Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Last week’s blowout win for Seattle led to muddy snap counts for the backfield again. In the first half, Walker was leading the way with a 54.5% snap rate and 42.1% route share, but he only played one snap out of six possible snaps in the red zone. Seattle remains committed to using Zach Charbonnet as their red zone back. Since Week 11, Walker has averaged 16.3 touches and 95.4 total yards as the RB15 in fantasy points per game. Overall, among 55 qualifying backs, Walker ranks second in explosive run rate and fifth in missed tackle rate. Walker is in a good spot to continue his RB2 production this week. Since Week 9, Atlanta has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest rushing success rate, the 13th-most yards before contact per attempt, and they have logged the fifth-lowest stuff rate.
Last week, the Bears ran the ball down the Eagles’ throats with success and hid their young quarterback. I could see Ben Johnson deploying a similar attack plan this week. Last week, Swift played 52.9% of the snaps with a 47.5% route share. He had one of five red zone rushing attempts and finished with 19 touches and 138 total yards. Overall, he his the RB13 in fantasy points per game. Among 55 qualifying backs, Swift ranks eighth in explosive run rate and 16th in missed tackle rate. Since Week 9, Green Bay’s run defense has displayed some give, ranking 15th in explosive run rate while allowing the 11th-most rushing yards per game and the 14th-highest yards before contact per attempt.
Last week, Ben Johnson leaned on the ground game to help protect Caleb Williams. I think Chicago should and will deploy a similar attack plan against Green Bay. Last week, Monangai finished with 22 carries and 130 rushing yards as the RB8 for the week. He had four of five running back red zone rushing attempts while playing 44.7% of the snaps with a 22.5% route share (zero targets). Among 55 qualifying backs, Monangai ranks 11th in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in explosive run rate. Since Week 9, Green Bay’s run defense has displayed some give, ranking 15th in explosive run rate while allowing the 11th-most rushing yards per game and the 14th-highest yards before contact per attempt.
Jaylen Warren is the RB20 in fantasy points per game. Last week, he resumed his lead-back duties even though he had a down game. Warren played 55.8% of the snaps with ten of the 15 running back rushing attempts, with a 52% route share. He finished with 12 touches and 44 total yards while splitting the red zone role with Gainwell. Each back had one red zone rushing attempt. Among 55 qualifying backs, Warren is fourth in missed tackle rate and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. He gets another plus matchup this week. Since Week 9, Baltimore has allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-highest missed tackle rate, and the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Since Week 10, Marks has been an RB3 who is getting an RB2 workload. Since Week 10, he has been the RB36 in fantasy points per game, but he has been averaging 67.1% of the snaps with 18.1 touches and 67.1 total yards. Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks 20th in explosive run rate and 37th in yards after contact per attempt. Marks has a horrible matchup this week and will need a touchdown to pay off as an RB2. Since Week 9, Kansas City has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the 11th-fewest yards after contact per attempt, and had the ninth-best stuff rate.
Since Week 11, Chris Rodgriguez has been Washington’s lead back with seven of 11 running back red zone rushing attempts. He has averaged 13.5 touches and 63 total yards. Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks 37th in explosive run rate and third in yards after contact per attempt. He’s a solid touchdown-dependent flex this week. Since Week 9, Minnesota has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the 12th-highest rushing success rate, the third-highest yards after contact per attempt, and logged the 11th-lowest stuff rate.
Last week, the blowout win for Seattle distorted the snap counts. In the first half, Zach Charbonnet played 45.5% of the snaps with a 5.3% route share. Charbonnet was the early down assistant to Kenneth Walker and the team’s red zone back as he had an 83.3% snap share inside the 20-yard line in the first two quarters. Since Week 11, Charbonnet has averaged 11 touches and 44.6 total yards as the RB39 in fantasy points per game. Overall, among 55 qualifying backs, Charbonnet ranks 21st in missed tackle rate and ninth in yards after contact per attempt. Charbonnet remains a decent flex option this week. Since Week 9, Atlanta has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest rushing success rate, the 13th-most yards before contact per attempt, and they have logged the fifth-lowest stuff rate.
Since Week 7, Blake Corum has averaged ten carries and 44.3 rushing yards. He’s a strong flex this week. Corum is in the same area code as Tyler Allgeier weekly, as the 1B in a backfield that could easily work out as a nice fantasy play if he gets in the end zone. Since Week 7, Corum has had 12 red zone carries. He’s finally back to the form that he displayed early in his college career. Among 55 qualifying backs, Corum ranks 12th in explosive run rate and missed tackle rate. Corum could rip a big run or two this week and fall into the end zone. Since Week 9, Arizona has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the second-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-highest explosive run rate.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
David Montgomery‘s role has been shrinking in the Detroit offense. Since Week 11, he has averaged only 8.3 touches and 33.2 total yards. In those three games, he has split the red zone work with Jahmyr Gibbs, with both players seeing four red zone rushing attempts. In his last three games, he has averaged a 36.8% snap rate. Overall, among 55 qualifying backs, Montgomery ranks 32nd in explosive run rate and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. Since the acquisition of Quinnen Williams, Dallas has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the 13th-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the sixth-fewest yards before contact per attempt. Montgomery is a flex option better left on the bench this week.
Last week, even with Isaiah Pacheco back, Hunt retained his lead back role with a 63.6% snap rate, 15 touches, and 70 total yards. He played 75% of the team’s red zone snaps. I expect Hunt to keep this role moving forward. Among 55 qualifying backs, Hunt ranks 42nd in missed tackle rate and 27th in yards after contact per attempt. Hunt is best viewed as a volume-fueled flex play this week. Since Week 9, Houston has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest missed tackle rate, the sixth-lowest rushing success rate, and the tenth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Sit’em
Since Week 6, Tony Pollard has averaged 12.3 touches and 51.3 total yards with a 50% snap share. He has split the red zone work with Tyjae Spears, with each back seeing five red zone rushing attempts. Pollard is a low-end flex play best left on the bench this week. Since Week 9, Cleveland has allowed the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the lowest rushing success rate, and the eighth-lowest yards before contact per attempt.
Since Week 6, Tyjae Spears has averaged nine touches and 45.3 total yards per game with a 49.1% snap share. He has split the red zone work evenly with Tony Pollard, with each back seeing five red zone rushing attempts. Sit Spears this week. Since Week 9, Cleveland has allowed the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the lowest rushing success rate, and the eighth-lowest yards before contact per attempt.
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