Fantasy Football Heat Index: Buy or Sell Surprise Performances

Every Monday of the NFL regular season, we look at breakout performances from the weekend and analyze their potential for sustained success. We will rank these performances from 1-5 based on whether we believe they are momentary or long-term options for your fantasy teams.

Fantasy Football Heat Index

Quarterback

Tyler Shough (QB – NO)

Stats:

26-of-38 for 239 Passing Yards
2 Passing Touchdown
1 Interception
6 Rushing Attempts
18 Rushing Yards

Position Rank (pre-MNF): QB11 (18.4 fantasy points)

Analysis: Tyler Shough went 26-of-38 for 239 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in the New Orleans Saints’ 21-17 loss to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. After a rough start, he settled in and is currently sitting as the QB11 on the week, showing he can produce in catch-up situations.

Shough is not rosterable in standard 1-QB formats. However, his upcoming fantasy playoff schedule (Carolina Panthers, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans) gives him streaming appeal in Superflex leagues. Managers in those formats should keep him on the radar as a potential plug-and-play option if quarterback depth becomes an issue.

Heat Index: 2

Running Back

Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR)

Stats:

17 Rushing Attempts
83 Rushing Yards
2 Receptions
41 Receiving Yards
1 Touchdown

Position Rank (pre-MNF): RB5 (19.4 fantasy points)

Analysis: After losing his No. 1 RB role to Rico Dowdle, Chuba Hubbard is finding his place again in Carolina’s backfield. In Week 13, the two backs saw nearly identical opportunities, with Hubbard turning his share into 124 total yards. He rushed 17 times for 83 yards and added two receptions for 41 yards in the Panthers’ 31-28 upset of the Los Angeles Rams, showcasing the talent that got him rewarded with a four-year, $33.2 million extension last November.

For fantasy managers, Hubbard’s performance was enough to put him back in the Flex conversation. The backfield remains a split, but his recent uptick in usage shows he can deliver value even without a full workload. Still, this was only the second time all season he has topped 70 rushing yards, so expectations should be tempered.

With touches evening out and Hubbard producing more in recent weeks, Carolina’s backfield looks firmly like a two‑back split. His rising usage and timely scoring make him a viable Flex option, but managers should not bank on RB1-level production becoming the norm. The Panthers head into a bye in Week 14, giving fantasy managers an extra week to evaluate how this split might evolve down the stretch.

Heat Index: 3

Wide Receiver

Christian Watson (WR – GB)

Stats:

4 Receptions
80 Receiving Yards
1 Touchdown

Position Rank (pre-MNF): WR12 (16.3 fantasy points)

Analysis: Christian Watson continued his late-season surge in Week 13, catching four passes for 80 yards and a touchdown in Green Bay’s 31-24 win over the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day. He’s the current WR12 on the week, marking his third straight top-36 finish and reinforcing his growing role in the Packers’ passing attack.

With 22 targets across his last three games, Watson is beginning to emerge as Green Bay’s most reliable wide receiver. His vertical speed and red-zone presence have given Jordan Love a consistent option, and fantasy managers are seeing the payoff in three straight fantasy-relevant performances.

This outing comes on the heels of finishing as the WR5 in Week 11 and the WR36 in Week 12, showing Watson’s ability to deliver both steady production and game-breaking upside. While his target volume remains modest compared to elite wideouts, the efficiency and touchdown equity keep him firmly in the weekly starter mix as the fantasy playoffs approach.

Heat Index: 4

Tight End

Isaiah Likely (TE – BAL)

Stats:

5 Receptions
95 Receiving Yards
1 Fumble Lost

Position Rank (pre-MNF): TE9 (10 fantasy points)

Analysis: Isaiah Likely turned in his best game of the season in Baltimore’s 32-14 loss to Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals, hauling in five passes for 95 yards. He’s the current TE9 on the week, standing out as one of the few bright spots in an otherwise lopsided loss.

That said, this feels more like a one-off than a changing of the guard. Mark Andrews continues to command roughly two‑thirds of Baltimore’s snaps, leaving Likely in more of a complementary role. His breakout came against a Bengals defense that has consistently bled points to tight ends. Without a shift in usage, it’s hard to see him sustaining weekly relevance.

Heat Index: 2