Half: Charbonnet dominated early work (9 carries, 34 yards), and Walker had only four carries.
• Second Half: Walker became more involved, especially in the passing game.
• Usage suggests Seahawks might have eased Walker in Week 1 due to offseason missed time.

Injuries & Notes

• Nick Emanwori (S): High-ankle sprain, out multiple weeks.
• No major offensive injuries; expect continuity heading into Week 2.

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: at Steelers
• Week 3: vs Saints
• Week 4: at Cardinals
• Week 5: vs Buccaneers

Fantasy Take: Give the Seahawks backfield one more week before drawing cement conclusions.

Tennessee Titans

Buy Calvin Ridley

Offensive Overview

• New Titans offense under Brian Callahan struggled against Denver’s defense, but volume funneled clearly toward Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, and rookie Elic Ayomanor.
• Cam Ward looked solid despite poor play-calling and constant pressure; his aggressiveness bodes well for future fantasy upside.

Running Backs

• Tony Pollard – 18 carries, 60 yards (3.3 YPC), one reception, 29 yards. Fumbled in Broncos’ territory.
  • Played 89% of snaps: elite workhorse role.
  • Handled all three red-zone carries but didn’t score.
  • Locked in as an RB1/2 until Tyjae Spears returns.
• Julius Chestnut – 2 carries, 2 yards, two red-zone carries, but minimal usage overall. Not fantasy-relevant.

Wide Receivers

• Calvin Ridley – 8 targets, four receptions, 27 yards, matched up against Patrick Surtain II.
  • 95% snap share, 90% route participation, 28% Target share.
  • Better matchups ahead: prime buy-low candidate.
• Elic Ayomanor (rookie) – 7 targets, two receptions, 13 yards, plus another negated by a penalty.
  • Played 79% of snaps, 73% route participation, led team in air yards (129, 48% share).
  • Usage + role suggest Tank Dell-type breakout potential attached to a rookie QB.
• Tyler Lockett – 50% snaps, 71% route participation, but zero impact (zero catches, zero fantasy relevance).
• Van Jefferson – Played 12% snaps, zero targets, buried on depth chart.

Tight Ends

• Chigoziem Okonkwo – 4 targets, three receptions, 19 yards, played 88% snaps.
  • 76% route participation: strong usage metrics for a TE.
  • Prime streaming option moving forward.
• Gunnar Helm – 2 targets, one catch, 16 yards, limited role.

Quarterback

• Cam Ward – Rookie QB looked composed despite a difficult matchup vs. Denver
  • Aggressive throwing tendencies boost Ridley and Ayomanor long-term.
  • Needs OL stability (see injuries below) and better playcalling to unlock higher ceiling.

Advanced Receiving Metrics

• Route Participation:
  • Calvin Ridley: 90%
  • Elic Ayomanor: 73%
  • Tyler Lockett: 71%
  • Chig Okonkwo: 76%
• Target Share:
  • Calvin Ridley: 28%
  • Elic Ayomanor: 20%
  • Others ≤15%
• Air Yards:
  • Elic Ayomanor: 129 (48% share)
  • Highest among all Titans pass catchers.
• Red-Zone Usage:
  • Tony Pollard: 3 carries
  • Julius Chestnut: 2 carries
  • Titans WRs/TEs : 0 red-zone targets (lack of RZ opportunities).

Injuries & Notes

• JC Latham: OT, left with an injury, status TBD.
  • Immediate concern for pass protection vs. Rams’ Week 2 defensive front.
  • After his injury, Ward took back-to-back sacks.
• Tyjae Spears: Out for Week 1, with no update yet on return.

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: vs. Rams
• Week 3: vs. Colts
• Week 4: at Texans
• Week 5: at Cardinals
• Week 6: at the Raiders

Fantasy Take: The prophecy after Week 1. Buy Calvin Ridley.

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Denver Broncos

Sell J.K. Dobbins

Offensive Overview

• Disappointing offensive showing overall.
• Backfield usage was messy (multiple RBs rotating), and the passing game was concentrated on Courtland Sutton with promising flashes from Troy Franklin.

Running Backs

• J.K. Dobbins – Starter and volume leader: 16 carries, 63 yards (3.9 YPC), one red-zone TD.
  • 53% snap share (40 snaps).
  • However, the rushing success rate was just 31%, ranking 28th out of 39 qualifying RBs (underwhelming).
  • Sell-high angle: early-season production + injury history + crowding behind him
• RJ Harvey – Explosive change-up back: 6 carries, 70 yards (11.7 YPC), including a 50-yard run.
  • 29% snaps (22), no red-zone role yet.
  • Arrow pointing up as a talented rookie RB; potential role growth under Sean Payton.
• Tyler Badie – Surprise passing-down usage: 6 targets (more than Dobbins + Harvey combined).
  • Indicates designed involvement in the air game; caps Dobbins’ receiving upside.
• Jaleel McLaughlin – Inactive (RB3 usage effectively filled by Badie).

Red-Zone Usage (RBs):

• Dobbins: 3 carries, 20 yards, TD
• Harvey: 0 red-zone carries

Wide Receivers

• Courtland Sutton – Clear alpha: 9 targets, six receptions, 61 yards, 1 TD.
  • Usage supports fantasy WR2 status moving forward.
• Troy Franklin – Immediate impact: 6 targets, four receptions, 44 yards.
  • Led TEAM in air yards (120; 43% share) and posted a higher TPRR (25%) than Sutton.
  • Functionally operating in the “downfield” role, many hoped would be Marvin Mims (insert sad trombone sound).
• Marvin Mims – 3 targets, 3-for-12, ~53% snaps, ~50% routes.
  • Firmly the WR3 right now; the role didn’t expand from preseason.

Tight Ends

• Evan  Engram – 4 targets, three receptions, 21 yards, left with a calf injury.
  • 33% TPRR when out there, but limited snaps and durability concerns.
  • If he misses time, expect classic tight end committee (Lucas Krull, Adam Trautman).
• Depth: TE by committee feel even when Engram plays; hard to trust for weekly fantasy.

Advanced Usage & Splits

• First-half carries: Dobbins 4, Harvey 3, early split, Dobbins took more work after halftime.
• Backfield receiving: Badie’s six first-half targets were intentional: real passing-down role.
• Routes / Participation (WRs):
  • Sutton: full-time
  • Franklin: strong participation; clear WR2 usage
  • Mims : ~50% routes; lagging behind
• Air Yards:
  • Troy Franklin: 120 (43% share)
  • Sutton second; others minimal

Red-Zone Notes

• Sutton and Trent Sherfield each saw one red-zone target.
• RB touchdowns funneled to Dobbins; Harvey was unused near the goal line (for now).

Injuries & Notes

• Evan Engram– Calf (older player with injury history; concerning).
• Philosophical note: Sean Payton’s multi-RB rotation is alive and well.

Fantasy Take: If there’s a back to buy, it’s RJ Harvey. If there’s a back to sell, it’s J.K. Dobbins after a solid box score.

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: at Colts
• Week 3: at Chargers
• Week 4: vs. Bengals
• Week 5: at Eagles

New York Giants

Sell Tyrone Tracy

Offensive Overview

• Ugly offensive showing vs. Washington; zero rushing lanes and erratic QB play.
• Russell Wilson led the team in rushing (8 carries, 44 yards) — a concerning sign for the RB room.
• Rookie QB Jackson Dart could take over as early as this week, even if struggles continue.

Running Backs

• Tyrone Tracy – Starter: 10 carries, 24 yards (2.4 YPC), five targets, two receptions, 11 yards, one close-to-fumble play (incomplete pass).
  • Played 74% snaps but 30% rushing success rate (30th of 35 RBs in Week 1): very inefficient.
  • No red-zone carries; ball security concerns + inefficiency = risky fantasy hold.
  • Volume is there now, but the role is fragile [Sell].
• Devin Singletary – 3 carries, 9 yards (15% snaps).
• Cam Skattebo (rookie) – 2 carries, -3 yards, two targets, two receptions, 12 yards.
  • Lone red-zone carry (stuffed, -1 yard).
  • It could eat into Tracy’s role later if the Giants look to alternatives.

