NFL Divisional Playoffs Predictions (Rams vs. Bears)

While the fantasy football season is in the rearview, there is plenty of real NFL football remaining. BettingPros will have you covered through the NFL Playoffs with game picks, player props predictions, and more! Here are our top NFL picks and predictions for the NFL Divisional Playoffs: Rams vs. Bears.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Picks & Predictions: Rams vs. Bears

Here are a few of our top picks from Andrew Erickson’s Betting Primer.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Picks

No game will be impacted more by the weather than Rams-Bears. At least that is what the narrative will be.

The forecast calls for potential snow and freezing temperatures (Real Feel of 5 degrees) per NFLWeather.com.

Rams QB Matthew Stafford is also dealing with a hand injury. His finger was bent backward versus the Panthers.

Rams head coach Sean McVay said Monday that Stafford is managing a sprain on the index finger of his throwing hand, but there are no concerns about his status for Sunday’s Divisional Round matchup against the Bears, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports.

Still, we have seen the line move toward the Bears…most likely because of the weather and Stafford’s finger. It’s also a West Coast dome team traveling into a matchup where there is a real home-field advantage.

However, I do think this might be slightly overrated.

Chicago’s reliance on turnovers is unsustainable. The Bears’ defense intercepted 12 passes on dropbacks without generating pressure this season, the 5th-most in the NFL (NGS). +22 turnover differential. Chicago is 9-0 when they have at least two turnovers on defense, 3-6 SU with one turnover or fewer, and 2-7 ATS (both covers against Green Bay).

The “Anything But Bad News” Bears are the comeback kings. Caleb Williams has seven winning drives (per ESPN) this season, tied for the most with Broncos QB Bo Nix. The Bears have seven second-half comebacks: Packers x2, Vikings, Giants, Bengals, Commanders and Raiders. They have also only lost once following one of these comebacks this season: 4-2 ATS, 5-1 SU. However, that was after their first comeback win versus GB (Week 17 versus SF).

I think that too much of this matchup is about the QBs, when LA could dominate the trenches.

McVay said Monday that he’s “optimistic” regarding OG Kevin Dotson’s potential availability for Sunday’s NFC divisional-round game against the Bears.

However, the Bears’ offensive line could only be as lucky.

Bears head coach Ben Johnson said that LT Ozzy Trapilo suffered a patellar injury in Saturday’s 31-27 wild-card win over the Packers and won’t be available for the remainder of the postseason, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.

Johnson also said after Saturday’s game that LB T.J. Edwards sustained a fractured fibula during the contest, and the linebacker isn’t expected to play again during Chicago’s postseason run, Jason Lieser of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. DT Andrew Billings was questionable to return to Saturday’s Wild Card round game against the Packers due to a hip injury, Adam Jahns of AllCHGO.com reports.

LA has two RBs who can run all over the Bears’ defense. Per Next Gen Stats, Chicago’s defense allowed 1.6 yards before contact per carry against opposing designed runs this season, the 2nd-most in the NFL. They contacted ball carriers at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 36.2% of those runs, the 3rd-lowest rate in the league. and stuffed them on 14.5% of rushes, the 5th-lowest rate.

Kyren Williams ranks first in the NFL in rushing success rate (51%) and Blake Corum ranks third (50%). In last year’s road playoff game versus the Eagles (also a snow game), Williams rushed 19 times for 106 yards.

When facing two-back sets this season, the Bears defense allowed the 3rd-highest rushing success rate (50.0%) and 11th-most yards per carry (4.4).
Despite running two-back sets on just 7.3% of their offensive plays, the Rams offense gained 5.6 yards per carry and recorded a 48.1% success rate out of those looks.

Chicago has been a great story this season, but I think this is where things come to an end. Turnover reliance and 4th-quarter comebacks can only continue for so long, especially when facing a superior team across the board. Again, had it not been for those two crazy wins over the Packers this season (when they were without Micah Parsons and Zack Tom), Chicago wouldn’t even be playing this week.

Erickson’s Pick: Rams -3.5

Check out the full Betting Primer for Rams vs. Bears

NFL Divisional Playoffs Player Props & Bets

Pat Fitzmaurice shares one of his favorite NFL player props for this week’s game.

Luther Burden Over 37.5 Receiving Yards

We bet the over on Luther Burden’s receiving yardage last week, and after collecting our winnings on that wager, we’re going right back to the well.

Burden’s season has been a slow burn, but now the fire is lit. Burden’s snap shares were below 30% in each of his first seven games, and he didn’t play more than 51% of Chicago’s offensive snaps in any game until Week 14. But Burden has played at least 58% of the offensive snaps in four of his last five games, and his snap shares have settled in at around 60% over the last three weeks.

Over his last five games, Burden has averaged 6.6 targets, 4.8 catches and 73.2 receiving yards. He’s averaging 11.1 yards per target over that stretch.

Burden is a terrific young talent. He averaged 2.69 yards per route run during the regular season. Odell Beckham Jr. is the only rookie receiver to have averaged more yards per route run since the introduction of that statistic. And as I noted last week when touting the over on Burden’s yardage prop, he ranked No. 1 among wide receivers in average yards of separation during the regular season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats (4.6 yards), and was third in yards after the catch per reception (7.4 yards).

Chicago’s perimeter receivers aren’t entirely healthy. DJ Moore has a knee injury, and Rome Odunze is dealing with a foot injury. Both were limited in practice this week.

Expect Burden to be involved against the Rams on Sunday night, and expect him to beat this number.

And check out all of Fitz’s NFL player props for Rams vs. Bears

Here are even more of our favorite NFL player props via our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.