NFL Wild Card Weekend Predictions (Chargers vs. Patriots)

While the fantasy football season is in the rearview, there is plenty of real NFL football remaining. BettingPros will have you covered through the NFL Playoffs with game picks, player props predictions, and more! Here are our top NFL picks and predictions for Wild Card Weekend: Chargers vs. Patriots.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks & Predictions: Chargers vs. Patriots

Here are a few of our top picks from Andrew Erickson’s Betting Primer.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

Trends:

The Patriots are 5-4 ATS at home this season (9-0 on the road).
The Patriots are 3-1 SU as underdogs this season (0-1 as home underdogs).
Twelve of the Patriots’ last 15 home games have gone over the total points line.
Patriots home games have averaged 46.4 points per game (6-3 over/under).
The Chargers have conceded the first touchdown in each of their last seven road games.
The Patriots have won 13 of their last 14 games (10 straight wins as favorites).
Each of the Patriots’ last five games has gone over the total points line.
The Chargers have covered the spread in six of their last seven games as underdogs.
The Chargers have covered the spread in five of their last eight games.
The Chargers are 3-5 ATS on the road this season; 4-2 ATS as road underdogs since last season.
The Bolts are 2-5-1 toward the over/under on the road this season (third-lowest over hit rate).
Under Jim Harbaugh, only the Chiefs have a lower total hit rate than the Chargers on the road (6-11-1, 35%)
Chargers’ road games on the East Coast tend to go under the projected total. Since the start of 2024, when they have played on the East Coast, the point totals have been 41, 39, 29, 30, 37, 30, 47, 47 and 56 – 3-6 O/; Under 40 points per game.

Overall:

The Browns are the only other top-10 defense in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and EPA/play allowed the Patriots have faced this season. We are all aware of the cupcake schedule the Patriots have faced this season, and I think that shows up here in the first round of the playoffs. This Chargers defense is legit (fifth-fewest yards allowed and eighth-fewest points allowed per game), and they thrive where Drake Maye does a ton of his damage — downfield.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats: The Chargers allowed just a 40.7% completion rate on downfield passes (10+ air yards) this season, the third-lowest rate in the NFL.

They also totaled 14 interceptions on downfield targets, the second-most by any defense. Maye completed 61.2% of his downfield passes (10+ air yards) this season, the highest rate in the NFL and the seventh-highest mark in a single season in the NFL Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). He totaled 2,382 passing yards on downfield throws, the second-most in the league, while his 19 touchdowns on such passes were tied for the most.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Omarion Hampton was contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 52.4% of his carries this season, the third-highest rate in the NFL (minimum 100 carries), and was also stuffed for a loss or no gain on 24.2% carries (fourth-highest).

However, Hampton forced a missed tackle on 29.8% of his rushes, the fourth-highest among the same group of players. He is also on the injury report this week, so he is likely playing at less than 100%.

Even so, a healthy Patriots run defense is going to keep his rushing production limited. Look at the splits with and without defensive tackle Milton Williams:

Twelve games with Milton Williams: 56.3 rushing yards allowed per game; 3.2 yards per carry allowed
Five games without Williams: 127 rushing yards allowed per game; 5.2 yards per carry allowed

Erickson’s Pick: Under 46.5 (Lean Patriots Moneyline)

Check out the full Betting Primer for Chargers vs. Patriots

NFL Wild Card Weekend Player Props & Bets

Pat Fitzmaurice shares one of his favorite NFL player props for this week’s game.

Quentin Johnston Over 36.5 Receiving Yards

Quentin Johnston has quietly enjoyed a fine season. He’s averaging 52.5 receiving yards per game and has eight touchdowns. Johnston has averaged a career-high 8.8 yards per target.

In his last two games, Johnston had four catches for 104 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys and five catches for 98 yards against a tough Texans defense. Johnston has beaten this number in nine out of 14 games this season.

Johnston could get some face time with Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez, one of the better young cover men in the game. But Johnston is a big-play receiver who might only need one or two catches to hit the over on this yardage prop. I like his chances.

And check out all of Fitz’s NFL player props for Chargers vs. Patriots

Here are even more of our favorite NFL player props via our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.