Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’Em
Stefon Diggs (WR – NE)
After monster performances in Weeks 4-5, I didn’t see Stefon Diggs’ quiet Week 6 coming. He looked like he was on a smash trajectory, and then Week 6 happened. Diggs had a 64.5% route share, an 11.5% target share, 28 receiving yards (1.40 yards per route run), and a 16.7% first-read share. In the two previous games, Diggs had a 67.2% route share, a 39.6% target share, 123.5 receiving yards per game (6.33 yards per route run), and a 44.4% first-read share. He has three red zone targets across those two games. Diggs is likely to see shadow coverage this week from L’Jarius Sneed. Sneed followed Nico Collins, Davante Adams, and Marvin Harrison Jr. on 75-85.2% of their routes. Adams roasted him, but that was in Week 2. In Weeks 4-5 against Collins and Harrison Jr., Sneed held each player below 40 receiving yards (zero touchdowns) in his coverage. Since Week 3, Tennessee has had the second-highest two-high rate in the NFL (66.9%). Since Week 4, against two high, Diggs has had a 29.4% target share with 2.24 yards per route run and a 37.5% first-read share. Don’t be surprised if Drake Maye feeds Diggs this week despite the shadow coverage from Sneed, but I’ll say, with the way that Maye has been spreading the ball around, I also wouldn’t be shocked if he avoids the matchup. There’s a wide range of outcomes for Diggs in Week 7.
DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI)
DeVonta Smith is the WR38 in fantasy points per game with five deep targets and five red zone targets (all five in his last four games). Smith has a 20.9% target share, 53.5 receiving yards per game (1.64 yards per route run), and a 26.8% first-read share. Minnesota utilizes two high at the highest rate in the NFL (69.8%). Against two high, Smith is second on the team with a 22.3% target share (tied with A.J. Brown), but he has had a strong 1.92 yards per route run to go along with his 28.8% first-read share (tied for the team lead). I expect Smith and Goedert to lead the way for the Eagles’ passing attack this week. Smith will have to overcome a tough matchup, but he has the talent to do so. Minnesota has limited slot receivers to the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fifth-fewest PPR points per target.
Romeo Doubs (WR – GB)
Romeo Doubs is the WR24 in fantasy points per game while ranking ninth among wide receivers in red zone targets. He has three top-36 weekly finishes this season (WR35, WR3, WR30). Arizona has the seventh-highest two-high rate in the NFL (58.4). Since Week 4, against two high, Doubs has led the team with a 24.3% target share and 33.3% first-read share while posting 1.68 yards per route run. Doubs should be a nice flex play this week against a secondary that has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Matthew Golden (WR – GB)
Since Week 4, Matthew Golden has been the WR31 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 15.9% target share with a 19.6% first-read share and producing 72 receiving yards per game with 2.88 yards per route run. He has two red zone targets across his last three games. Arizona has the seventh-highest two-high rate in the NFL (58.4%). Since Week 4, against two high, Golden leads the team with a 27% target per route run rate and 4.15 yards per route run. He is second on the team with a 25% first-read share. Golden should have another nice outing this week against a secondary that has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Troy Franklin (WR – DEN)
Troy Franklin is the WR48 in fantasy points per game with two top-36 weekly finishes this season (WR7, WR36). He has a 71.8% route share, a 17% target share, 41.7 receiving yards per game (1.53 yards per route run), and an 18% first-read share. Franklin has only one score across the last five games despite seeing six red zone targets. Across the last two weeks, the Giants have utilized two high at the seventh-highest rate (58.6%). Against two high, Franklin has seen his first-read share increase to 20.3%. Franklin is a solid flex option this week against a secondary that has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Christian Kirk (WR – HOU)
Since his Week 3 return, Kirk hasn’t had any monster games, seeing a 15.5% target share, a 19.8% air-yard share, and a 17.6% first-read share. During that span, he has averaged 36.3 receiving yards per game with 1.58 yards per route run. This week is the time to flex him, though. Seattle has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to slot receivers (Kirk: 72.5% slot rate).
Sit’Em
Josh Downs (WR – IND)
If you read the Primer last week and plugged in Josh Downs after reading my write-up, you enjoyed his WR15 for the week finish. While my pro-Downs prediction came true last week, his route share fell to 57.6%. He has crossed the 70% mark only once this season (Week 5). It’s incredibly frustrating, considering his talent, that the Colts are resistant to playing him in a full-time capacity. Overall, he has a 59.1% route share, an 18% target share, 36.2 receiving yards per game (1.85 yards per route run), and a 21.1% first-read share. This week, Downs faces a secondary that, in four of six games, has utilized single high with 51.1-59.4% of their defensive snaps. Against single high, Downs has seen his numbers slightly increase with an 18.8% target share, 2.15 yards per route run, and a 21.4% first-read share. Downs is flex-worthy this week, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat of Week 6. The Chargers have allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points per target and the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game (tied) to slot receivers. Downs is now in the concussion protocol. He didn’t practice on Wednesday. I’ll update his outlook on Friday, but he may miss this week’s game.
Kayshon Boutte (WR – NE)
Kayshon Boutte had a massive game in Week 6, but that was his first standout performance since his big game in Week 1. In Weeks 2-5, Boutte never had more than three receptions or 43 receiving yards in any game. Last week, Boutte was the WR4 in fantasy with a 19.2% target share, 93 receiving yards (two scores), and a 16.7% first-read share. This doesn’t project as another banner performance from Boutte. Since Week 3, Tennessee has had the second-highest two-high rate in the NFL (66.9%). Against two high, Boutte has a 7.3% target share, only 1.44 yards per route run, and an 11.8% first-read share. Sit Boutte this week. I know the matchup is good, but the coverage shell matchup screams stay away. Tennessee has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Tre Tucker (WR – LV)
Remove Tre Tucker’s monster Week 3 game, and he has a 15.3% target share with 42.2 receiving yards per game (1.35 yards per route run) and a 22% first-read share. In his five other games this season, he has three red zone targets and three top-36 weekly finishes (WR24, WR24, WR36). This isn’t the week to flex Tucker. Kansas City has allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – NYG)
Wan’Dale Robinson has two WR1 weekly finishes this season WR5, WR9), but the problem is that he has finished outside the top 30 wide receivers in weekly scoring in every other game. Since Week 4, Robinson has had a 21.8% target share with 42.7 receiving yards per game (1.29 yards per route run), and a 20% first-read share. Robinson has three red zone targets in his last three games. Denver has the fifth-highest single high rate in the NFL (58.8%). Since Week 4, against single high, Robinson has seen his target share fall to 18.8% with a 17.6% first-read share. Those numbers aren’t encouraging, especially when paired with the fact that Denver has allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target and 13th-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers. Sit Robinson this week.
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