Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Over the last two games, Kimani Vidal has had a 65.9% snap share, a 44% route share (8.6% target share), and averaged 17 touches and 86.5 total yards. He has handled nine of ten red zone rushing attempts for the team. Among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks second in explosive run rate and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. Vidal should have a solid day this week against a Minnesota run defense that ranks 15th in rushing yards per game while giving up the 14th-highest yards before contact per attempt, the fifth-highest yards per carry to zone runs, and the fourth-highest success rate to zone runs (Vidal 67.7% zone).
With Aaron Jones back this week, we likely see Jordan Mason return to his role as the early-down component of Minnesota’s committee backfield. In Week 1, Mason had all three red zone rushing attempts while logging 15 of 23 running back rushing attempts with a 25% route share (5% target share). Among 57 qualifying backs, Mason ranks 21st in explosive run rate and 17th in missed tackle rate. He should have success on the ground this week. The Chargers have been a soft run defense to exploit all year, allowing the third-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-highest missed tackle rate, and the fifth-highest yards before contact per attempt.
Atlanta is favored this week, which is huge for Allgeier’s outlook. I keep bringing it up weekly, but the trend has held. In Atlanta’s three wins this season, Allgeier has averaged 14.6 touches and 56.3 total yards with three scores. In their three losses, he hasn’t managed a touchdown or more than 24 total yards in any contest. This week could be another nice opportunity to flex Allgeier. Miami has allowed the most rushing yards per game, the highest explosive run rate, and the highest yards after contact per attempt.
Yes, last week Brashard Smith finished with 19 touches and 81 total yards as the RB14 for the week, but much of that production was in garbage time. Smith has juice, but it hasn’t translated into efficiency in the early down department, yet. He has only a 5% missed tackle rate and 1.45 yards after contact per attempt, but that’s with only 22 carries. As a receiving option, he has a 7.3% target share, a 51% target per route run rate, 3.49 yards per route run, and 0.143 first downs per route run. Last week, in the first half, Smith played 26.2% of the snaps with a 27.6% route share and a 16.7% target share (four targets). Smith is a viable flex this week in PPR formats. Washington has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and the third-highest yards per reception to running backs.
Last week, Carolina rotated Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard, with each player getting entire drives to themselves all game. We’ll see if that continues in Week 8. If anything, I think the backfield could shift more in Dowdle’s favor if anything considering his per-touch effectiveness, which continues to dwarf Hubbard’s. Last week, Dowdle played 46.5% of the snaps overall, finishing with 18 touches and 96 total yards as the RB21 for the week. Dowdle has been awesome this season on a per-touch basis. Among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks 19th in explosive run rate and missed tackle rate and fourth in yards after contact per attempt. Assuming that Carolina will continue to feed their ground game and can keep this contest relatively close, Dowdle should eat this week against a run defense that has allowed the second-highest rushing yards per game, explosive run rate, and yards after contact per attempt.
Last week, Carolina rotated Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard, with each player getting entire drives to themselves all game. We’ll see if that continues in Week 8. If anything, I think the backfield could shift more in Dowdle’s favor if anything considering his per-touch effectiveness, which continues to dwarf Hubbard’s. Hubbard finished with a 53.5% snap rate, 16 touches, and 55 total yards. Hubbard STILL hasn’t managed an explosive run or forced a missed tackle this season while posting only 1.82 yards after contact per attempt. Hubbard still has flex relevance if he continues to split the volume with Dowdle, especially with a nice matchup on the ground this week. Buffalo has allowed the second-highest rushing yards per game, explosive run rate, and yards after contact per attempt.
Since Week 6, Chase Brown has averaged a 58.2% snap rate with 20 of 33 running back rushing attempts, a 48.4% route share, and a 6.5% target share. He has had four of five red zone rushing attempts in these two games. Over the last two weeks, he has had 12 touches and 74.5 total yards per game. Among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks 16th in missed tackle rate and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. The Cincy offensive line has actually done a fine job over the last two weeks of opening up holes for Brown with the third-best yards before contact per attempt. Brown should have a solid stat line this week against a Jets’ defense that has allowed the tenth-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and ranks 14th in yards per reception allowed to backs.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Last week, Woody Marks regained his lead job in the backfield with a 61% snap rate, a 35.2% route share, both red zone rushing attempts, and a 10.2% target share. He finished with 13 touches, 35 total yards, and a score as the RB16 for the week. Marks has posted only a 7% missed tackle rate and 2.20 yards after contact per attempt. Volume is really what you’re relying upon with him if you’re plugging him into a lineup. Marks will need all of the volume he can get this week. The 49ers’ run defense has been improving and has allowed the 13th-fewest rushing yards per game, the 12th-lowest explosive run rate, and the tenth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Sit’em
Last week, Rhamondre Stevenson played a season-high 75.4% of the snaps finishing with 20 touches and 88 total yards. He looks locked in as New England’s workhorse back with snap shares north of 70% in back-to-back games. Among 57 qualifying backs, Stevenson ranks 11th in missed tackle rate and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. Stevenson needs a touchdown and a ton of volume to pay off for fantasy this week. Cleveland has limited rushers to the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the RB32 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 5, he has averaged 16 touches and 83.3 total yards. Across the last three games, his offensive line and game scripts haven’t done him any favors. Since Week 5, Washington’s offensive line has generated the seventh-fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Among 57 qualifying backs, Bill still ranks tenth in explosive run rate and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. Bill appears headed for another down day in Week 8. Kansas City has allowed the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt and explosive run rate, and the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
I’ll update Kyle Monangai‘s Week 8 outlook on Friday when we have more clarity about D’Andre Swift‘s availability. If Swift is out, Monangai could be the team’s bellcow this week. Last week, he played 46.3% of the snaps with three of ten running back red zone rushing attempts. He had 13 of 33 running back carries and a 29.6% route share (7.7% target share). Monangai has a solid 17% missed tackle rate with 2.20 yards after contact per attempt this season. This week, he faces a Baltimore run defense that has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the seventh-highest success rate to zone runs (Monangai 65.7% zone).
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