Wide Receivers

• Malik Nabers – 12 targets, five receptions, 71 yards, 131 air yards.
  • 27% Target share, 27% TPRR, two red-zone targets (caught one).
  • Volume alpha regardless of QB; production tied to QB (woof).
• Wan’Dale Robinson – 8 targets, six receptions, 55 yards, 22% Target share.
  • Encouraging usage shift: slightly deeper aDOT vs. last season.
  • Doesn’t show up in the box score because penalties negated both his deep targets (3 total deep targets).
  • WR3/flex option in PPR formats.
• Darius Slayton – 97% snaps, one target, zero catches: Cardio King.
  • Unusable while Nabers & Wan’Dale dominate volume

Tight Ends

• Theo Johnson – 3 targets, one reception, 5 yards, 78% snaps.
  • Full-time TE1, but a low-volume/bad offense role caps the ceiling.

Advanced Usage & Metrics

• Snap Share:
  • Tyrone Tracy: 74%
  • Devin Singletary: 15%
  • Cam Skattebo: 12%
• Target Share:
  • Malik Nabers: 27%
  • Wan’Dale Robinson: 22%
  • No other player > 9%.
• Air Yards:
  • Nabers: 131 (dominant share)
  • Everyone else is negligible.
• Red-Zone Usage:
  • Malik Nabers: 2 targets (caught one) – had a TD but got knocked away.
  • Wan’Dale Robinson: 1 target
  • Cam Skattebo: 1 carry (stuffed)
  • Tyrone Tracy: 0 red-zone carries, zero red-zone targets

Quarterback Situation

• Russell Wilson: Mobility still potentially there (44 rushing yards), but passing inefficiency continues.
• Jaxson Dart: Could see first NFL start Week 5 vs. Saints (my best guess) but monitor QB transition closely. Don’t think Brian Daboll will want to put him out there until the OL is at its highest point.

Injuries & Notes

• Andrew Thomas (OT) – DNP in Week 1; major reason the Giants’ OL collapsed.
• If Thomas remains out, the Giants’ RB ceilings stay capped.
• Offensive line play + QB volatility = volume-driven fantasy assets only.

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: at Cowboys
• Week 3: vs. Chiefs
• Week 4: vs. Chargers
• Week 5: at Saints (possible Jackson Dart debut)
• Weeks 6–8: Eagles twice in 3 weeks, Broncos in between.

Fantasy Take: Sell Tyrone Tracy. Tracy got the ideal snap share for the Giants in Week 1 (74%) but made nothing of his opportunities, totaling just 35 scoreless yards on 12 touches. He lost a red zone attempt to rookie Cam Skattebo and matched the rookie in receiving production despite three more targets (5 vs 2). He also had a ball security issue yet again (it was eventually ruled incomplete). I want out of the Tracy business before his value completely bottoms out.

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Washington Commanders

Buy Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Sell Deebo Samuel

Running Backs

• Croskey Merritt – Breakout debut: 10 carries, 82 yards (8.2 YPC), 1 TD, long 42-yarder.
  • With Chris Rodriguez Jr. inactive, Merritt functioned as the early-down “A back.”
  • 33% snap share (as a 7th-round rookie) behind Austin Ekeler, but role looks poised to grow.
  • Red zone: 2 carries for 12 yards, scored; double-digit TD upside in this offense for season-long perspective.
  • The crowd was chanting: BILL, BILL, BILL.
  • He is Brian Robinson. With Juice.
• Austin Ekeler – Starter/change-up: 6 carries, 26 yards (4.3 YPC); 3 targets, 3–31.
  • 47% snap share; still involved but trending toward 1-B alongside Merritt.
• Jeremy McNichols – 4 carries, 25 yards; 19% snaps. Depth usage only as a backup for Ekeler.

Backfield view: Clear 1A/1B of Ekeler–Merritt; Rodriguez inactive strengthens Merritt’s path.

Wide Receivers

• Deebo Samuel – Commanders slot hammer in Kliff Kingsbury’s debut:
  • 10 targets: 7 receptions, 77 yards, plus one rush for 19 yards and a TD (another carry wiped away on a penalty).
  • 78% routes, 76% slot rate: offense built around him early.
  • Monster Week 1 but long injury history : prime Sell-High/Trade candidate.
• Terry McLaurin – Easing back after holdout: 4 targets, 2–27, but 79% snaps (full-time).
  • Led team in air yards (77; 29% share); usage should tick up.
  • Buy-Low / Trade Target
  • Deebo for Terry straight up? Who says no?
• Noah Brown – 3 targets, 2–27, 47% snaps. WR3/rotational.
• Luke McCaffrey, Jaylin Lane, Chris Moore – Limited involvement.

Tight Ends

• Zach Ertz – 5 targets (2nd on team) : 3–26 and a TD.
  • ~64% snaps, ~70% routes; primary receiving TE. Also, multiple drops.
• John Bates – Significant snap share but more blocking-leaning.

Advanced Usage

• Routes run:
  • McLaurin 84%
  • Deebo 78%
  • Ertz 70%
  • Noah Brown 51%.
• Target share:
  • Deebo 33% (clear WR1 usage).
• Air yards:
  • McLaurin: 77 (team-high; 29% share). Daniels missed him deep.
• Slot rate:
  • Deebo: 76%, featured as a full-time slot.
• Red-Zone Notes
  • Deebo Samuel – rushing TD.
  • Zach Ertz – TD on his lone red-zone target.
  • Noah Brown – 1 red-zone target (no score).
  • Croskey Merritt – 2 red-zone carries (12 yards), TD
  • Austin Ekeler – 2 red-zone carries.

Injuries & Notes

• Austin Ekeler – Limited (shoulder) on report, but played.
• Noah Brown – Managing a knee issue, still active.
• OL Sam Cosmi trending toward a return soon: boost for run/pass efficiency.
• Team is healthy overall heading into a short week on Thursday Night Football.

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: at Packers (TNF)
• Week 3: vs. Raiders
• Week 4: at Falcons
• Week 5: at Chargers

Fantasy Take: Deebo Samuel operated as the Commanders’ slot hammer in Kliff Kingsbury’s debut: He finished Week 1 with 10 targets, seven receptions, and 77 yards, plus one rush for 19 yards and a TD. 78% routes and 76% slot rate in an offensive game plan built around him early. Deebo had a monster Week 1, but he has a long injury history, making him a prime Sell-High candidate, especially as Terry McLaurin gets fully back up to speed off his long training camp holdout.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Sell Kenneth Gainwell, Hold/Buy Kaleb Johnson

Offensive Overview

• The run game sputtered; no back separated.
• Passing game spread out with DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin leading usage; TE room is a true committee.

Running Backs

• Jaylen Warren – 11 carries, 37 yards (3.4 YPC); 2 targets, 2–22, TD.
  • 45% snaps (25) but handled the valuable touches (see red zone).
  • Still the back to hold in PPR.
  • Limited to just nine rushing yards in the first half.
• Kenneth Gainwell – 7 carries, 19 yards; 4 targets, 3–4.
  • 54% snaps (30) led the backfield, but the offense gained nothing on the ground.
  • Usage feels fragile if they seek a spark from another back on the roster.
• Kaleb Johnson (rookie) – 1 carry, –2 yards; 2 snaps (4%).
  • Pure stash bet on talent/fit if they shake up the rotation.
  • Hold

Wide Receivers

• DK Metcalf – 7 targets, 4–83; low aDOT, heavy schemed touches (only ~26 air yards, ~3.7 aDOT).
  • 23% Target share; looked good after the catch, but volume wasn’t overwhelmingly dominant.
  • Viable sell-high if the market assumes ceiling tied to a big Week 1 from Rodgers.
  • Sell High
• Calvin Austin – 6 targets, 4–70, TD; ~14.3 aDOT (true downfield role).
  • Full-time usage (~80% snaps).
• Roman Wilson – 10 snaps (18%); non-factor for now.
• Ben Skowronek – 1–22, TD.

Tight Ends

• Jonnu Smith – 6 targets, 5–15, TD; ~53% routes.
• Pat Freiermuth – 3 targets, 3–28; ~41% routes.
• Split usage caps both; classic whack-a-mole.
• Avoid both

Advanced Usage

• Routes: Metcalf & Austin led; Jonnu ~53%, Freiermuth ~41%.
• Target Share: Metcalf 23%; Austin & Jonnu with six targets each.
• Role shift: Team schemed touches for Metcalf near LOS; Austin used more downfield.

Red-Zone Usage

• Jaylen Warren – 4 carries for 12 yards in RZ + receiving TD: most trusted near the goal line.
• Calvin Austin – TD in red zone.
• Jonnu Smith – TD in red zone.
• Metcalf – No TD; usage encouraging but not featured inside the 20.

Defense / Context

• Secondary banged up: Joey Porter Jr., DeShon Elliott hurt; DL already thin (others out).
• The Steelers may be a defense to target through the air until they are healthier.

