Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’Em
The Carolina backfield has been a back-and-forth situation over the last two games, with Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard trading lead back weeks. Since Week 13, Dowdle has had a 50.8% snap rate with a 32.7% route share and 9.1% target share. In those two games, Dowdle had two red zone rushing attempts while averaging 18.5 touches and 66.5 total yards. Overall, this season, among 48 qualifying backs, Dowdle ranks 15th in explosive run rate and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. He’s in the RB2/3 conversation this week against a Bucs’ run defense that, since Week 11, has allowed the tenth-highest missed tackle rate and the ninth-most yards before contact per attempt while also sitting at 18th in explosive run rate.
In his last two full games played, Tracy has been the Giants’ workhorse with a 73.6% snap rate, a 60.2% route share, and a 9.5% target share while averaging 20.5 touches and 113.5 total yards. He finished as the RB12 and RB5 in weekly PPR scoring. Tracy has had a 10% missed tackle rate and 2.09 yards after contact per attempt this season. He’s a pure volume play as a strong RB2 who could easily be an RB1 again this week. Since Week 11, Minnesota has allowed the 13th-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest rushing success rate, and the second-most yards after contact per attempt.
Aaron Jones is a solid RB2 this week. Since Week 14, he has averaged 14.5 touches and 70.5 total yards with a 51.3% snap rate and 45.5% route share. Jones has been the backfield leader, but he hasn’t been the team’s goal line back with only two red zone totes over the last two games (Mason, six). Jones could easily break a long run against the Giants and pay off, though. Since Week 11, the Giants have remained one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, giving up the most rushing yards per game, the second-highest explosive run rate, and the most yards after contact per attempt.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Over the last two games, Jordan Mason has been the team’s early down thumper and goal line back, averaging 10.5 carries and 40.5 rushing yards with a 31.9% snap rate. He has six red zone rushing attempts during those games versus Aaron Jones‘ two. Mason is a strong touchdown-dependent flex play this week. If Minnesota builds a strong lead, we could see him creep into the 13-15 carry range (or higher). Since Week 11, the Giants have remained one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, giving up the most rushing yards per game, the second-highest explosive run rate, and the most yards after contact per attempt.
Last week, with Zonovan Knight injured and Emari Demercado back, Carter was given the keys to the offense to operate as their bellcow with an 80.3% snap share, 18 touches, and 94 total yards. Carter also had a 62.8% route share and a 10% target share. I expect Carter to operate in this role again this week. Carter hasn’t been efficient with his workload, sadly. He hasn’t managed an explosive run this season while posting only a 4% missed tackle rate and 1.39 yards after contact per attempt. Carter is a volume-based RB2/3. Since Week 11, Atlanta’s run defense has picked up the slack, allowing the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest explosive run rate, and the fourth-fewest yards before contact per attempt.
Tyler Allgeier is a solid flex play again this week. Allgeier has averaged 8.8 touches and 35.4 total yards this season with eight top-36 finishes among running backs in weekly scoring. Among 45 qualifying backs, Allgeier ranks 18th in explosive run rate and 33rd in missed tackle rate. Arizona’s run defense has been engaged in a competition with the pass defense over the last few weeks to see who can play worse. Since Week 11, you could argue that the run defense is winning, giving up the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest missed tackle rate, and the fifth-most yards before contact per attempt.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
The Rams have been splitting up the backfield work as the coaching staff wants to keep Kyren Williams fresh for the playoffs. Last week, Williams played 53.6% of the snaps with a 36.6% route share and 2.6% target share. He finished with 16 touches, 88 total yards, and three red zone rushing attempts. I expect Williams to keep a slim margin in usage and playing time over Blake Corum. This week, Williams will have a tough road, but considering the context of the offense he is in, he should be able to overcome the matchup with volume and touchdown equity. Since Week 11, Seattle has allowed the 13th-lowest explosive run rate, the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest rushing success rate, and the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate.
