While the fantasy football season is in the rearview, there is plenty of real NFL football remaining. BettingPros will have you covered through the NFL Playoffs with game picks, player props predictions, and more! Here are our top NFL picks and predictions for Wild Card Weekend: Packers vs. Bears.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks & Predictions: Packers vs. Bears
Here are a few of our top picks from Andrew Erickson’s Betting Primer.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks
Trends:
- The Packers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight road games against NFC opponents.
- Each of the Bears’ last five home games against NFC opponents has gone under the total points line.
- Six of the last seven Bears’ home games have gone under the total.
- The Packers have lost each of their last four games.
- The Packers have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six games against the Bears.
- The Packers have failed to cover the spread in six straight following a loss.
- Green Bay is 0-1-1 ATS versus the Bears this season (1-1 SU).
- The Bears have won six of their last seven home games.
- The Bears are 6-2 ATS as a home favorite (80% ATS) since the start of last season.
- Chicago is 3-1-1 ATS as a home underdog (75% ATS).
- The Bears have won 14 of their last 21 home games (67%).
- The Bears have the No. 1 record ATS at home since Caleb Williams entered the NFL (67%, 10-5-1).
- The Bears are 7-9 over/under at home since 2024, and those games averaged fewer than 44 points per game (PPG). The Bears are 4-1-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2024 (2-0 this season).
- As home favorites, the Bears are 3-7 over/under since 2024 (1-5 over/under this season, 2-3 as home underdogs since 2024).
- Six of the Packers’ last seven road games have gone over the total points line (with Packers starters playing).
- Green Bay is 3-7 ATS as a road favorite since the start of 2024 (last 10 road games as favorites), and 3-6 ATS as a road team.
Overall:
Green Bay is somewhat limping into this game (although resting players in Week 18 should help, in addition to getting back a 100% healthy Jordan Love), whereas Chicago is the more trustworthy side at home. Earlier in the week, I wanted to take the home team with the points instead of planting a flag on the Bears’ Moneyline.
This rubber game matchup has all the ingredients for playoff weirdness:
- Divisional familiarity
- Third meeting energy
- Outdoor windy Chicago conditions
- Offenses that can look clunky when forced to play left-handed
Both matchups in the regular season were one-score games that came down to the final play in both instances. Note that Green Bay has never trailed at any point versus the Bears this season (lost in overtime). Both home teams won and covered outright.
I’m not overly confident in picking a winner here because this game will likely go down to the fourth quarter. And in that instance, I want every margin I can get, which lands me on Chicago +1.5, if forced to choose a side. The whole point is home divisional underdogs have been printing money (especially on primetime).
Three of the most profitable trends this year are divisional underdogs, primetime underdogs and home underdogs (all north of 52% records).
The Packers’ defense is a shell of its former healthy self, and they have struggled immensely on the road all year — 24 PPG allowedon the road versus 17.9 PPG allowed at home.
And given the Bears’ second-half heroics… a live betting opportunity might be on the Bears at a better number ATS.
Erickson’s Pick: Tease Bears +6.5 and Game Total Under 52.5 Points
Check out the full Betting Primer for Packers vs. Bears
NFL Wild Card Weekend Player Props & Bets
Pat Fitzmaurice shares one of his favorite NFL player props for this week’s game.
Luther Burden III Over 41.5 Receiving Yards
Luther Burden has come alive of late.
Before Week 14, Burden hadn’t played more than 51% of the Bears’ offensive snaps in any game this season. He’s played at least 57% of the offensive snaps in three of the four games since, and he’s averaging 5.3 catches and 81 yards a game over that stretch.
Burden played in only one of Chicago’s two games against Green Bay this season. He had four catches for 67 yards against the Packers in Week 14.
A star in the making, Burden is averaging 2.69 yards per route run. Odell Beckham Jr. is the only rookie receiver to have averaged more yards per route run since the advent of that statistic. Burden ranks No. 1 among wide receivers in average yards of separation, according to NFL Next Gen Stats (4.6 yards). He ranks third in yards after catch per reception (7.4 yards).
And if the snow makes the Soldier Field playing surface slippery… can you imagine trying to cover Burden when the footing is uncertain?
Bet the over on Burden’s receiving yardage.
And check out all of Fitz’s NFL player props for Packers vs. Bears
Here are even more of our favorite NFL player props via our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
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