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: vs. Seahawks (home)
• Week 3: at Patriots
• Week 4: vs. Vikings (international site)
• Week 5: BYE

Fantasy Take: Classic Arthur Smith. Draft a rookie RB perfectly suited for your scheme just to play Kenneth Gainwell as your lead back. But based on how ineffective the Steelers’ run game was in Week 1 (2.7 yards per rush), I think the Steelers have to find a way to get Kaleb Johnson more involved moving forward. Buy low or scoop him up off waivers if he gets dropped this week.

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New York Jets

Buy Breece Hall

Offensive Overview

• Stunning offensive eruption. Breece Hall looked fully back and electric; Justin Fields added two rushing TDs.
• The passing game flowed through Garrett Wilson with minimal secondary target competition.

Running Backs

• Breece Hall – 19 carries, 107 yards (5.6 YPC); 4 targets, 2–38.
  • 58% snaps (committee on paper, but clear best player).
  • Explosive on film and metrics; role doesn’t need 70%+ to deliver RB1 lines. [Hold / Buy-High-if-possible]
• Braelon Allen – 6 carries, 9 yards, 1 TD; 31% snaps. Led RBs in red-zone rushes (3) and scored; otherwise inefficient.
• Isaiah Davis – 12% snaps, one red-zone carry; change-of-pace only.

Red-Zone Usage (RBs):

• Braelon Allen 3 (TD) > Hall 2 (no TD) > Davis 1.

Quarterback

• Justin Fields – 12 rushes, 48 yards, 2 TDs.
  • Dual-threat gravity opened lanes for Hall; occasional volatility expected, but a fantasy-friendly environment.

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

• Garrett Wilson – Alpha day: 9 targets: 7–95–1, 100% snaps, ~92%+ routes.
  • Dominated usage: 52% air-yard share, 36% Target share, 33% TPRR.
  • Moved around (roughly 50/50 slot vs. outside), making coverage tilts tough.
  • Hold
• Josh Reynolds – 3 targets, 2–18; full-time WR2 by usage but low volume
• Tyler Johnson – 2–31 on two targets; rotational [Monitor].
• Mason Taylor (rookie TE) – ~80% snaps, ~80% routes, but only one target. Usage is excellent; production should follow in future weeks.
• Jeremy Ruckert – 2 targets (out-targeted Taylor despite fewer snaps); TE room still favors Taylor’s playing time.

Advanced Usage

• First-half carries: Hall 9, no other RB had more than 4: game plan centered on Hall early.
• Target tree: Wilson far ahead; nobody else had more than three targets.
• Red zone (receiving): No RZ targets for Wilson (TD came from outside).

Injuries & Context

• OL note: Alijah Vera-Tucker’s injury didn’t derail the run game in this one.
• Week 1 opponent (Steelers) was banged up in the secondary, but the Jets still looked legitimately sharp.

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: vs. Bills
• Week 3: vs. Buccaneers
• Week 4: at Dolphins
• Week 5: vs. Cowboys
• Week 6: vs. Broncos
• Then Panthers, Bengals, before the BYE — overall favorable slate for skill players.

Fantasy Take: Taking the L on selling Jets before Week 1. I apologize for giving that bad recommendation last week on Featured Pros. I had a completely incorrect read on the Steelers. I thought the advantage was that the Steelers knew Fields. When in reality, Fields knew the Steelers better defensively than they knew what the Jets were going to do on offense.” But if you still have Jets, I think you should hold or even look to buy high on someone like Breece Hall. I like the schedule coming up.

Arizona Cardinals

Add/Buy Trey Benson, Sell James Conner, Buy Marvin Harrison Jr.

Offensive Overview

• Backfield shifted from a true bell cow toward a 1A/1B: James Conner still led usage, but Trey Benson brought the juice and chunk gains.
• Target tree remains concentrated: Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. dominate routes/looks.

Running Backs

• James Conner – 12 carries, 39 yards (3.3 YPC); 4 targets, 4–5, TD.
  • ~65% snaps, 16 touches.
  • Box score saved by receiving TD; rushing efficiency lagged in a plus matchup.
  • Age/volume profile + Benson’s emergence: [Sell-High window].
  • The Carolina matchup on deck is juicy for Week 2, but a Benson breakout might tank Conner’s stock.
• Trey Benson – 8 carries, 69 yards (8.6 YPC) with a 52-yard burst; ~33% snaps, nine touches.
  • Also handled two red-zone carries (no TD).
  • Explosive second-year back whose role is already growing. [Add/Buy]
  • 33% snap share matched season-high from Week 2 of his rookie season (blow-out victory).

Receivers & Tight Ends

• Marvin Harrison Jr. – 6 targets : 5–71–1 (red-zone TD).
  • ~89% routes, ~50% air-yard share, primary downfield/TD threat.
  • Looks more featured than as a rookie. [Buy]
  • Looks more physical (picked up DPI call)
  • Kyler also missed Marvin Harrison Jr. on what could have been a 95-yard touchdown.
• Trey McBride – 9 targets: 6–61; team-high 28% Target share, ~89% routes.
• Still allergic to TDs, but elite TE usage remains.
• Michael Wilson – 4 targets, ancillary piece behind MHJ/McBride.

Advanced Usage

• Routes
  • Harrison 89%
  • McBride ~89%
  • Both are every-down options.
• Air Yards
  • Harrison ~50% share (team-leading).
• Red Zone:
  • Conner : 2 carries + receiving TD
  • Benson : 2 carries (no score)

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: vs. Panthers (home)
• Week 3: at 49ers
• Week 4: vs. Seahawks
• Week 5: vs. Titans
• Week 6: at Colts
• Week 7: vs. Packers
• Week 8: BYE

Fantasy Take: Sell James Conner. The Cardinals’ backfield shifted from a true bell cow toward a 1A/1B in Week 1. James Conner still led usage, but Trey Benson brought the juice and chunk gains. Conner finished with 12 carries for 39 yards (3.3 YPC); 4 targets, 4-5, and a TD. Played 65% snaps with 16 touches. The box score was saved by his receiving TD, as the rushing efficiency lagged in a plus matchup. Age/volume profile + Benson’s emergence makes Conner a sell-high candidate (although after Week 2, it might also be advised given the matchup versus Carolina).

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New Orleans Saints

Buy/Add Juwan Johnson, Sell Alvin Kamara

Offensive Overview

• Fast pace under OC Kellen Moore (≈75 plays) with Spencer Rattler attempting 46 passes.
• Volume supported multiple double-digit target earners, but efficiency lagged outside of the TE room.

Running Backs

• Alvin Kamara — 11 carries, 45 yards, 1 rushing TD; 2 targets (quiet as a receiver).
  • ~79% snaps, 2 red-zone rushes: goal-line role intact.
  • Concern: muted targets with a mobile QB who scrambles vs. checking down. [Shop Kamara]
• Kendre Miller — 5 carries, 24 yards. Looked fantastic.
• Devin Neal (rookie) — 2 carries, 9 yards.

Receivers & Tight Ends

• Juwan Johnson — 11 targets: 8–76; played ~99% snaps, ran routes on ~80% of dropbacks.
  • Slot-heavy usage in Moore’s scheme; ~28% TPRR, ~24% Target share, two red-zone targets.
  • Clear connection with Rattler dating to last year’s stretch.
  • Priority Add — TE Waiver #1
  • Was balling out all game and fell just short of a red-zone TD.
• Chris Olave — 13 targets: 7–54; ~26% Target share, end-zone look but limited gains.
  • Volume WR2 profile; ceiling capped if aDOT/TDs don’t spike.
  • Nearly got hurt taking a hospital ball from Spencer Rattler.
• Rashid Shaheed — 9 targets: 6–33; ~84% routes, end-zone target.
  • PPR-oriented floor play.
  • Non-existent in the first half, he saw all his usage in the second half.
• Brandin Cooks — ~76% snaps, ~74% routes; ancillary.

Advanced Usage

• Routes:
  • Shaheed ~84%
  • Olave ~80%
  • Juwan ~80%
  • Cooks ~74%.
  • Kamara ran routes on ~59% of dropbacks (targets didn’t follow in Week 1).
  • Slot funnel: Juwan functioned as the primary slot option — a historically productive role in Moore’s offenses. [Buy].
• Red-Zone Notes
  • Kamara: 2 red-zone rushes (TD).
  • Juwan Johnson: 2 red-zone targets (no TD…yet).
  • Olave & Shaheed: end-zone targets but no scores.

