Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
This doesn’t line up well as another strong Alec Pierce week. Pierce has been the Colts’ field-stretching single-high destroyer all season. Since Week 10, the Jags have allowed the eighth-lowest passer rating while ranking 16th in adjusted completion rate when defending downfield passing. Also, since Week 10, they have utilized two high at the fifth-highest rate (58.8%). Against two high, Pierce has had an 11.3% target share, 1.44 yards per route run, and a 14.9% first-read share. Working in Pierce’s favor is the fact that the Jags have been horrible against perimeter wide receivers recently. Since Week 9, the Jags have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. This could help Pierce pop off with a splash play or two, but I don’t believe this is a ceiling game for Pierce.
Brian Thomas Jr. returned to the huddle last week with a 78.1% route share, an 11.1% target share, 28 receiving yards, and a 17.6% first-read share (second on the team). He had a 16.0 aDOT, and one of his three targets was downfield. Could Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. connect on a deep heave this week? Sure, but I don’t want to bet on it this week. This season, Indy has allowed the 13th-lowest deep completion rate, the tenth-lowest passer rating to downfield passing, and the third-fewest deep passing touchdowns (tied).
DJ Moore has had a quiet season as the WR43 in fantasy points per game, with only two top 24 weekly finishes. In the last four games, he has finished as the WR68 in weekly scoring or lower three times. Moore has a 14.9% target share with 41.8 receiving yards per game, 1.41 yards per route run, and a 16.9% first-read share. He has seven red zone targets and 11 deep targets. Moore is best left on the bench this week. Since Week 9, Green Bay has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game and the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
