While the fantasy football season is in the rearview, there is plenty of real NFL football remaining. BettingPros will have you covered through the NFL Playoffs with game picks, player props predictions, and more! Here are our top NFL picks and predictions for Wild Card Weekend: Texans vs. Steelers.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks & Predictions: Texans vs. Steelers
Here are a few of our top picks from Andrew Erickson’s Betting Primer.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks
Trends:
- The Texans have won each of their last nine games (won 7 straight first halves).
- The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six postseason games.
- The Texans have scored first in each of their last six games.
- Each of the Texans’ last four road games has gone UNDER the total points line (2-6 O/U on the road this season)
- Five of the Texans’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Twenty-three of the Texans’ last 35 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Nineteen of the Texans’ last 32 wins have been by seven or fewer points (59%).
- The Steelers are 9-7-1 toward the OVER this season.
- Since 2024, the Steelers are 6-2 ATS at home (as a favorite) and 11-5 ATS overall at home.
- The Steelers are 23-0 at home on Monday Night Football.
- CJ Stroud is 0-2 on the road in the playoffs.
- Houston is 6-1 SU as a road favorite since 2024 (3-3-1 ATS). Scored first TD in five straight as road favorites.
Overall:
Houston is the better team, Houston’s defense is real, and Pittsburgh’s offense is predictable enough to get squeezed.
They want to get the ball out quickly with Aaron Rodgers under center, and I think the Texans can stop that approach. Per Next Gen Stats, the Texans allowed a league-low 5.0 yards per attempt on passes below 10 air yards and were one of two defenses with more interceptions (8) than touchdowns allowed (6) on such passes. They allowed a 39.8% success rate on underneath throws, one of just three defenses in the last ten seasons to hold opponents below 40%.
And if/when the Steelers look to take downfield shots with DK Metcalf back, the Texans’ pass rush will be ready. Per Next Gen Stats, Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. combined for 153 pressures this season, the most by any duo in the NFL.
They earned 52.4% of the Texans’ 292 total pressures by individual defenders this season, the 2nd-highest share owned by two players on any team since 2018, trailing only Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue on the 2021 Raiders (52.9%). No other duo this season produced more than 46.8% of their team’s pressures.
Rodgers was pressured on just 21.5% of dropbacks this season, the lowest rate of any quarterback (Next Gen Stats). From a clean pocket, Rodgers completed 71.0% of pass attempts (NFL average: 70.2%) and averaged 7.0 yards per attempt. However, when facing pressure, he completed only 39.3% of attempts (3rd-lowest in NFL) and averaged 5.2 yards per attempt (5th-fewest). The Texans’ defense generated pressure on 33.9% of dropbacks, slightly below the NFL average (34.1%).
Erickson’s Pick: Texans -2.5
Check out the full Betting Primer for Texans vs. Steelers
NFL Wild Card Weekend Player Props & Bets
Pat Fitzmaurice shares one of his favorite NFL player props for this week’s game.
Pat Freiermuth Under 30.5 Receiving Yards
Pat Freiermuth has beaten this number in just six out of 17 games this season. He has averaged 3.2 targets, 2.4 catches and 28.6 receiving yards per game.
With DK Metcalf suspended for the Steelers’ last two regular-season games, Freiermuth stepped up and had six catches for 114 yards. But Metcalf is back for the Wild Card round, so Freiermuth might not be quite as busy.
And Freiermuth’s matchup with the Texans is nasty. Houston has allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season.
The under is a solid play here.
And check out all of Fitz’s NFL player props for Texans vs. Steelers
Here are even more of our favorite NFL player props via our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
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