NFL Conference Championship Predictions (Patriots vs. Broncos)

While the fantasy football season is in the rearview, there is plenty of real NFL football remaining. BettingPros will have you covered through the NFL Playoffs with game picks, player props predictions, and more! Here are our top NFL picks and predictions for Conference Championships: Patriots vs. Broncos.

NFL Conference Championships Picks & Predictions: Patriots vs. Broncos

Here are a few of our top picks from Andrew Erickson’s Betting Primer.

NFL Conference Championships Picks

Trends:

The Broncos hold a 6-1 record in home AFC Championship games, with their only loss coming in 2005.
Even though the Broncos are 10-1 at home this season and 12-2 in one-score games, they are just 6-5 against the spread (ATS). They are 4-9 ATS as a favorite overall in 2025. Much better ATS as an underdog.
The Broncos have covered the spread in seven of their last eight home games against teams that held a winning record.
Five of the Broncos’ last seven games have gone over the total points line.
Denver has covered four straight as an underdog — 4-0-1 ATS, 4-1 straight up (SU).
Denver as an underdog is 1-4 toward the total this season
Thirteen of the Broncos’ last 20 games have gone under the total points line.
In two starts with Denver in 2023, Jarrett Stidham’s offenses averaged 15 points per game. (He threw for 224+ yards in both starts with at least one passing touchdown).
The home team has covered the spread in seven of the Broncos’ last eight games.
The Patriots have won each of their last eight road games (8-0 on the road this season and 7-1 ATS).
The Patriots have covered five straight as road underdogs.
The Patriots have covered the spread in eight of their last nine road games.
The Patriots are 3-1 ATS as road favorites this season; 2-1 ATS as road touchdown favorites.
The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last five games.
The Patriots have won 12 straight as favorites.
The Patriots have won 15 of their last 16 games.

Overall:

This AFC Championship game matchup took a sharp turn late in the Divisional Round, with Bo Nix officially ruled out after breaking his ankle in Denver’s win over Buffalo. Jarrett Stidham (the former New England Patriot and highly-coveted Broncos No. 2 quarterback) will start in Nix’s place.

That injury reshapes everything about how this game should be handicapped — from the spread to the total to the prop market.

The lookahead lines before last weekend’s games of a potential Broncos-Patriots AFC Championship Game were nearly identical to the Broncos-Bills point spread (DEN -1.5), but those odds have dramatically shifted to the Patriots as heavy road favorites.

But is it too much?

Before the season, oddsmakers ranked all 32 NFL starting quarterbacks by point-spread value.

Bo Nix was worth about four points. After this season, that still feels right. He hasn’t been the best quarterback or necessarily the reason why the Broncos have covered spreads. However, he has helped them win games, particularly in the second halves of games.

Nix had a league-high eight game-winning drives this season. Denver was just 10-8 ATS in the first half of games this season.

I think you’ll see more throws over the middle and more throws down the field.

Stidham will take more sacks, but he’s also a guy that’s willing to let the play develop a little bit more, where Bo kind of just wants to get rid of it a little bit more quickly. https://t.co/EK5lwI3Z2P

— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) January 19, 2026

Benjamin Allbright covers and follows the Broncos closely, so I try to pay close attention to some of his analysis. He makes some valid points about the quarterback change:

The Patriots are 5.5-point road favorites early on Monday morning (moved from 4.5 at some sportsbooks). I think it’s too many points.

Broncos +5.5 (Total Under 41.5 Points)

Check out the full Betting Primer for Patriots vs. Broncos

NFL Conference Championships Player Props & Bets

Pat Fitzmaurice shares one of his favorite NFL player props for this week’s game.

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 47.5 Rushing Yards

Rhamondre Stevenson has topped this number in three consecutive games and in five of his last six. He’s averaged 67 rushing yards and 7.3 yards per carry over his last six games.

The Patriots’ backfield is a two-man operation, with Stevenson and rookie TreVeyon Henderson both contributing. But New England has been leaning on the more experienced Stevenson in the postseason. Stevenson’s snap shares in the Patriots’ two playoff games: 62.5% and 61.5%. Stevenson had 16 carries against the Texans last week, his second-highest carry total of the season.

Denver’s run defense is undeniably good. The Broncos rank third in DVOA versus the run and allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to running backs during the regular season. But Denver’s run defense isn’t impregnable. The Bills’ James Cook had 117 rushing yards against the Broncos last week.

Stevenson has momentum as the Patriots get deep into the playoffs. I like his chances to beat this fairly low number even against a tough Denver defense.

And check out all of Fitz’s NFL player props for Patriots vs. Broncos

Here are even more of our favorite NFL player props via our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.