Blake Corum has eaten into Kyren Williams‘ workload with the Rams becoming a split backfield. The Rams are doing this to keep Williams fresh for the rest of the season and the playoffs. Corum has had little to no passing game usage, with only one game this season with more than two targets. His avenue to scoring fantasy points is entirely dependent upon his early downs production in the rushing department. Last week, he played 46.4% of the snaps with a 26.8% route share as he finished with 11 carries for 71 rushing yards. This isn’t the matchup to plug in a touchdown-drive flex play. Since Week 11, Seattle has allowed the 13th-lowest explosive run rate, the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest rushing success rate, and the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate.
The Seattle backfield has been a constant back and forth all season. Once we finally think Kenneth Walker is about to take over, Zach Charbonnet or some other backup running back comes out of the woodwork to foil those plans, so I’m going to look at the last few games as a conglomerate. Since Week 11, Walker has averaged 14 touches and 66.6 total yards with a 51.8% snap rate, a 36.6% route share, and an 8% target share. He has had eight red zone rushing attempts versus Zach Charbonnet‘s 12. Among 43 qualifying backs, Walker ranks fourth in explosive run rate and third in missed tackle rate. Walker has a horrible matchup this week. Since Week 11, the Rams have allowed the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, the sixth-lowest rushing success rate, and the eighth-lowest yards before contact per attempt.
The Seattle backfield has been a constant back and forth all season. Once we finally think Kenneth Walker is about to take over, Zach Charbonnet or some other backup running back comes out of the woodwork to foil those plans, so I’m going to look at the last few games as a conglomerate. Since Week 11, Charbonnet has averaged ten touches and 46.2 total yards, with the backfield lead in red zone rushing attempts with 12. He has played 43% of the snaps with a 26.3% route share and 3.7% target share. He has been a touchdown-dependent flex. Among 43 qualifying backs, he ranks 18th in missed tackle rate and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 11, the Rams have allowed the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, the sixth-lowest rushing success rate, and the eighth-lowest yards before contact per attempt.
Tony Pollard has turned in his two best games of the season over the last two weeks with a 56.3% snap rate, 20 touches, and 135.5 total yards per game. He was the RB2 and RB11 in weekly scoring. Since Week 14, Pollard has churned out a 10.3% explosive run rate and a 15% missed tackle rate. In those two games, he has had a combined two targets and one reception, so don’t expect much passing game usage this week. Pollard will need a ton of volume this week to pay off for fantasy against one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Since Week 11, Kansas City has allowed the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the second-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Sit’Em
Ashton Jeanty is the RB19 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in snap share, second in opportunity share, seventh in weighted opportunities, and 17th in red zone touches. Jeanty has averaged 17.8 touches and 69 total yards. Among 43 qualifying backs, Jeanty is 12th in missed tackle rate and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. Jeanty will need a heaping amount of volume this week and a touchdown to pay off for fantasy. He has a terrible matchup incoming. Since Week 11, Houston has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-fewest yards before contact per attempt.
Last week, Pacheco took over as the team’s goalline back with five red zone rushing attempts, 11 touches, and 21 total yards. He played 45.8% of the snaps with a 35% route share. Pacheco is a flex option that is best left on the bench. Pacheco will be running behind a battered offensive line and against an improved Titans’ run defense. Since Week 11, Tennessee has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, and the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate.
Last week, Kareem Hunt ceded control of the Kansas City backfield to Isiah Pacheco. Hunt had only one red zone rushing attempt, while Pacheco had five. Hunt finished with a 49.2% snap rate, a 42.5% route share, seven touches, and 20 total yards. Sit Hunt this week. The Tennessee run defense has MASSIVELY improved. Since Week 11, Tennessee has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, and the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate.
Since Week 11, David Montgomery has been a touchdown-dependent flex play with a 33.9% snap rate, 7.8 touches per game, and 45.4 total yards per game. Overall, among 58 qualifying backs, Montgomery ranks 34th in explosive run rate and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. This is a nice matchup to consider plugging Montgomery into a lineup. Since Week 11, Pittsburgh has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest explosive run rate, the third-most yards before contact per attempt, and the tenth-highest rushing success rate.
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