The NFL season just officially ended a few days ago, but if you’re anything like me, you’re already thinking about the 2026 fantasy football season. In fact, there are already 2026 fantasy football drafts happening, especially Best Ball drafts. Whenever fantasy football drafts are taking place, there are ADPs to exploit. Today, I will be looking at early ADP on Underdog to find overpriced running backs to avoid. Let’s get started.
3 Running Backs To Avoid in Early 2026 Fantasy Football Drafts
Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI) | ADP: RB9
Last year, Saquon was clearly overpriced as the consensus RB1 coming off his historic 2024 campaign. This year, his stock has fallen off after a disappointing 2025 … but not far enough.
Looking at things on the most basic level, Barkley was just the RB14 with 13.4 half-PPR points per game in 2025. Betting on a 29-year-old RB (happy birthday, Saquon) to improve from one year to the next isn’t usually a winning move.
There are some reasons to expect a bounce-back from Barkley in 2026. The Eagles’ offense struggled as a whole under Kevin Patullo this season. New OC Sean Mannion is an unproven commodity, but it’s hard to imagine he will be worse. On the other hand, things aren’t all good on the coaching front, as legendary o-line coach Jeff Stoutland recently announced he is leaving Philadelphia this offseason.
More importantly, there’s just very little about Barkley’s 2025 profile that provides optimism that he can return to being a truly elite fantasy option in 2026. His volume on the ground was excellent, as he finished fifth in both total carries and RB rush share. But his efficiency was mediocre: On a per-carry basis, Saquon ranked 46th out of 64 RBs in EPA and 31st out of 51 in rush yards over expected. His receiving workload actually took a step forward, as he saw 3.1 targets per game, up from 2.7 in 2024. Still, that’s nowhere near the numbers of truly elite dual-threat backs.
Put it all together, and Barkley is an aging, volume-dependent back on an offense coming off a thoroughly mediocre year. Could he provide another elite season if Mannion turns things around for Philadelphia’s offense? Definitely. But are the chances of that high enough to make him a top-10 RB? Probably not.
Bhayshul Tuten (RB – JAC) | ADP: RB27
Listen, I love Bhayshul Tuten as much as the next guy. The explosive rookie out of Virginia Tech was a very exciting sleeper heading into the NFL Draft. His combination of receiving ability and athleticism just screams fantasy upside, but we have to be realistic here. We are talking about a fourth-round pick coming off an objectively underwhelming rookie season. Even considering how few safe options are available at RB at this time of year, he should not be a borderline RB2 by ADP.
Obviously, managers selecting Tuten as a top-30 option are assuming that Travis Etienne Jr., a free agent this offseason, will not be returning to Jacksonville in 2025. Given that the veteran finished with over 200 more touches than his rookie teammate this season, I think it goes without saying that Tuten will be extremely hard-pressed to live up to this ADP if Etienne stays put.
If Etienne does leave, there will be a very valuable opening in this backfield — Liam Coen has been a fantasy kingmaker for RBs in his time as an NFL playcaller. However, are we sure Tuten is the guy to fill that void? 65 running backs had at least 50 carries in the 2025 regular season. Among those 65, Tuten ranked:
- 60th in PFF Rush Grade
- 51st in yards per carry
- 50th in EPA per carry
To be fair, Tuten’s advanced metrics weren’t all bad: He did rank ninth-best in that same group with an excellent 47% success rate (per SumerSports), as well as 15th in yards after contact per attempt (per PFF). But it’s definitely concerning that a player whose calling card as a prospect was elite explosive ability had a season-long rush of just 20 yards.
Tuten didn’t light the world on fire as a receiver, either. He recorded just 10 catches on 13 targets for the season, and posted a very uninspiring 0.86 yards per route run (this stat is less important for RBs than WRs, but it still matters). In fact, the Jaguars preferred to use fellow rookie LeQuint Allen Jr. in passing situations; the seventh-rounder also finished with 10 catches for the season and ran nearly twice as many routes as Tuten.
At the end of the day, Tuten is a former fourth-round pick who didn’t exactly light the world on fire as a rookie. More often than not, players who fit that description aren’t handed the keys to the backfield of a contending team. Even if it isn’t Etienne, I expect the Jaguars to add real competition to their backfield. Tuten’s price will rise if he survives the offseason unscathed, but the risk isn’t worth the reward to draft him now as a top 30 option.
Rico Dowdle (RB – FA) | ADP: RB33
Once again, I do need to stress that there aren’t a lot of comfortable, let alone exciting, running back picks at this time of year. The names around Dowdle aren’t exactly pretty. But even still, I think the impending free agent sticks out as a particularly pointless pick in a group of dart throws.
Dowdle’s 2025 season was weird. He finished the year as the RB17 overall in half-PPR, which isn’t bad at all for a guy who started the year as a clear backup. However, that number doesn’t tell even close to the full story. Although he played in all 17 games, nearly half (46%) of Dowdle’s production came in just three outings. For a brief stretch in the middle of the season following an injury to Chuba Hubbard, Dowdle was playing like one of the league’s best RBs.
But by the end of the year, Dowdle found himself once again behind Hubbard in the Panthers’ pecking order. He recorded just five carries and one reception for a miserable 15 yards in Carolina’s lone playoff game (Hubbard had 59 yards and two TDs on 15 touches). This wasn’t coaching malpractice by Carolina, either; Dowdle ranged from mediocre to downright terrible outside of his brief hot stretch. PFF graded him as the 55th-worst out of 58 qualified RBs.
If I know about Dowdle’s rough end to the season, so do NFL teams. The 27-year-old is a free agent this offseason, and it’s hard to see any of them betting on him as their top option heading into the season. If we’re just hoping to luck into a good situation, I’d rather roll the dice with fellow free agent Tyler Allgeier (who is just behind Dowdle in ADP) or any of the multiple similarly priced rookies. Beyond the off chance that he does land in the perfect spot, I don’t see much that makes Dowdle appealing as an RB3 in early fantasy drafts.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
