If you’re drafting for 2026 and you want profit in the outfield, you don’t need to get cute. You just need to draft players whose cost bakes in too much pessimism. On a recent episode of the FantasyPros Baseball Podcast, Joe Orrico and Chris Welsh zeroed in on four outfielders they believe are being pushed down boards for reasons that don’t hold up once you dig into skills, role, and context.
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Fantasy Baseball Draft Values
These are fantasy baseball draft values because the floor at their draft cost is attractive, and the upside is better than most of the players going in the same range. Here are four fantasy baseball draft values to target in 2026.
If your roster build needs speed, Marsee is the type of target that can change the shape of your draft. Rico points out the simple headline: 14 steals in 55 MLB games, plus 47 more in 98 minor-league games. That is not a “maybe he runs” profile. That is a player who can legitimately threaten 40 steals if the playing time holds.
The more interesting part is why he’s being undervalued in the first place. Projection systems are pessimistic on his batting average, spitting out numbers in the low-.230s. But Marsee just hit .292 in the majors and did it with the kind of contact and discipline indicators that usually scream “this is real.” Less than 20% chase rate, 90% zone contact, and a 7% swinging strike rate is the recipe for a useful average, especially for a player who doesn’t need to sell out for power.
Welsh also notes the pitch-type success. Marsee wasn’t surviving on one specific weakness. He was making contact against a wide mix, which supports the idea that his average is far more stable than his home run total.
Draft angle: treat him as a batting average plus steals play who should score runs if he sticks atop the lineup. The power is the variable, not the hit tool.
Abreu is the “how is this guy this cheap?” pick in this group. Welsh lays it out: 22 home runs in only 373 at-bats. Stretch that to a full season and 30-homer upside is not aggressive. It’s a reasonable outcome if the role stays intact.
The profile growth is what makes him stand out. Barrel rate climbed to 12%, launch angle jumped to 23 degrees, and pulled air rate rose too. Those are power-shaping changes, not random noise. He also cut strikeouts down and improved zone contact significantly. That’s the kind of combo that can push a player from streaky power bat into something more dependable.
There are two reasons drafters seem hesitant: platoon fear and weird splits. Abreu did struggle more at home last year and had issues against fastballs, but those types of splits often bounce around year to year. Rico adds the stabilizer that fantasy managers sometimes ignore: elite defense. Back-to-back Gold Gloves and strong defensive value make him tougher to bench, tougher to platoon, and safer to keep in the lineup even during rough patches.
Draft angle: if you’re hunting power after your top outfielders are set, Abreu is a shot at 30 homers without paying the 30-homer tax.
Reynolds is the classic “draft-room buy low.” For years he lived in that top-100 comfort zone, and now he’s being pushed way down after a down season. Rico’s case is straightforward: the surface stats dipped (16 homers, .245 average), but the underlying power indicators did not collapse.
His barrel rate stayed healthy at 10%. Hard-hit rate was actually a bit better. He also posted career bests in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, and EV90, which is a strong signal that the raw thump is still there even if results didn’t follow perfectly last year. Plate discipline also didn’t crater. If anything, he chased slightly less.
Context matters too. Pittsburgh’s lineup situation looks improved compared to what Reynolds has often dealt with, and if the Pirates are simply more competent around him, the counting stats can rebound without Reynolds even needing a full “career year” bounce-back.
Draft angle: Reynolds is the boring veteran pick that smart drafters end up loving in June. If he’s going outside the top 200 in your room, you’re buying a potential 20/10 season at a discount.
Laureano is the one that “feels icky,” which is exactly why the price is interesting. Welsh points to a loud 2025 line: .281 with 24 homers and 7 steals in under 450 at-bats. Put that production on a more fashionable name and the market would be chasing it.
The skill growth is real enough to take seriously. Career-high 13.8% barrel rate and 49% hard-hit rate is flirting with the upper tier of batted-ball quality. His expected batting average backed up the improvement, and he cut strikeouts from 31% down to 24%. That’s not a small tweak. That’s a different hitter.
The trade and split context gives you a nice added detail: he hit better in Baltimore than San Diego, but the power stayed, and his strikeouts were even better with the Padres. If he lands in a premium lineup spot, the ceiling climbs fast. Rico notes that if he’s truly hitting cleanup behind the stars, the RBI upside is way higher than the market is pricing.
Draft angle: at his cost, you don’t need perfection. If he gives you anything close to 20/10 with a playable average, he’s a league-winning late outfield pick.
Fantasy Baseball Takeaways
- Marsee is a speed anchor who also offers a surprisingly stable contact profile, making him more than a one-category steals dart.
- Abreu’s power is backed by real batted-ball changes, and his defense should keep him on the field. He’s a strong late power target.
- Reynolds is the draft-day buy low: underlying power still looks intact, and the price has fallen much further than the skill set.
- Laureano is undervalued because he “feels weird,” not because he lacks evidence. Career-best barrel and hard-hit rates make him worth the gamble.
- In 2026 drafts, prioritize players whose cost assumes last year’s outcome is permanent, especially when the skill indicators say otherwise.
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