Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. I am once again back covering the NBA this year from a DFS perspective, providing strategy and player advice for every Thursday and Monday slate. It was a great season last year, despite missing out on some big wins, but I still ended the season profitable. Let’s run it back again this year, shall we?
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. There are only three games today, so you’ll have fewer options to choose from, but that’s what makes GPPs fun. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. I am once again back covering the NBA this year from a DFS perspective, providing strategy and player advice for every Thursday and Monday slate. It was a great season last year, despite missing out on some big wins, but I still ended the season profitable. Let’s run it back again this year, shall we?
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. There are only three games today, so you’ll have fewer options to choose from, but that’s what makes GPPs fun. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $9,700
- FanDuel: $9,400
Honestly, this is a tough slate to figure out. There isn’t a single player over $10,000, so there’s no clear stud to go to for filling out your lineups. Pascal Siakam is more of a “who else?” approach. He’s playing 35 minutes a game with a 30% usage rate and is consistent despite the team’s efforts on the floor.
The Pacers are underdogs tonight, but will still compete, and a lot of plays will go through Siakam. It’s hard to say the Indiana big man has the biggest ceiling on today’s slate, but he is the highest-priced player, so it’s easy to see a path where he is a must-play option.
- DraftKings: $9,300
- FanDuel: $9,200
With Trae Young out and no other point guard within striking distance price-wise, a lot of people will end up gravitating toward Devin Booker tonight. He’s averaging 45 fantasy points a game and is coming off a 45 DraftKings point effort after playing 38 minutes in a win over Dallas.
Booker’s usage rate is at a healthy 31%, and I’m not sure what other point guard could compete with his ceiling tonight. Indiana’s defense ranks in the bottom third of the league, and the Pacers are playing a little bit shorthanded tonight. Of course, Donovan Mitchell will slot into this category assuming health, but Booker is still a preferred option. He’s not a “gotta have” star, but he’s an easy option to build your lineup around at his sub-$10,000 price tag.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $6,400
- FanDuel: $7,000
It’s hard to say he’s a lock for cash games, but Jarrett Allen is coming off one of his best games of the season, and it’s not the first time we’ve seen him produce a double-double. Cleveland is limited and coming off a back-to-back, which will make their rotation interesting.
I once again remind you to follow the news for any injury updates or rotational news. Allen is in the friendliest matchup of them all today, with Cleveland sporting the highest team total on the entire slate. It’s not saying much for a three-game slate, but obviously significant given the situation. The Raptors have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing centers. Even though it’s a back-to-back, the Cavaliers at least return home to play Toronto on short rest of their own.
- DraftKings: $7,700
- FanDuel: $7,300
You’ll see a lot of people targeting this game just because of how high the total is, and I’m no different. Brandon Ingram has been consistent, failing to score 30 DraftKings points just once all season. His usage rate is at a healthy 25% clip, and he’s managed around 33 minutes all season.
Given the current state of the Cavaliers and the fast-paced game we will see tonight, Ingram makes for a clean cash game option without breaking the bank.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $6,900
- FanDuel: $6,800
It’s still quite early with projections, but it looks like not a lot of rostership is funneling down to Immanuel Quickley tonight, and I’m jumping at that opportunity. He has consistently been scoring above 35 fantasy points — four straight games now — and is capable of the ceiling output against the Cavaliers.
Quickley has been playing over 30 minutes a night consistently, and I expect the same tonight. Quickley’s usage rate has been steadily climbing and has been over 25% in two of his last four games. For his ceiling and recent consistency, he should be rostered more.
- DraftKings: $8,600
- FanDuel: $8,800
Obviously, this is assuming he plays, but I’m guessing after resting that Evan Mobley will be back tonight. Cleveland will be the most important team to monitor tonight, with the highest projected team total and the most question marks when it comes to lineup and rotation projections.
I project Mobley to play around 34 minutes with his usual 24% usage rate to result in a great return on investment. I’m guessing his rostership will steadily increase throughout the day once that big red “out” tag isn’t next to his name, but he still has a high ceiling worth going for. He’s scored 38+ points in three straight games and has gone over 50 DraftKings points twice already this season. Even if his rostership increases, he makes a fine GPP play.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,300
- FanDuel: $4,100
Even though Jeremiah Robinson-Earl was slotted into the starting spot last game, he had a pretty rough outing with just 22 minutes of play and a 9% usage rate. His price has actually come down, but he’s still capable of putting up 30+ points, and projecting him closer to 24 is still a solid value for today’s slate.
Robinson-Earl is probably the closest to a punt you’ll get on the slate today. While he might not be the best option to pair with Pascal Siakam, he’s an easy pivot.
- DraftKings: $4,800
- FanDuel: $4,800
Rookie Ace Bailey has found himself in the starting lineup, and he’s made use of his additional play. In three straight games, he’s scored 26+ fantasy points, and it seems to be a good trend.
Bailey was a part of a 152-point team effort against Indiana on Tuesday, adding 20 of his own. He projects as one of the best values on today’s slate. I imagine he plays around 27 minutes tonight. With his usage rate over 20% since he’s found his groove, that makes for a recipe for success.
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