NFL Wild Card Weekend Predictions (Bills vs. Jaguars)

While the fantasy football season is in the rearview, there is plenty of real NFL football remaining. BettingPros will have you covered through the NFL Playoffs with game picks, player props predictions, and more! Here are our top NFL picks and predictions for Wild Card Weekend: Bills vs. Jaguars.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks & Predictions: Bills vs. Jaguars

Here are a few of our top picks from Andrew Erickson’s Betting Primer.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

Trends:

The Jaguars have scored last in seven of their last eight games at EverBank Stadium.
The home team has won each of the Bills’ last nine Wild Card Round games.
The Bills have lost eight straight games on the road in the playoffs.
The Jaguars have covered the spread in each of their last eight games.
The Bills have won the first half in each of their last six Wild Card Round games.
The Jaguars have scored last in seven of their last eight games at EverBank Stadium.
Eight of the Bills’ last 10 postseason games have gone over the total points line.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 19-6 overall as a favorite, dating back to 2023 (16-8 ATS).
The Jaguars are 7-1 ATS at home this season (88% ATS).

Overall:

Jacksonville is the more complete team, at home, in a spot where Buffalo is priced like the bigger brand. The public sees “Bills + Josh Allen” and assumes an advantage. But I’m looking at Jacksonville and seeing a team that’s playing confident football, with a quarterback in Trevor Lawrence who’s operating at a high level, and a home environment that has mattered all season.

Buffalo isn’t the same juggernaut on the road compared to at home. And Josh Allen has not been healthy in the last few weeks since he hurt his ankle/foot versus the Browns. Maybe the Week 18 bye week and more time off healed it enough. But what if it didn’t?

Also, I don’t trust Buffalo’s defense the way I need to in January. Even though it appears like they might be healthier in the first round of the playoffs. Cornerback Maxwell Hairston is unlikely to play on Sunday.

Bills HC Sean McDermott said LB Terrel Bernard, CB Maxwell Hairston, K Matt Prater, RB Ty Johnson and LB Matt Milano (illness) will not practice during the walkthrough on Wednesday.

DT DaQuan Jones and S Jordan Poyer will be limited. Both players have missed the last 2 games.

— Joe Buscaglia (@JoeBuscaglia) January 7, 2026

That’s not saying they can’t win — it’s saying the gap is not big enough for me to fade Jacksonville at home. Jacksonville has been elite ATS at home this season — 7-1 ATS (88% ATS).

Offensive lineman Cole Van Lanen left Sunday’s 41-7 win versus the Titans with a knee injury. He and cornerback Jarrian Jones were both absent during the open-viewing portion of practice. The Jaguars being without their starting left tackle at practice to begin the week isn’t a great sign.

Jones is a main backup nickel cornerback who has started three games this season. Losing Jones could be a huge loss (although his illness tag suggests he should be back), as he is already filling in for an injured Jourdan Lewis in the slot for the Jaguars.

If the Jaguars’ offense struggles, it could be related to losing Van Lanen. He recently got a new contract and has played a big role in the offense’s second-half surge.

Erickson’s Pick: Jaguars +1.5 (Lean game total over 51.5 points)

Check out the full Betting Primer for Bills vs. Jaguars

NFL Wild Card Weekend Player Props & Bets

Pat Fitzmaurice shares one of his favorite NFL player props for this week’s game.

Parker Washington Over 51.5 Receiving Yards

I think it makes sense to ride the wave here.

A 2023 sixth-round draft pick who was a spare part in the Jacksonville offense for two-plus seasons, Parker Washington has become the go-to guy for Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence down the stretch.

Over his last three games, Washington has drawn a team-high 29 targets and has 19 catches for 347 yards and two touchdowns.

Lawrence seems to love throwing to his slot receivers and tight ends. His outside receivers, not so much. (Ask Brian Thomas Jr.) Slot receiver Christian Kirk had 84 catches for 1,108 yards while playing with Lawrence in 2022 and eventually earned a huge contract in free agency based on his work with Lawrence.

Washington operates primarily out of the slot, and the Bills have something of a slot-funnel pass defense. Of the fantasy points scored against the Bills by opposing wide receivers, 39% of those points were scored by slot receivers, according to Razzball.

I think the red-hot Washington has a good chance to clear this number.

And check out all of Fitz’s NFL player props for Bills vs. Jaguars

Here are even more of our favorite NFL player props via our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.