Injuries & Context

• Julian Blackmon (S) left; Chase Young DNP (defense).
• Taliese Fuaga (OT) banged up; Trevor Penning already out: OL health worth monitoring for pass/run efficiency.

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: vs 49ers (potentially vs. a backup QB)
• Week 3: at Seahawks
• Week 4: at Bills
• Week 5: vs Giants
• Week 6: vs Patriots

Fantasy Take: It’s Juwan Johnson’s big slot SZN.

Carolina Panthers

Buy Tetairoa McMillan

Offensive Overview

• Clear workhorse approach with Chuba Hubbard; backups were used sparingly.
• Rookie Tetairoa McMillan already looks like the passing-game focal point despite a modest box score.
• Sloppy WR depth play (drops, miscues on the boundary) funneled opportunity to McMillan and RB checkdowns.

Running Backs

• Chuba Hubbard — 16 carries, 57 yards (3.6 YPC); 5 targets, 3–32, receiving TD.
  • 67% snaps; no other RB touched the ball in the first half.
  • Three red-zone rushes (no TD on the ground); usage screams bell cow.
• Rico Dowdle — 3 carries, 12 yards; 3 targets, 2–4; 34% snaps. Handcuff usage.
• Trevor Etienne (rookie) — 1 carry, 4 yards, ~3% snaps. Developmental only.

Receivers & Tight Ends

• Tetairoa McMillan (rookie) — 9 targets: 5–68.
  • Led team in routes, ~100+ air yards, 40% air-yard share, 23% Target share, 23% TPRR.
  • Multiple near-miss chunk plays; Bryce just missed him on a potential long TD. [Buy].
• Xavier Legette — 7 targets: 3–10; one red-zone target (no score). Sloppy execution, but the role is there.
• Hunter Renfrow — 6 targets: 2–11; mistakes capped output.
• Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE, rookie) — 3 targets: 2–27; ~63% route rate led TEs.
  • Stream-able vs. ARI this week, but Tommy Tremble’s involvement lowers the ceiling.
• Tommy Tremble (TE) — 1 target: 1–2; rotation dampens TE ceiling.

Advanced Usage

• Target/air-yard concentration on McMillan; WR depth (Legette/Renfrow) inefficient: likely continued funnel.
• Hubbard saw unusual passing involvement (5 targets) relative to last year : added PPR floor.
• Red Zone: Legette (1 target), Hubbard (3 rushes) + receiving TD.

Injuries & Context

• DL: another defensive tackle injury (depth thinning).
• OL: Ikem Ekwonu was out; his return should stabilize protection/run lanes for Carolina.
• The week featured a weather delay; the offense never fully settled, and Bryce Young left plays on the field.

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: at Cardinals (dome)
• Week 3: vs Falcons
• Week 4: at Patriots
• Week 5: vs Dolphins
• Week 6: vs Cowboys

Fantasy Take: Buy T-Mac

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Jacksonville Jaguars

Hold Travis Etienne, Add/Buy Bhayshul Tuten

Offensive Overview

• Travis Etienne exploded as the engine of the offense; committee pieces were ancillary.
• Liam Coen sprinkled in end-arounds/WR rushes (Brian Thomas Jr. TD, Dyami Brown carries).
• Game flow + weather delay kept things a bit odd, but roles were clear.

Running Backs

• Travis Etienne — 16 carries, 143 yards (8.9 YPC), long 71; 4 red-zone rushes.
  • ~61% snaps; also led the backfield in the first half (7 for 99).
  • Set-and-forget RB1 vs. CIN; consider sell-high later if schedule bites (SF, KC, SEA coming).
• LeQuint Allen (rookie) — passing-down profile; ~14% snaps.
  • Direct ETN relief in the receiving role. Saw snaps on the first two drives in that capacity on passing downs.
• Bhayshul Tuten (rookie) — light usage (~6% snaps), but actually saw two carries in 1H and two red-zone attempts overall.
  • Projects into the vacated Bigsby role.
• Tank Bigsby — traded to PHI postgame.
  • Becomes a Saquon Barkley handcuff/special teams piece; droppable in shallower formats till we get Eagles’ handcuff sorted out. But worth keeping in deeper ones as we see how Philly deploys the backfield with Bigsby.

Receivers & Tight Ends

• Travis Hunter (rookie) — 8 targets: 6–33, heavy screen/slot usage.
  • ~64% snaps, ~76% slot rate, ~32% TPRR; led team in targets (also a 1H leader).
  • Offense designed to feed him in space.
  • Very few defensive snaps.
• Brian Thomas Jr. — 7 targets: 1–11, plus 9-yard rushing TD. Some drops. ~86% snaps, ~38% air-yard share (83 AY): deep-shot role intact; chemistry with TLaw should normalize in future weeks.
• Dyami Brown — 3–52 on four targets + 2 rushes for 6; ~71% snaps. Some gadget type usage.
• Brenton Strange (TE) — early-script involvement; ~79% snaps, ~60% routes; usable streamer.
• Hunter Long (TE) — 1 catch, 6 yards (RZ TD); role is TD-or-bust.

Advanced Usage

• Routes:
  • Thomas #1, Brown #2, Hunter #3 (all ≥76% of dropbacks)
  • Strange ~60% of dropbacks.
• Air Yards:
  • Thomas led (~38% share).
• Slot:
  • Hunter ~76%; manufactured touches match his profile.
• Red-Zone Notes
  • Etienne: 4 RZ rushes.
  • Tuten: 2 RZ rushes.
  • Brian Thomas Jr.: rushing TD.
  • Travis Hunter: 1 RZ target (caught, no TD).

Injuries & Context

• Anton Harrison (OT) left with a back issue; otherwise, the skill group is relatively healthy.

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: at Bengals
• Week 3: vs Texans
• Week 4: at 49ers
• Week 5: vs Chiefs
• Week 6: vs Seahawks
• After CIN, slate tightens — a natural window to explore Etienne sell-high if you’re RB-rich.

Fantasy Take: Keep Bhayshul Tuten stashed and hold Travis Etienne.

New England Patriots

Buy TreyVeon Henderson, Add Kayshon Boutte

Offensive Overview

• Sloppy, weather-affected game with limited explosive plays.
• Backfield snaps favored Rhamondre Stevenson (≈65%), but Trayvon Henderson was more efficient and led touches (11 vs. 9) thanks to passing-game usage.

Running Backs

• TreyVeon Henderson — 5 carries, 27 yards (5.4 YPC); 6 targets: 6–24; 17 routes, ~35% snaps.
  • Most dynamic Pats playmaker right now; adds a PPR floor and yards-after-catch juice. [Buy].
• Rhamondre Stevenson — 7 carries, 15 yards; 3 targets: 2–12; short-yardage failures hurt the box score.
  • Still led snaps but didn’t separate.

Receivers & Tight Ends

• Kayshon Boutte — 8 targets: 6–103; operated as the de facto WR1.
  • Routes leader, 138 air yards (≈38% share), three deep targets, one end-zone target.
  • Chemistry with Maye is real. [Add]
  • Potential 3^rd-year breakout candidate
• Hunter Henry — 8 targets: 4–66; steady middle-field usage.
  • Role and volume make him a weekly/streaming fringe TE1.
• Stefon Diggs — 7 targets: 6–57; solid hands, limited YAC.
  • Reliable WR2/3 floor while acclimating. He’s fine.
• Demario Douglas — 2 for (−2) on three targets but scored a TD; 3 red-zone targets, 2 end-zone looks (primary RZ option).
  • Box-score saved by TD; volatile week to week.
• Austin Hooper — 1 red-zone target (no TD). [Bench]
• Kyle Williams — 1–12 late. Needs to usurp Boutte.

Advanced Usage

• Routes run order:
  • Boutte > Henry > Douglas > Diggs.
• Target share:
  • Flat at the top (Boutte & Henry ≈18%).
• TPRR:
  • Henry ≈22%; Henderson ~35% on limited routes: strong per-route earning.
• Air yards:
  • Boutte is a clear team leader (138 AY, three deep targets).
• Red-Zone / End-Zone
  • Douglas: 3 RZ targets, 2 EZ targets, scored once.
  • Boutte: 1 EZ target.
  • Hooper: 1 RZ target (no TD).
  • RB RZ usage muted overall this week; short-yardage issues persisted.

Injuries & Context

• CB Christian Gonzalez, DNP; secondary looked vulnerable. Until he’s back, Pats’ defense is targetable via the pass (specifically downfield).

