Quarterbacks drive superflex dynasty leagues, and the offseason is when perception can move value faster than production. On The Trade Block, Ryan Warmly and Pat Fitzmaurice broke down the latest dynasty trade values, and the QB discussion centered on two things: tier clarity at the top and how quickly QB value can swing when roles change.
Dynasty Trade Advice
Let’s dive into our dynasty trade advice for quarterbacks in January. And check out our full episode on updated dynasty trade values below:
The Tier 1 conversation (and why it matters)
Warmly framed a clear top tier of dynasty QBs in superflex, the kind of players you build around for years. The key dynasty insight: after the top few, there’s a messy “QB5–QB12” debate zone where managers can justify wildly different rankings.
Why that matters:
If you can trade out of the debate zone at peak hype, or trade into it when managers get nervous, you can create surplus value without ever “predicting” the NFL perfectly.
Jalen Hurts: Still elite, but watch the scoring profile
Hurts was discussed as a QB whose dynasty value can be shaped by a subtle shift: rushing TD dominance. If his weekly ceiling is tied to double-digit rushing scores and that number slips, he can move from “nuclear QB1” to “very good QB1.”
Dynasty move:
- Sell only if someone is paying true elite, top-3 overall QB pricing.
- Hold/buy if the market drops him into the big QB debate tier and you can pay that price.
Lamar Jackson: Not a panic, but a monitor
Warmly asked whether a down/injury-impacted year changes Lamar’s dynasty value. Fitz’s stance: it takes multiple seasons of decline to rewrite what we know about an elite player, and Lamar’s ceiling outcomes are too strong to overreact to one year.
Dynasty move:
- Buy if your league is discounting him because of one season’s narrative.
- Do not overpay above the true “top-tier” price unless you’re confident the roster improves around him.
Trevor Lawrence: The riser with a price-sensitive window
Lawrence came up as one of the more notable QB risers, driven by a late-season surge and improved optimism about his environment.
The dynasty lesson here is simple: late-season performance can create a value bump that becomes self-fulfilling (people repeat the story until it becomes consensus).
Dynasty move:
- Buy if he’s priced as a mid QB1/QB2.
- Sell if he’s suddenly priced as a locked-in top-6 option. You’re not selling the player; you’re selling the market spike.
Malik Willis: The “backup” worth treating like a starter bet
The QB conversation’s most actionable nugget was the outlook on Malik Willis. Fitz described him as the kind of player whose value can jump dramatically with one offseason event: a path to starting.
In dynasty, you don’t need to know the exact landing spot. You need to know that:
- Starting QBs are scarce
- Rushing upside creates fantasy utility quickly
- “Opportunity” alone can inflate trade value by the time free agency hits
Dynasty move:
- Buy now if he’s priced as a low-end stash.
- If your league is sharp, expect the price to rise as soon as starter buzz hits.
Practical trade actions for superflex
Here’s how to use this QB market right now:
Buy targets (if priced reasonably)
- Malik Willis (role swing upside)
- Lawrence (if not priced like an elite)
- “Debate-zone” QBs (QB7–QB12 types) if your league overreacts to one narrative
Sell targets (if the market overpays)
- Hurts if someone is paying for the rushing-TD ceiling as a guarantee
- Lawrence if he jumps multiple tiers
- Any “hot finish” QB if the price assumes perfect continuity
