Rookie talk in fantasy baseball always comes with a catch. Projections tend to underrate players with small MLB samples, while drafters tend to overreact the minute a rookie gets a spring-training spotlight or a helium ADP bump.
The smartest way to play it is pretty simple: draft rookies when the price makes sense, and get out when the room starts charging you a premium.
Fantasy Baseball Experts Love to Draft These Rookies
On a recent FantasyPros MLB podcast, Chris Welsh and NFBC high-stakes drafter Joe Orrico broke down four “rookies to draft” for upcoming redraft leagues. Two are arms with real strikeout juice. Two are bats with upside, each carrying a very different type of risk. Here’s the fantasy translation, plus where the value line is drawn. And you can check out the full episode below.
McLean’s brief MLB run last season is the kind that pulls fantasy managers in fast. He posted a 2.06 ERA with 57 strikeouts across 48 innings, paired with a WHIP barely north of 1.00.
The underlying indicators only add fuel. He showed a deep pitch mix, plus velocity from multiple fastballs, and a curveball that missed bats at an elite rate. Stuff models loved him, and fantasy drafters followed. Hard.
The issue is cost. Welsh pointed out that McLean’s ADP has jumped dramatically, moving from the 130-150 range into the top 100 in many high-stakes draft rooms. That’s where Orrico started to tap the brakes.
The concern isn’t talent. It’s role. When you draft McLean inside the top 100, you’re effectively asking him to be your SP2, or even your SP1 if you load up on hitters early. That’s a lot to ask from a pitcher with fewer than 50 big-league innings.
Fantasy Baseball Takeaways
- McLean is a talent bet that becomes risky when the cost assumes immediate ace-level production.
- He’s much easier to justify if he’s your third or fourth starter rather than a rotation anchor.
- In Yahoo and ESPN leagues, the ADP may settle lower than NFBC rooms, which could reopen the buying window.
Best format fit: 12-team leagues where you can draft him as upside depth, not a foundational arm.
If McLean is the “love the player, hate the cost” rookie, Chandler is the inverse. This is the rookie pitcher whose current ADP still leaves room to win.
Chandler’s MLB debut included a few bumps, but the strikeout profile immediately showed why prospect watchers have been waiting on him. The fastball plays, the secondary stuff misses bats, and the overall profile looks like a real rotation piece, not a temporary fill-in.
Orrico noted that Chandler’s ugly minor-league walk rate last season looked more like noise than a true skill regression. Once he reached the majors, the command stabilized and the strikeouts showed up in bunches.
Most importantly for fantasy, his ADP has remained reasonable. In many drafts, Chandler still comes off the board in the 140-180 range, which makes him an upside swing instead of a make-or-break pick.
Fantasy Baseball Takeaways
- Chandler doesn’t need to be perfect to return value at his current cost.
- The strikeout upside alone makes him attractive as a mid-rotation fantasy starter.
- Compared to similarly priced veterans, he may actually carry less downside.
Best format fit: All redraft formats, especially if you wait on pitching early and want ceiling later.
Stewart might be the most fascinating rookie hitter discussed, mostly because the bat looks ready but the role does not.
In a short MLB look, Stewart hit .255 with five home runs in just 55 at-bats. More importantly, the quality of contact was elite. His expected stats, barrel rate, and exit velocity all screamed “real power,” not a fluky hot streak.
Both Welsh and Orrico agreed the skills are legitimate. The hesitation comes from Cincinnati’s roster construction. Between infield depth and defensive preferences, Stewart’s path to everyday at-bats isn’t guaranteed on Opening Day.
Fantasy Baseball Takeaways
- Stewart is a skills bet, not a playing-time lock.
- He’s best viewed as a late-round stash rather than a player to reach for.
- If injuries or lineup changes open a door, his bat is good enough to force the issue.
Best format fit: 12-team redraft leagues as a final-round upside play, plus deeper formats where patience is rewarded.
Okamoto is the wildcard. He qualifies as a rookie, but brings years of high-level professional experience from Japan and steps directly into a Toronto lineup that needs power.
The projections like him, and the positional context matters. Third base is thin in fantasy right now, and a hitter who can provide 25-plus homers without crushing batting average has real value.
What makes Okamoto especially interesting is how unsettled his ADP still is. Some draft rooms are aggressive. Others are hesitant. That uncertainty is where fantasy value often lives.
Orrico emphasized that Okamoto’s appeal increases if he gains multi-position eligibility or locks into a strong lineup spot early in the season.
Fantasy Baseball Takeaways
- Okamoto is a “read the room” pick more than a set-it-and-forget-it target.
- If the draft table hesitates, you can profit.
- If the room chases upside too aggressively, it’s fine to walk away.
Best format fit: Redraft leagues where corner infield is shallow and you can capitalize on ADP volatility.
Final Thoughts
Focus on the draft day cost, don’t just target the rookie without context.
- McLean is exciting, but dangerous when priced like a frontline starter.
- Chandler offers strikeouts and growth without requiring perfection.
- Stewart is a bench upside bat waiting on opportunity.
- Okamoto is a market inefficiency waiting to be exploited.
Set your price limits, stick to them, and let the room make the mistakes for you. That’s how rookie hype turns into real fantasy baseball profit.