NFL Divisional Playoffs Predictions (Texans vs. Patriots)

While the fantasy football season is in the rearview, there is plenty of real NFL football remaining. BettingPros will have you covered through the NFL Playoffs with game picks, player props predictions, and more! Here are our top NFL picks and predictions for the NFL Divisional Playoffs: Texans vs. Patriots.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Picks & Predictions: Texans vs. Patriots

Here are a few of our top picks from Andrew Erickson’s Betting Primer.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Picks

Drake Maye’s first NFL start last season? At home versus the Houston Texans (Week 6). Behind a patchwork offensive line that has four different starters from this year’s version. Maye still threw for three TDs (including his first NFL passing TD to Kayshon Boutte).

Kayshon Boutte anytime TD bet for Sunday against the Houston Texans…

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— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) January 14, 2026

He played a ton of plays with his legs (38 rushing yards) and hardly looked out of place despite facing the league’s top defense in his first NFL action. That experience should help him in this rematch.

Maye used his legs versus a tough Chargers’ defense in the Wild Card round, hitting a season-high 66 yards. The last time he rushed for at least 50 yards? The last time he faced a top-10 defense was the Browns in Week 8. Maye has hit the Over on 35.5 rushing yards in three of his last five games (three straight Overs at home).

One of my favorite bets last week was the Under in the Patriots/Chargers game. LA was just the second top-10 defense the Patriots faced this season. Houston’s elite defensive unit needs no introduction.

The Patriots’ offensive line will have to play much better than last week…specifically at tackle.

Will Campbell allowed a team-high six pressures, including two sacks, on 40 pass blocking snaps in the Patriots’ Wild Card win over the Chargers; just his fourth career game allowing multiple sacks (Next Gen Stats). Campbell allowed two pressures in 14 matchups against Tuli Tuipulotu, two pressures and a sack in 10 matchups against Odafe Oweh, one pressure in nine matchups against Khalil Mack, and one pressure and a sack in a singular matchup against Teair Tart. The rookie will have his work cut out for him against the Texans’ fierce pass rush.

Would expect the Patriots to try and establish the run in some capacity to mitigate the Texans’ pass rush.

However, Houston’s run defense is also excellent. The Texans are allowing the second-fewest rushing attempts per game.

Erickson’s Pick: Patriots -3

Check out the full Betting Primer for Texans vs. Patriots

NFL Divisional Playoffs Player Props & Bets

Pat Fitzmaurice shares one of his favorite NFL player props for this week’s game.

Woody Marks Under 55.5 Rushing Yards

Woody Marks had his best performance of the season last week against the Steelers, carrying the ball 19 times for 112 yards and a touchdown. That fine showing has created a bubble with the second-year running back’s rushing prop for Sunday’s game, and I suspect that bubble will burst against one of the league’s best run defenses.

Marks averaged 3.6 yards per carry during the regular season. He ranked 34th among qualifying running backs in rushing yards per carry over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. This is an inefficient runner going against a lights-out run defense.

Through the first 10 games of the season, the Patriots were giving up only 79.2 rushing yards per game and had held seven of their 10 opponents to fewer than 74 rushing yards. Run-stuffing defensive tackle Milton Williams sustained a high-ankle sprain early in New England’s Week 11 game, and the Patriots lost another excellent run defender in linebacker Robert Spillane to an ankle injury in Week 13.

But Williams and Spillane are back. They were on the field together for the first time since mid-November last week against the Chargers, and they helped hold Chargers running backs Kimani Vidal and Omarion Hampton to 12 carries for 30 yards.

This wager feels like it’s going against the grain, but I think the under on Marks’ rushing yardage is the right play. (Marks’ rushing yardage prop could inch up a yard or two over the weekend, so you might want to wait until Sunday morning to place this bet.)

And check out all of Fitz’s NFL player props for Texans vs. Patriots

Here are even more of our favorite NFL player props via our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.