Every early fantasy football draft season has the same opportunity: the market bakes in last year’s emotions, then forgets how fantasy points actually get scored.
That’s how you end up with proven producers drifting into “fine value” territory when they should be priority targets. On a recent FantasyPros podcast, Jake Ciely highlighted two players who look mispriced in early 2026 expert consensus fantasy football rankings. One is a quarterback who just showed you his ceiling. The other is a running back who keeps finishing as an RB1 while the community talks itself into why it won’t happen again.
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Fantasy Football Draft Values to Target
These are the types of values that win leagues because they let you build a stronger roster early, then scoop upside later without forcing it.
Bo Nix (QB – DEN)
Bo Nix sitting around QB16 in early ECR is the kind of ranking that tells you the market is still catching up.
Ciely’s argument is blunt: the price does not match what Nix just did. He followed up a QB9 rookie year by jumping into the fantasy elite, producing like a weekly difference-maker. Even if you’re skeptical of calling him a locked-in top option going forward, QB16 is pricing in a major step back without a clean reason.
And the best part is you don’t need to argue he repeats as the overall QB1 to like him. This is about roster construction.
In most years, the QB8 to QB14 range is where fantasy players talk themselves into drafting a quarterback early because it “feels safe.” But the scoring gap between those guys and the late-round rushing quarterbacks is often smaller than people think. Nix has the rushing component, plus the ability to stack touchdowns in the right matchup. That’s the profile you want when you’re waiting on the position.
Ciely also pointed out something practical: if Herbert is being drafted many rounds earlier with similar fantasy points per game outcomes recently, why not just wait and take Nix? That’s the correct process in one-QB formats. Spend early picks on scarce volume at RB and WR, then grab your quarterback value pocket.
The situation also isn’t screaming regression. Denver’s defense was excellent, which can cap pass volume in certain game scripts, but defenses change fast year to year. Injuries happen, schedules get tougher, and suddenly your quarterback is throwing more. If you give Nix another year in the same system, the “comfort” improvement alone can stabilize weekly output.
You’re not drafting Nix as a hero pick at QB16. You’re drafting him as a value that can perform like a starter, with the kind of ceiling that lets you beat teams who paid up.
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)
Kyren Williams at RB17 is the classic case of the fantasy community getting bored of a player who keeps cashing checks.
Yes, his points per game have trended down across three seasons. That part is real. But the more important part is also real: he has still been an RB1 three straight years, and he still checks the boxes that matter most for fantasy running backs.
The conversation always circles back to workload fear, especially with Blake Corum taking a step forward. But here’s the reality check Ciely brought up: this is the modern NFL. Most backfields are split. Even stars are living below 60% of touches. What matters is whether your back is on the field in scoring situations and whether the team’s usage is stable enough to project.
Williams still got strong overall usage and remained the goal-line option. He still scored 10 rushing touchdowns. He still contributed as a receiver in a way that keeps his weekly floor intact. And while the split increased, his efficiency improved. That is not the profile of a player falling off a cliff. It’s the profile of a player adjusting to a more normal committee while still holding the valuable work.
So why is he RB17? Because drafters get spooked when a back has a capable No. 2. They start chasing the shiny new toys, or the hypothetical bell cow, or the ambiguous “upside” back who has not actually done it yet.
But Williams has done it. Repeatedly.
This is also where draft cost matters. If you’re taking him in the late fourth-round range, you’re no longer paying for “RB2 overall” outcomes. You’re paying for a back who can realistically finish top 12 again if the touchdowns cooperate. That’s a strong bet when you compare him to the backs going around him, many of whom carry bigger role questions, uncertain offenses, or true timeshare risk without the same red-zone confidence.
In other words, you’re not drafting a perfect player. You’re drafting a stable weekly starter at a price that assumes instability.
Fantasy Takeaways
- Bo Nix: QB16 pricing is a gift for a quarterback with rushing juice and demonstrated high-end outcomes. He’s a strong “wait on QB” target.
- Kyren Williams: RB17 undervalues a back who still has goal-line control and consistent RB1-level finishes in his recent profile.
- Use these values to build strength at RB/WR early, then take advantage of the market discount later.
- In early drafts, target players with clear roles over players with “maybe it breaks right” narratives.
- If the room pushes QBs up, lean into it and take the falling value at other positions, then scoop someone like Nix.
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