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: at Dolphins
• Week 3: vs Steelers
• Week 4: vs Panthers
• Week 5: at Bills
• Week 6: vs Saints

Fantasy Take: Buy TreyVeon Henderson, Add Kayshon Boutte

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Las Vegas Raiders

Buy Ashton Jeanty

Offensive Overview

• Patriots sold out vs. the run; lanes were scarce.
• Despite the efficiency dip, roles were very clear: Ashton Jeanty is the workhorse, Jakobi Meyers the WR1, and Brock Bowers already looks like a weekly difference-maker at tight end despite how many snaps he is playing.

Running Backs

• Ashton Jeanty — 19 carries, 38 yards (2.0 YPC); 2 RZ attempts: 1 TD; 2 targets: 2–2.
  • ~86% snaps (bell cow usage). Efficiency will bounce in softer spots. [Mild Buy].
• Zamir White — 3–8 rushing; minimal role. Handcuff only.

Receivers & Tight Ends

• Jakobi Meyers — 10 targets: 8–97; routes ~92%, Target share ~29%.
  • Forced six missed tackles; heavy slot (~58%) usage; clear alpha WR.
• Brock Bowers — 8 targets: 5–103 (led team in 1H targets with 6); ~51% snaps while managing a minor knee/hip tweak (coach said he could’ve returned).
  • ~35% target rate per route, explosive on limited routes. [Every-week TE1]
• Tre Tucker — 3 targets: 2–54, TD; ~90% snaps, ~87% routes. Speedy field-stretcher attached to real volume.
• Dont’e Thornton — 2–45; ~60% snaps, ~54% routes; ~27% air-yard share (downfield role), but still behind Meyers/Tucker/Bowers in priority.
• Michael Mayer — 4 targets: 4–38; ~63% snaps; 1 RZ target. Role stable even when Bowers is active; TD-or-volume streamer.
• Jack Bech — 1–23 on one target. [Jack Bench]

Advanced Usage Notes

• Routes:
  • Meyers (92%) > Tucker (87%) > Bowers (59%) > Thornton (54%).
• Air Yards:
  • Thornton led share (~27%)
  • Others “north of 70 AY” apiece among top trio (Meyers/Tucker/Bowers).
• Targets:
  • Meyers ~29%
  • Bowers ~23.5% with elite ~35% TPRR.
• Red-Zone / Scoring
  • Jeanty: 2 RZ rushes: 1 TD (goal-line role secure).
  • Mayer: 1 RZ target (no TD).
  • Tre Tucker: long TD from outside the red zone.

Injuries & Context

• Brock Bowers (knee/hip) downplayed; treated as day-to-day. Expect normal usage if active.

Schedule Outlook

• Week 2: vs Chargers
• Week 3: at Commanders
• Week 4: vs Bears
• Week 5: at Colts

Fantasy Take: Buy Ashton Jeanty. Honestly, buy the Raiders offense. Let Geno cook.

Miami Dolphins

Hold/Sell Tyreek Hill

Offensive Overview

• Blowout loss at Indy, but De’Von Achane was a bright spot.
• Late-game snaps mixed in for reserves, which slightly muddies route totals.
• Not enough offensive play volume given how unstoppable the Colts were offensively.
• Things might be unraveling in Miami

Running Backs

• De’Von Achane — 7 carries, 55 yards (7.9 YPC); 4 targets : 3–20–1; ~73% snaps. Looked electric and functioned as the clear RB1. Even in a dud game overall, he delivered via receiving TD.
• Ollie Gordon — 2–4 rushing; ~25% snaps. Minimal role even in a blowout. Not sure I want Gordon even if Achane were to go down in this offensive ecosystem.

Receivers & Tight Ends

• Tyreek Hill — 6 targets: 4–40; ~82 air yards (39% share); ~29% TPRR. He did have a long catch that should have counted, but he was ruled out of bounds.
  • Usage was fine; efficiency cratered with the offense. If you believe the offense could spiral, there’s a case to explore value now. Sell low. Think Hill’s trade market will heat up.
• Jaylen Waddle — 5 targets: 4–30; briefly left with a shoulder issue, then returned.
  • Hold. Pray for a Hill trade and a billion garbage-time targets.
• Malik Washington — 5 targets: 2–20; operated as WR3 and led in routes (inflated by Waddle’s brief exit).
• Tanner Conner — 4 targets: 2–20 at TE.

Advanced Usage Notes

• Backfield:
  • Achane ~73% snaps: featured
  • Gordon ~25%.
• Routes:
  • Washington led this week largely due to Waddle’s in-game pause
  • Expect normal pecking order (Tyreek/Waddle) going forward.
• Air Yards:
  • Tyreek 82 AY (39% share) despite the down game.
• Red Zone:
  • 1 RZ target each for Waddle and Tanner Conner; neither converted.

Injuries

• Jaylen Waddle (shoulder) returned; not a concern right now.
• OL James Daniels (pectoral) is expected to miss time.
• CB Storm Duck (ankle) adds to secondary issues: opposing pass games remain a great target vs. Miami.

Schedule

• Week 2: vs NE
• Week 3: at BUF
• Week 4: vs NYJ
• Week 5: at CAR
• Week 6: vs LAC

Fantasy Take: Look to sell AFTER the Patriots game. Unless you have Waddle. We are going down with the ship.

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Indianapolis Colts

Sell Michael Pittman Jr., Buy Josh Downs, Tyler Warren

Offensive Overview:

• Statement win over Miami.
• Jonathan Taylor handled the meaningful work; DJ Giddens mopped up late with the lead.

Running Backs

• Jonathan Taylor — 18–71 (3.9 YPC); 3–27–0 on three targets; ~71% snaps (sat most of Q4).
  • Clear workhorse; usage was managed smartly in a blowout.
• DJ Giddens — 12–41, most of it in second-half cruise control
  • Locked-in handcuff.

Receivers & Tight Ends

• Michael Pittman Jr. — 6–80–1 on eight targets
  • Daniel Jones looked to him early and often (building off offseason training together).
  • Possible Sell-high (Broncos matchup could funnel away from him in Week 2).
• Tyler Warren — 7–76 on nine targets; also logged a carry in a hybrid role
  • ~73% snaps.
  • Designed touches, YAC chances, and schemed usage scream weekly floor.
  • Alpha.
• Alec Pierce — 1–36 on three targets; led in air yards (66; 33% share) but low volume.
• Josh Downs — 2–12 on three targets; sub-50% snaps as primary slot.
  • Could benefit vs. Denver as the No. 2 with Pittman preoccupied with Surtain.
• Adonai Mitchell — 2–21 on two targets; efficient on limited routes
  • Flashes whenever he’s out there.
  • Deep-league stash.
• JT (as receiver) — 3–27–0 on perfect three targets.

Usage & Advanced Notes

• First half:
  • Only Taylor recorded RB carries
  • Pittman and Warren tied for the team-high targets.
• Routes:
  • Pittman (~85%) > Pierce (~76%) > Downs (~49%)
  • Warren is heavily involved.
• Target share:
  • Warren 31% with a 39% TPRR (bonkers for a TE).
  • He’s BUILT DIFFERENT.
  • Smashed on the opening drive.
  • Honestly, he’s a top-3 tight end rest of season.
  • Quote from the broadcast: The coaches are putting a lot on his plate. Response? Give him even more plates.
  • Also had another catch removed.
• Air yards:
  • Pierce led (66; 33% share).
• Role wrinkle:
  • Warren used as a Taysom-style hybrid (got a rush attempt)
  • Added TD equity.
• Red Zone:
  • Jonathan Taylor: 7 red-zone opportunities (2nd-most of Week 1 by your notes): didn’t score, but role is unquestioned.
  • DJ Giddens: 2 RZ opps, no score.
  • Tyler Warren: 2 RZ targets (1 catch), no TD: positive regression candidate.
  • Alec Pierce: 1 end-zone look (no TD).

Injuries

• CB room took hits (…Charvarius Ward, Jaylon Jones, per your notes). If short-handed vs. Denver, expect points on both sides.

Schedule (Weeks 2–6)

• Week 2: vs DEN
• Week 3: at TEN
• Week 4: at LAR
• Week 5: vs LV
• Week 6: vs ARI

Fantasy Take: Sell High on Michael Pittman Jr. Buy low on Josh Downs in DFS contests. Also buy high on Tyler Warren.

Cleveland Browns

Add Dylan Sampson, Harold Fannin Jr.

Offensive Overview

• High-volume passing day (45 attempts) fueled diverse usage—rookies were heavily featured.

