January drafts and early fantasy football expert consensus rankings (ECR) are always a little weird. We’re ranking players before we know landing spots, coaching staffs, and sometimes even full offseason plans. Still, that’s exactly why early ADP and ECR are useful. They show you where the market is too confident.
On a recent FantasyPros podcast, Jake Ciely flagged two names that stand out as early 2026 “paying for the ceiling” traps. Both are great real-life talents. That’s not the point. The point is cost vs. realistic range of outcomes when you’re drafting.
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Fantasy Football Picks to Avoid: Overvalued Players
These two players are being priced like their best version is the most likely version. That’s the bet you’re making if you click “draft” at their current ranks.
Why “overvalued” matters in January
In early fantasy football drafts, you don’t need to be perfect. You just need to avoid the landmines in the first 6 to 8 rounds. If you’re spending a premium pick, you want a player whose floor is stable and whose path to a league-winning ceiling is clear.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
Herbert checking in around QB8 in early ECR is the kind of ranking that looks fine at a glance… until you compare it to what he’s actually been recently.
Ciely’s issue is simple: you’re drafting Herbert as if we’re getting the early-career version again, the one flirting with 600 to 700 pass attempts and living in weekly shootouts. But the Chargers under Jim Harbaugh have not shown any need to push that sort of volume. Even with narratives about a “run-heavy” identity, they’ve been closer to middle-of-the-pack in pass rate. The bigger point is this: the offense doesn’t have to run through Herbert’s arm the way it once did.
And now there’s added uncertainty. The Chargers moved on from offensive coordinator Greg Roman and their offensive line coach. They replaced him with Mike McDaniel. That doesn’t automatically mean “Herbert breakout incoming.” It just means we have fewer clues.
The ranking becomes harder to swallow when you look at who is behind him. You’re being asked to take Herbert over names like Patrick Mahomes (health permitting), Dak Prescott, and even quarterbacks with stronger late-season arrows up like Trevor Lawrence. If those guys are in the same neighborhood, Herbert’s path to outscoring them is not as obvious as the ECR suggests.
There’s also the personnel angle. The Chargers’ pass-catching group is fine, but it doesn’t scream “high-end fantasy environment.” If the team rolls forward with a similar supporting cast, you’re basically paying for Herbert’s brand name more than a clear offensive upgrade.
- Draft-room translation: Herbert is not a “do not draft.” He’s a “not at QB8” player. If he falls into the next tier, great. If not, let someone else pay full retail.
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
Jefferson at WR6 (around pick 11 overall) is the one that made Ciely do the full double-take. And it’s easy to see why.
We’re used to treating Jefferson as quarterback-proof. For most of his career, that label held up. But 2025 was the first real warning flare. His raw target total looked healthy, but the fantasy production did not. Touchdowns cratered to a career-low two, and when you isolate games with J.J. McCarthy, the weekly ceiling didn’t show up often enough.
The bigger concern is not touchdowns. Touchdowns fluctuate. The concern is usage quality and target share. Ciely’s point was that Minnesota’s passing game with McCarthy did not funnel through Jefferson at the rate we’ve come to expect. If your elite WR is living in the 18% target-share zone in chunks of the season, it changes the whole profile. You’re no longer drafting the “bankable 30% target monster.” You’re drafting a top receiver in a more spread-out, read-based offense with a younger quarterback who may not be a “rip it” player.
That’s where early ECR gets aggressive. WR6 pricing assumes Jefferson is right back to the 90-catch, 1,400-yard, 6 to 8 TD version. Could that happen? Sure. But in January, with McCarthy still the presumed starter, it’s a bet that requires multiple things to flip back in the right direction.
And it’s not like the receivers behind him are all clean, but they’re often cheaper for similar ceilings. If you’re debating Jefferson against the next tier of wideouts who might see more concentrated usage, you’re at least allowed to ask: what are we paying for here, exactly? Past performance, or current situation?
- Draft-room translation: Jefferson can absolutely bounce back and still be great. The issue is price. At WR6, you’re drafting him like the 2025 concerns never happened.
Fantasy Takeaways
- Justin Herbert: At QB8, you’re paying for an upside season the Chargers may not need to chase. If he drops a tier, he becomes much more interesting.
- Justin Jefferson: WR6 pricing assumes a full return to elite target share and ceiling outcomes. With McCarthy still in place, that confidence feels premature.
- In early drafts, let other managers pay for certainty that isn’t actually certain yet.
- If you’re taking a QB early, make sure you’re getting clear rushing upside or clear top-3 passing volume, not a “good real-life QB” profile.
- For first-round wideouts, situation still matters, even for the truly elite. The market can over-correct back to “name value” quickly.
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