Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
- Waiver Wire Picks
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
No one should be starting Cam Ward in fantasy at this point. We have seen a long enough track record this season of Ward being a nothingburger for fantasy. Even if I had the inkling to have faith in Ward, it wouldn’t be this week. Since Week 6, Houston has allowed the second-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest CPOE, and the lowest passer rating and success rate per dropback. Ward is droppable in every redraft format.
Since assuming a starting spot in Week 6, Tez Johnson has been the WR21 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, he has had a 15% target share with 47 receiving yards per game, 1.55 yards per route run, and a 14.8% first-read share. None of those metrics are eye popping. What has carried Johnson’s fantasy value has been touchdowns, with four in his last four games. Johnson has been getting plenty of high-leverage usage to suggest he can continue to ride the lightning with four red zone targets and three deep targets in his last four games. Buffalo has the ninth-highest two-high rate in the NFL (54.7%). Since Week 6, against two high, Johnson has had a 20% target per route run rate and 1.98 yards per route run. Johnson is a solid flex play again this week against a Buffalo secondary that, since Week 6, has ranked 15th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
Christian Watson is a high upside flex play this week. Since his return in Week 8, he has operated as the team’s field stretcher with 50% of his 12 targets coming downfield and Watson logging a 25.8 aDOT. Since Week 8, he has had a 10.9% target share with a 38.2% air-yard share, 2.29 yards per route run, and a 13.8% first-read share. Since Week 8, the Giants have had the second-highest single high rate (69.8%). Since his return, Watson has had a 16% target per route run rate and ranked second on the team in yards per route run (2.58) against single high. Watson’s downfield role will come in handy this week against a secondary that has allowed the fifth-most deep passing yards per game and the 11th-highest passer rating to downfield targets. Watson should have a strong game against a secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