Running Backs

• Dylan Sampson — 12–29 (2.4 YPC); 8–64–0 on eight targets
  • ~43% snaps.
  • Started and was a featured receiver by design.
  • The role of passing-down back looks entrenched regardless of Quinshon Judkins’ status.
• Jerome Ford — 6–8
  • 54% snaps
  • 2 red-zone rushes (no TD).
  • Inefficient and could be the one squeezed when Quinshon Judkins debuts.
• Raheim “Rocket” Sanders — Mixed in, logged early carries, and punched in a goal-line TD.
• Quinshon Judkins — Expected to debut soon per team optimism. Likely to supplant Ford on early downs.

Receivers & Tight Ends

• Jerry Jeudy — 5–66–0 on eight targets
  • Led in air yards (92; 41% share)
  • ~90% routes.
• Cedric Tillman — 5–52–1 on eight targets
  • ~90% routes
  • Strong usage and RZ score.
• Harold Fannin Jr. (Rookie) — 7–63–0 on nine targets
  • ~72% snaps, ~60% routes, 31% TPRR, 20% Target share in debut.
  • Out-targeted Njoku on lower routes.
  • Might just be a total stud.
  • If you don’t need TE right away, just add him for bench upside.
• David Njoku — 3–37–0 on six targets despite a historically soft matchup and 84% snaps / ~79% routes.
  • With Fannin this involved, weekly ceiling caps.
  • Shop in trades.

Usage & Advanced Notes

• Routes:
  • Jeudy & Tillman ~90% each
  • Njoku ~79%
  • Fannin ~60% (very strong for a rookie TE2)
• Targets:
  • Jeudy & Tillman essentially neck-and-neck
  • Fannin led in TPRR (31%).
• RB receiving:
  • Sampson funneled looks (8 targets) and should remain the 2-minute/hurry-up option.
• Red Zone
  • Sampson: 2 RZ rushes + 2 RZ targets (no TD).
  • Rocket Sanders: Goal-line TD.
  • Ford: 2 RZ rushes, no score.
  • Tillman: RZ target: TD.
  • Fannin: RZ target (caught, no TD)

Injuries

• RT Jack Conklin picked up an injury (monitor).
• Team is optimistic Quinshon Judkins will debut Week 2 at BAL

Schedule:

• Week 2: at BAL
• Week 3: vs GB
• Week 4: at DET
• Week 5: vs MIN
• Week 6: at PIT

Fantasy Take: Buy the Browns rookies.

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Cincinnati Bengals

Buy Bengals

Offensive Overview:

• Ugly opener vs. CLE’s defense (classic).
• Volume was there; efficiency wasn’t.
• Expect a rebound. The Bengals always underwhelm early in the season, and when they face the Browns’ defense. Pretend like it didn’t happen.

Backfield

• Chase Brown — 21–43–1 (2.0 YPC); 2–8–0 on three targets; ~75% snaps.
  • True bell cow usage plus RZ monopoly (see below). Efficiency stunk, role did not.

Receivers & Tight Ends

• Ja’Marr Chase — 2–26–0 on 5 targets; ~93% routes
  • 83 AY (48% share), 22% Target share.
  • Usage is fine; it’s a classic Browns-game dud.
• Tee Higgins — 3–33–0 on four targets; ~89% routes.
  • Quiet, but full role.
• Noah Fant — 4–26–1 on five targets; ~50% snaps; ~46% routes; 38% TPRR.
  • Out-routed/produced Gesicki; red-zone payoff. Streamer watch.
• Mike Gesicki — 1–14–0 on three targets; ~31% snaps; ~32% routes; 2 red-zone targets.
  • TD spike weeks are possible, but Fant’s presence hurts.
• Andrei Iosivas — ~71% routes as WR3.
• Drew Sample — ~69% snaps (blocking-heavy).

Advanced/Usage Notes

• Routes:
  • Chase 93%
  • Higgins 89%
  • Iosivas 71%
  • Fant 46% > Gesicki 32%.
• Target shares:
  • Chase 22% (team-high)
  • Fant 22%.
• Air yards:
  • Chase 83 (48% share).
• Red Zone:
  • Chase Brown: 5 opportunities (4 rush, one target) — no other RB used inside the 20.
  • TEs: Gesicki 2 RZ targets (no TD); Fant snagged the TD. TEs involved in the red zone (could hurt Higgins).

Injuries

• G Lucas Patrick (calf): out at least one week; minor OL downgrade.

Schedule 

• Week 2: vs JAX
• Week 3: at MIN
• Week 4: at DEN
• Week 5: vs DET
• Week 6: at GB

Fantasy Take: Buy the Bengals after a Week 1 nosedive.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Hold Emeka Egbuka

Offensive Overview

• Ground game sputtered (OL issues; Tristan Wirfs’ absence felt), but rookie Emeka Egbuka announced himself.
• Bucky Irving owned the backfield usage even if efficiency lagged.

Backfield

• Bucky Irving — 14–37 rush; 4–8–1 on four targets; ~76% snaps.
  • Clear workhorse role plus receiving and red-zone involvement (see below).
• Rachaad White — 2–14 rush; 1–2 rec; ~24% snaps.
  • Sidelined by role and a recent groin issue during the offseason. Honestly, I am cool to drop him.
• Sean Tucker — 1–2 rush. Rotational only.
• Baker Mayfield — 5–39 rush.
  • Superflex note: small Konami boost seems to be carrying over a bit from last season.

Receivers & TE

• Emeka Egbuka — 4–67–2 on six targets; ~93% snaps; led routes.
  • Lined up ~55% wide / 45% slot, 77 AY (25% share), two deep targets.
  • Strong Hold (ascending as an every week starter).
• Mike Evans — 5–51–0 on eight targets; ~83% snaps; 103 AY (34%).
  • Typical Evans profile; downfield usage intact.
  • Locked-and-loaded fantasy WR2.
• Sterling Shepard — 3–39–0 on six targets; ~64% snaps.
  • Slot usage while part of a rotation.
• Cade Otton — 0–0–0 on three targets; ~86% snaps.
  • Routes/snap share there, targets not. TD-or-bust streamer if guys miss time.

Advanced / Usage Notes

• No fixed slot: all receivers rotated inside/outside; Egbuka still led routes.
• First half: Evans topped targets (5); Egbuka scored once in each half.

Red Zone

• RB: Bucky Irving had the only RZ carry (stuffed) and a RZ target TD.
• WR/TE: No recorded RZ targets for the receivers.

Injuries / Status

• No new offensive injuries reported from the game.
• Chris Godwin is eyeing Week 5 for a return to play.

Upcoming Schedule (Weeks 2–5)

• Week 2: at HOU
• Week 3: vs NYJ
• Week 4: vs PH
• Week 5: at SEA

Fantasy Take: Too late to fit Emeka Egbuka for a Hall of Fame jacket? The guy truly does it all from every single WR position. Mayfield loves him. Evans loves him. Prepared more than they have ever typically seen from a rookie.

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Atlanta Falcons

Hold Drake London

Offensive Overview

• Brutal rushing day vs. a stout Bucs front, but Bijan still smashed in PPR (WR-level receiving line).
• Drake London vacuumed targets before a late shoulder scare.

Backfield

• Bijan Robinson — 12–24 rush; 6–100–1 on seven targets; ~83% snaps.
  • Usage gold even when rushing efficiency craters. Worst week-1 success rate aside, the receiving role keeps the floor sky-high.
• Tyler Allgeier — 10–24 rush; ~25% snaps; 0 targets.
  • Pure change-of-pace/short-yardage; touches when on the field but no passing work.

Receivers & TE

• Drake London — 8–55–0 on 15 targets; ~77% snaps.
  • Alpha usage (36% Target share; 2 end-zone looks; >100 air yards).
  • Left late with a shoulder sprain; monitor, but the expectation is no missed time.
• Kyle Pitts — 7–59–0 on eight targets; ~78% snaps.
  • Healthy involvement (≈19% target, 21% TPRR).
  • Still want more RZ looks.
• Casey Washington — 3–33 on six targets; led routes (~94%).
  • Functioned as the Darnell Mooney stand-in.
  • “Casey Washington has the best hands he has seen on the team.” -Zac Robinson via the game broadcast.
• Ray-Ray McCloud — 3–51 on five targets.
  • Ancillary slot WR.

Advanced / Usage Notes

• Routes:
  • Washington (~94%) > Pitts (~81%) ≈ Bijan/London (~77%).
• Design:
  • Typical 11 personnel, with the Mooney role filled by Washington
  • A returning Darnell Mooney should restore vertical stress and help efficiency in the run game with fewer defensive bodies crowding the line of scrimmage.
• OL context:
  • No Kaleb McGary; RT depth thin.
  • Storm Norton still several weeks out
  • Run efficiency risk remains.
• Red Zone
  • Bijan: 4 carries, no TD.
  • Allgeier: 2 carries, stuffed.
  • London: 2 end-zone targets, no scores.

Injuries / Status

• Drake London: shoulder sprain; not expected to miss significant time (monitor practice reports).
• Darnell Mooney: near Week-2 return (game-time last week).
• OT Storm Norton: ~6–8 weeks away.

Schedule (Weeks 2–5)

• Week 2: at MIN
• Week 3: at CAR
• Week 4:  vs WAS
• Week 5: BYE

Fantasy Take: Don’t overreact to the rushing faceplant—Bijan’s receiving usage is elite, and the pass game should breathe once Mooney returns.

Kansas City Chiefs

Sell Travis Kelce

Offensive Overview

Mahomes did the heavy lifting (team-high rushing + TD). Backfield = committee. With Xavier Worthy (shoulder) and Rashee Rice out, Marquise Brown soaked up elite volume.

Backfield

• Isaiah Pacheco — 5–25 rush; 2–3 rec on three tgts; ~51% snaps.
  • Efficient per carry, but concerning volume and a committee cap, the ceiling. RB2/3 hold; not a buy.
• Kareem Hunt — 5–16 rush; 2–10 rec on three tgts; ~38% snaps.
  • True 1B to Pacheco’s 1A.
• Brashard Smith (rookie) — mixed in (~13% snaps). Depth only.

Receivers & TE

• Marquise Brown — 10–99–0 on 16 targets; ~93% snaps.
  • Alpha usage while Worthy/Rice are sidelined
  • Also, three red-zone targets.
  • Strong Add/Hold (priority if available).
• JuJu Smith-Schuster — 5–55–0 on five targets; ~70% routes.
  • Floor play while the WR room is thin.
  • PPR depth.
• Tyquan Thornton — 2–41–0 on four targets; ~70% routes.
  • Deep shots leader (team-high air yards). Boom/bust WR dart throw.
• Travis Kelce — 2–47–1 on four targets; ~84% snaps.
  • Big TD masks quiet volume despite full role.
  • Age/decline risk + WR injuries didn’t spike usage.
  • Sell high.

Advanced / Usage Notes

• Routes:
  • Brown (~94%) > Kelce (~81%) > JuJu/Thornton (~70%).
• Air yards:
  • Thornton quietly led
  • Brown handled overall share + chain-moving work.
• Game plan:
  • With Worthy out, Brown became the focal read
  • Expect continued funnel to Hollywood.
• Red Zone:
  • Brown: 3 RZ targets (no TD).
  • Kelce: 1 RZ target (scored from outside RZ).
  • Pacheco: 1 RZ carry (10 yds), no TD.

Injuries / Status

• Xavier Worthy: dislocated shoulder; multi-week outlook likely (IR possible).
• Rashee Rice: already out but with a Week 7 return on the horizon.
• Watch: Jalen Royals (rookie) as a deep-league stash if activated; could leapfrog depth.

Schedule (Weeks 2–6)

• Week 2: vs PHI
• Week 3: at NYG
• Week 4: vs BAL
• Week 5: at JAX
• Week 6: vs DET

Fantasy Take: Despite no, Rashee Rice or Xavier Worthy, Kelce was almost a non-factor for the Chiefs in Week 1 had it not been for a perfectly schemed up TD pass from Patrick Mahomes. He ran 81% of the routes but came away with just a 10.3% Target share. Sell while there’s still hope he can produce amid the Chiefs’ WR injuries. Rice will be back in Week 7, making any boost Kelce sees short-lived at best.

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Los Angeles Chargers

Buy Justin Herbert, Hold Omarion Hampton

Offensive Overview

• Justin Herbert looked awesome (designed runs, off-script plays), elevating the whole offense in a tough matchup.
• Rookie Omarion Hampton owned the backfield volume, while Keenan/Ladd/QJ formed a productive, high-usage trio.
• The TE room was split.

Backfield

• Omarion Hampton — 15–48 rush; 2–13 rec (2 targets); ~80% snaps.
  • Clear lead back; didn’t pop vs a strong KC front, but usage is/was bell-cow-ish.
  • I wasn’t super impressed by Hampton in Week 1, but I can acknowledge that he is still a rookie and that it was a tougher matchup versus KC.
• Najee Harris — 1–5 rush; 1–5 rec (1 target).
  • Likely ramps after missing time, but Week 1 was all Hampton.
• Greg Roman trend held—limited RB targets as receivers.

Receivers & TE

• Keenan Allen — 7–68–1 on 10 targets.
  • Herbert’s security blanket; team-high target rate.
  • Every week WR3 with weekly spikes.
• Ladd McConkey — 6–74 on nine targets.
  • Routes leader; steady, schemed involvement. Strong hold.
• Quentin Johnston — 5–79–2 on seven targets.
  • Two TDs (one from RZ), classic boom/bust profile; still drop-prone.
  • Add if price is sane; don’t overbid.
• KeAndre Lambert-Smith (next WR up; flashed on a nasty route, narrowly missed a big play).
  • Deep-league stash (prefer over Tre Harris right now).
• Tight Ends:
  • Will Dissly (~57% snaps, most routes) > Tyler Conklin (~43%).
  • Split caps both.

Advanced / Usage Notes

• Routes:
  • McConkey > Johnston > Keenan.
  • Dissly led TEs in routes.
• Targets:
  • Keenan & Ladd each ~27% share
  • QJ leveraged in scoring areas (2 end-zone looks).
• Air Yards:
  • McConkey & QJ > 90 each
  • Keenan ~78.
• First half:
  • Keenan + Ladd (6 targets each) drove volume
  • QJ had just two looks but a TD.
• Red Zone
  • Hampton: 4 RZ carries (17 yds), no TD.
  • QJ: 2 RZ targets : 1 TD.
  • Keenan: 1 end-zone target : TD.

Injuries / Status

• Offense came out clean.
• LB Denzel Perryman: high-ankle sprain (defense hit).

Schedule (Weeks 2–6)

• Week 2: at LV
• Week 3: vs DEN
• Week 4: at NYG
• Week 5: vs WAS
• Week 6: at MIA

Fantasy Take: Herbert’s legs + timing with Keenan/Ladd give this passing game a high weekly floor. Hampton owns the job; efficiency should follow in softer spots. QJ is your upside swing off waivers—just don’t chase at any cost.

Dallas Cowboys

Buy George Pickens, Hold Javonte Williams

Offensive Overview

Dak Prescott looked sharp, the offense moved the ball, and Javonte Williams owned the backfield/high-value touches. CeeDee Lamb was a target-and-air-yards hog; George Pickens is a classic buy-low after a quiet line.

Backfield

• Javonte Williams — 15–54, 2 TD; 3 targets, 2–10; ~77% snaps.
  • Goal-line + passing routes = strong weekly floor.
  • Hold/Start (RB2 with RB1 spikes in strong offensive game scripts).
• Miles Sanders — 49-yd burst + a fumble; ~18% snaps; 2 RZ carries.
  • Change-of-pace/handcuff only
  • Role could shrink when Jaydon Blue returns.
• KaVontae Turpin — gadget (4 touches).
  • Fun, but only deep-league PPR dart.

Receivers & TE

• CeeDee Lamb — 7–110 on 13 targets.
  • Monster usage (see advanced).
  • Every week WR1.
• George Pickens — 3–30 on four targets; led WRs in routes; 1 EZ target + drawn DPI.
  • Role is intact; production will follow.
  • Aggressive buy-low.
• Jake Ferguson — 5–23 on six targets; ~77% routes.
  • Usable TE1/stream, but ceiling capped when Pickens heats up.
  • Hold if needy for tight end; otherwise replaceable.
• Jalen Tolbert — 1 catch on two targets.
  
  

Advanced / Usage Notes

• Routes:
  • Pickens ~92% > Lamb ~89% > Ferguson ~77% > Williams ~71%.
• CeeDee dominance: 171 air yards, 54% AY share, 38% Target share, 42% TPRR.
  • Translation: even with drops, he commanded everything.
• Red Zone
  • Javonte Williams: 3 RZ carries: 2 TD (primary finisher).
  • Miles Sanders: 2 RZ carries (post-fumble usage to watch).
  • Targets: Tolbert had the lone RZ look among WR/TE.

Injuries / Status

• DT Perrion Winfrey to IR; no major O-skill injuries reported.

Schedule (Weeks 2–7)

• Week 2: vs NYG
• Week 3: @ CHI
• Week 4: vs GB
• Week 5: @ NYJ
• Week 6: @ CAR
• Week 7: vs WAS

Fantasy Take: George Pickens opened up Week 1 with a total dud, but there’s reason to believe there’s more to come with the new Cowboys WR. It was his first game with Dak Prescott (who looked great) and ran a route on 90% of the dropbacks. Had he caught a pass that he had not been interfered with, his game log (3-30 on four targets) might have looked a lot different.

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Philadelphia Eagles

Buy Devonta Smith, Hold AJ Brown

Offensive Overview

• Jalen Hurts balled as a runner (14-62-2) while Saquon Barkley (18-60-1) handled the grind and red-zone work.
• The shocker: AJ Brown = 1 target.
• Usage says fluke; buy the dip. Backfield depth just changed with Tank Bigsby’s arrival

Backfield

• Saquon Barkley — 18-60-1; ~79% snaps; 1 RZ target + 4 RZ carries.
  • Role is secure; TDs capped a bit by Hurts’ sneaks.
• Jalen Hurts — 14 rushes, 2 TD.
  • Expect continued high keeper/sneak usage near the goal line.
• Will Shipley — 3-26 (rib).
  • Useful change-up when healthy.
• AJ Dillon — 3-10.
  • Looks like emergency depth.
• Tank Bigsby (trade)
  • “Kick return” story aside, this likely fortifies RB2 while Shipley heals and Dillon struggles.

Receivers & TE

• AJ Brown — 1 target, 1-8; routes ~94%.
  • Full-time routes, zero volume = classic buy-low. Expect schemed rebound.
• DeVonta Smith — 3-16 on 3; routes ~97%.
  • Typical variance when TE/backs soak underneath.
• Dallas Goedert — 7-44 on 7; ~85% routes.
  • Low aDOT mover; steady TE1 floor, limited TD ceiling.
• Jahan Dotson — 3-59 on 3.
  • Nice splash, but remains ancillary here.

Usage Notes

• Routes:
  • DeVonta ~97% > AJB ~94% > Goedert ~85% — roles unchanged.
• aDOT/Design:
  • Very low Hurts aDOT
  • Lots of underneath to TEs/RBs.
• Red Zone:
  • Team didn’t target WRs
  • Saquon handled five RZ opportunities
  • Hurts scored two TDs.

Schedule:

• Week 2: @ KC
• Week 3: LAR
• Week 4: @TB
• Week 5: DEN
• Week 6: @NYG

Fantasy Take: As easy as it seems to think AJB is primed for a bounce back, I think we could very much see DeVonta Smith EAT in Week 2. The guy owns the Chiefs statistically every time he gets to play them.

Chicago Bears

Sell D’Andre Swift, Drop Colston Loveland

Offensive Overview

• Caleb Williams was electric on the ground (6–58–1), while De’Andre Swift got bell-cow usage but stayed inefficient (22 opps for just 65 yards). Rome Odunze looked like Caleb’s preferred chain-mover/red-zone guy (team-high targets, TD).
• DJ Moore produced on limited looks (Williams also missed him).

Backfield

• De’Andre Swift — 17–53 rush; 3–12 on five tgts; ~81% snaps.
  • Volume strong, efficiency… not.
  • Poor rushing success rate (second worst among qualifiers in Week 1) + one RZ carry (-3) caps TD odds.
  • Shop around.
• Roschon Johnson (DNP).
  • When active, he’s the likeliest to siphon short-yard/goal-line work.
• Kyle Monangai — 13% snaps; 1 tgt for 11.
  • Staff likes him; could become the RB1 if Swift sputters.
  • Deep-league stash.
• Caleb Williams — Konami code.
  • Designed/scramble TD equity weekly.

Receivers & TE

• Rome Odunze — 6–37–1 on nine targets
  • Team-high; clear red-zone connection with Caleb
• DJ Moore — 3/68 on 5; ~81% routes; 38% air-yard share. 3 backfield carries for 8 yards.
  • Lower Target share, but still the big-play engine.
• Olamide Zaccheaus — 4/42 on 7 (slot role).
  • Productive in the Ben-Johnson slot—but short-term placeholder.
• Luther Burden — 1/-3; ~27% snaps.
  • Stash with patience
  • Path = taking OZ’s slot role later.
• Cole Kmet — 1/31 on one target; ~90% snaps / ~65% routes.
  • Every-down TE with volatile targets.
• Colston Loveland — 2/12 on 2; ~57% snaps / ~44% routes.
  • Talented, but not startable yet.
  • Hold where you can, but likely a drop in shallow redraft formats.

Advanced Receiving

• Routes:
  • Odunze 93%, DJ Moore 81%, Kmet 65%, Loveland 44%, Zaccheaus 56%.
• Target share:
  • Odunze 23%, Zaccheaus 20%, DJ Moore 14%.
• TPRR:
  • Zaccheaus 29% (Ben Johnson slot role paying off).
• Air yards:
  • DJ Moore 92 (38% share).
• Red Zone
  • Odunze & Zaccheaus each saw a red-zone target; Odunze converted for a TD.
  • Swift: only 1 RZ carry (–3 yards) — not ideal for his TD outlook.
• Efficiency Flags
  • Swift: 17.6% rushing success rate (2nd-worst in Week 1 per your notes) and –1.2 RYOE/att, despite just 6% stacked boxes.

Injuries / Defense

• Kyler Gordon and Jalen Johnson (CBs) did not play, contributing to a late defensive collapse. Monitor secondary health.

Schedule:  

• Week 2: at DET – Expect a pace/total bump; Bears’ banged-up CB room also points to potential shootout conditions.
• Week 3: vs DAL
• Week 4: at LV
• Week 5: BYE

Fantasy Take: Sell D’Andre Swift. Swift got the bell cow usage but was highly inefficient (similar to last season). He was a bit better in the second half, but I think eventually the Bears might opt to look for alternatives if he doesn’t improve on the ground. Sell window on Swift if anyone buys the workload—usage elite, efficiency concerning; likely cedes work when Roschon Johnson returns as well.

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Minnesota Vikings

Hold Jordan Mason, Sell/Hold TJ Hockenson

Offensive Overview

• RB split:
  • Jordan Mason 50% snaps (15–68; 3 RZ carries but zero rushing TDs)
  • Aaron Jones 50% (8–23) but the passing role (3–44–1).
  • Exactly the thunder/lightning we expected in the Vikings’ backfield.
  • Role split: Near 50/50 snaps (Mason 50.4% / 30 snaps, Jones 50% / 28 snaps). Mason = early-down/goal-line; Jones = passing game.

Receiving

• Justin Jefferson: 4–44–1 on seven targets, led air yards (74; 53% share).
• Aaron Jones: 3–44–1 on three targets.
• Jalen Naylor: 1–28 on three targets (spot start with Addison out).
• T.J. Hockenson: 3–15 on four targets (quiet box score, full-time role).
  • Would expect a bounce back at some point, but with Addison’s return looming, it’s hard to get too excited about Hockenson’s season-long potential.
  • The expectation is that he would be a strong sell-high candidate. Perhaps after a strong Week 2 or 3, you look to move him.
• Adam Thielen: WR3 usage; light involvement.

Snaps & Roles

• Jefferson 98%, Hockenson 80%, Naylor 88% (filling in for Addison), Thielen 57%.
• Backfield: see split above; usage matched the expectation (Mason runner, Jones receiver).

First-Half Notes

• McCarthy started slow (5/8 for 48 yards, two sacks). Offense ignited in the 4th quarter, fueling the comeback.

Advanced Receiving

• Routes: Jefferson #1, Nailor #2, Hockenson ~75% route participation, Thielen ~62%.
• Air yards: Jefferson dominated; others secondary.

Red Zone

• Mason: 3 RZ rushes, no score (encouraging role).
• Jefferson: 2 RZ targets, TD.
• Nailor: 1 RZ target, no score.

Injuries / OL

• Jeff Okudah (head) evaluated for concussion.
• Blake Cashman (hamstring) to MRI.
• Christian Darrisaw (OT) did not play.

Schedule:

• Week 2: vs ATL
• Week 3: vs CIN
• Week 4: @ PIT
• Week 5: @ CLE
• Week 6: BYE

Fantasy Take: Trust that this Vikings offense will continue to make strides under JJ McCarthy as the season progresses.

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